Will SLV touch $10 or $60 First

[shortie]

1985 through 2005 silver was below $10. surely i can go back to $10 or BELOW $10 in the future. the caveat is that the chart is not inflation adjusted.

here are a couple of data points with inflation adjustment:

What cost $4.5 in 2001 would cost $5.55 in 2010
What cost $7.8 in 1998 would cost $10.38 in 2010 <<1998 Buffett corners Silver
What cost $5 in 1997 would cost $6.76 in 2010


does anybody have an inflation adjusted chart?

 

[shortie]

notice that if we exclude the Hunt brothers period, silver was hardly ever above $50 int today's dollars.

 

[ForexForex]

I believe SLV will continue down and then slowly up till the end of 2011. SLV will hit a low of about 18 dollars in about 1 month, back to about $30.00 in December. See chart below.

 

[JJacksET4]

Quote from shortie:

1985 through 2005 silver was below $10. surely i can go back to $10 or BELOW $10 in the future.

No, it can't - sorry

Remember that when silver was floundering all those years in the 90s, 2000s, etc, there was little or no memory of high valued silver because it was so long ago and really only lasted a few days - so very few people were buying as an investment hoping it would hit $50 because it seemed like such an incredible stretch to imagine. Also, people were able to buy gold for between $400-$1000. Now, if silver started to fall anywhere near $10, people would be all over it on the long side because of the run it has had.

Also, add China, India, etc. Add electronic applications, shortage of silver (the U.S. govt used to have billions of ounces, now basically none). World is not the same and quite frankly what happened in 85-2005 is meaningless now.

The only possible way silver could fall below $10:
1. U.S. dollar strengthens greatly.
2. China/India fall apart.
3. Replacements are found for most uses of silver.
4. Gold falls 50+%
5. etc, etc.

Even then, it simply won't happen. It might fall to $30, $25, maybe possibly $20, not $10.

JJacksET4

 

[JJacksET4]

Quote from ForexForex:

I believe SLV will continue down and then slowly up till the end of 2011. SLV will hit a low of about 18 dollars in about 1 month, back to about $30.00 in December. See chart below.

Interesting "future" chart. If SLV were to fall to $18 in about a month, put selling might be pretty interesting, especially since the IV should be quite high then. We'll see though.

JJacksET4

 

[BlackBison]

Quote from shortie:

I vote for $10

I am hoping that it sells off down to retest the breakout area of around $21 so I can buy some more. If that area holds as strong support it will be the trade of the decade imo..

 

[number22]

Quote from JJacksET4:

Even then, it simply won't happen. It might fall to $30, $25, maybe possibly $20, not $10.
JJacksET4

I wouldn't say never, there is still a chance of another credit crunch coming. It will bring depression, everything will collapse in price.

American with record low saving will highly likely voting to spend/inflate out this dooms day scenarios which will support PM price in long run.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

...
where are all Fib folks when you need them?

i did not really expect the Fibonacci expects to come out with there targets ahead of time

 

[zdreg]

Quote from number22:

I wouldn't say never, there is still a chance of another credit crunch coming. It will bring depression, everything will collapse in price.

American with record low saving will highly likely voting to spend/inflate out this dooms day scenarios which will support PM price in long run.

you will get the worst of all worlds which is an inflationary depression, simultaneousness inflation and depression. the US and its politicians are no different than Argentina.

 

[shortie]

From film to forks, scrap silver rush strains refiners
Reuters By Frank Tang | Reuters – Thu, May 5, 2011

NEW YORK (Reuters) - In a small Ohio town Bill LeRoy is running his plant around the clock and still can't keep up. While much of industrial America is still struggling to emerge from recession, LeRoy's waiting list has doubled in six months and he's turning away customers.

The frenzy at his company, Ohio Precious Metals LLC, is a reflection of the explosive rally in silver prices. One of four major U.S. silver refiners and among only 50 worldwide, the firm is racing to process scrap silver flooding the market.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/film-forks-scrap-silver-rush-strains-refiners-054319946.html


no shortage of scrap silver it seems... should we believe this story or other stories that silver is not readily available?