I am probably much older than you. The math (I actually have a Ph.D in that) actually suggested otherwise as I wrote above. In any case, we will find out whether Putin chooses 1 or 2 soon.
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Will Russia invade Ukraine
- Thread starter VicBee
- Start date
I am probably much older than you. The math (I actually have a Ph.D in that) actually suggested otherwise as I wrote above. In any case, we will find out whether Putin chooses 1 or 2 soon.
IMO probability has been above 50% for a few weeks and closer to 100% the past week. But way too many people are indirectly sourcing their news from state Russian propaganda.
Russian propaganda is everywhere. Putin knows how effective sending out fake news is. As most people believe everything they read on social media.
The Russian internet is completely cut off from the rest of the world. Everything passes by the FSB. They decide what can be shown and what not. VPN is also forbidden in Russia. They try to identify each person that posts on internet and pay him/her a visit if needed.
In the W>estern world everything is open and people can post anything without risking their life. That makes us more vunerable for hacking, spying...
I agree. Putin is bluffing. His behavior proofs that NATO should be more present close to the Russian borders and more missiles should be installed. Putin's behavior confirms now that we are at risk and that more weapons are needed. If not what happens now to Ukraine might happen to more countries.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ex-russia-general-warns-putin-against-criminal-ukraine-invasion/
A retired Russian general has warned Vladimir Putin against ordering an invasion of neighboring Ukraine, accusing the Russian leader of using the standoff to distract from domestic problems and predicting an attack would turn Russia into a “pariah of the world community.”
Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, chairman of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, wrote in a letter titled “The Eve of War” and posted on the group’s website that Putin was pursuing a “criminal policy of provoking war” even though Moscow is not facing any “critical threats.”
“[W]e demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war in which the Russian Federation will find itself alone against the united forces of the West … and resign,” wrote Ivashov, who retired in 2001 and has written extensively since about Russian military and international affairs.
Ivashov’s letter contradicted Putin by saying that NATO forces are not threatening Russia, while adding that the West’s nuclear weapons are under “reliable control.”
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As probably a better poker and chess player than you, I've learned that opponents don't necessarily act according to their best mathematical move option.
As far as waiting to see what happens:
All pro poker players know that you can win by sucking out on the river; but that doesn't suggest that your play was optimum--it suggests that your play sucked, and you got lucky.
It's a classic bluff most likely, designed to bolster Russia's aggressive image, so they can get their real objective, which is money/economic concessions, pipeline etc.
Engineered to produce global reaction of "whew that was close, we'd better not fck with Russia." Image building til the 11th hour.
Meanwhile blubbering Biden looks weak af again.
Engineered to produce global reaction of "whew that was close, we'd better not fck with Russia." Image building til the 11th hour.
Meanwhile blubbering Biden looks weak af again.
Psssssssss….words on the street is that Russia is getting ready to invade Ukraine on Monday 2/21/22 on our president day!
Feb 23rd is the Armed Forces Day in Russia... Just sayin'.