Will it work again?

[nooby_mcnoob]

Also, if you are going to use a cryptocurrency that a government allows, might as well use a fiat or commodity linked stablecoin which is what I am saying will be the eventual winner. That stablecoin will be run on some sort of a decentralized virtual machine like Ethereum.

Bitcoin will be more like ToysRUs: a great idea, great memories, but killed by better options.

 

[MrMuppet]

So what you're saying is the main advantage of Bitcoin is the fact that governments allow it.

If I were to pick a coin with intrinsic value that governments allow, it would be ETH not BTC. ETH actually has intrinsic value (smart contracts). No one uses Bitcoin's smart contracts. So it's actually the laggard here.

you don't get it.
BTC is the biggest chain that allows you to transfer whenever you want to wherever you want without anyone being able to prevent it. Nobody can change anything, you only can fork it and if you want to take over the chain, the only possible option is a 51% attack...which is insanely costly.

And in that, BTC is unique right now. Will it change? Probably, probably not.

ETH has a completely different use case so it has completely different macro. It's not centralized and it's proof of stake. So the guy who has the most ETH basically has control over its governance. And the last thing I want is a change in code when I have my networth on that chain. However, a lot of L2s are on ETH so price will be driven by ETH demand from these L2s, not by restrictions and bottlenecks in global payments.

As for XMR: I'm not a tinfoil hat, I'm a trader. I don't care about stuff with piss poor liquidity and no derivatives. The risk is not being thrown in jail for trading monero, but the delisting of XMR from exchanges. If the regulator pushes e.g. Binance to take it off exchange for AML reasons, where do you sell your stack? Through forums with a 30% bid/offer? No thanks

There are a lot of chains out there that are faster, cheaper, have more features, etc. But they either are too small to be secure nor are they widely supported or traded.

BTC has a futures curve 1y out, daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly options 1y out, the spread for a 50m notional OTC trade is 5$, there is an active lending market as well as a repo market for this.

XMR has a couple of exchanges for spot trading, the biggest one is Binance with 30m$ volume over 24h. Probably ok for a small fry 5k$ account, but not for me

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

BTC is the biggest chain that allows you to transfer whenever you want to wherever you want without anyone being able to prevent it. Nobody can change anything, you only can fork it and if you want to take over the chain, the only possible option is a 51% attack...which is insanely costly.

This is a good argument. But I seem to remember that the industry is converging on blacklisting addresses. So offramp censorship are still going to happen.

 

[MrMuppet]

This is a good argument. But I seem to remember that the industry is converging on blacklisting addresses. So offramp censorship are still going to happen.

That is true and it's necessary to prevent illicit transactions on a large scale. I'm all in on privacy but I don't want to end up with a rocket up my butt that has been financed by some dudes that laundered BTC donations on exchange.

If you really want to keep your privacy, you could just use BTCcore without intermediaries...as long as you don't cash out through an exchange, you don't have a problem.

Crypto landscape will change but change will be much slower than anticipated. When I started out, you could scalp fixed price limit orders on Bitmex all day and we all thought this will go away in one year. You can still do it today, so I'm not convinced that BTC will disappear soon and if it will, there won't be a huge bang, but volume will slowly dry up.

Also you must not forget that the fortunes of some very big players are depending on BTC price. So you'll always find plunge protection bids somewhere around production price

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Also you must not forget that the fortunes of some very big players are depending on BTC price

1) these are unrealized, and will largely be unrealized unless they can fool the Fed into buying

2) those "big fortunes" for those who matter are already wealthy in other ways

 

[Handle123]

Historically, if you'd backed up the truck near the bottom of a BTC bear market, and held for a few years, you would have made a killing. A drawdown of around 80% was typically near the bottom.

Will this repeat again? It kind of seems a bit too obvious to everyone now.

Possible reasons why it might not work:

1) maybe there won't be another savage bear market; 80% drawdowns might be a thing of the past

2) if we do get another 80% drawdown, it might not be near the bottom; it could go much deeper and/or go on for a lot longer

3) a savage bear market might not be followed by another roaring bull market; the days of >1000% gains from a bear market low might be over

I been trading 9 year extremes since 1991 in futures, so long as I can hedge underlying, automation takes all the signals, some attempts have taken over 100 signals like in Indexes. So since this system losses so often, I put more hedges on than needed so I can overall cover losses on futures and make a profit going with trend.But eventually system will find close to the extremes and will hold to 75% of 9 year cycle. Some years small profits of 5% when overall markets are stagnant and great years 400%. But as time goes by I have increased personal margins to 40% instead of exchange margins. This method overall makes most profits for past 44 years I been trading.

So whenever someone says it can't be done or it don't make money, I keep an open mind that it might being done already.

 

[johnarb]

Moreno vs Bitcoin transactions per day. One is growing One is not. I'll let you see which.

When did you discover Moreno?

Their IRC chats are some of the most fun, spent many hours over many days over many months over years. Attended scheduled dev meetings even though I was not a dev, they have a great sense of humor in several of their IRC channels

I've made contributions to the community project proposals

Chatted with Fluffy Pony on several occasions, easy going guy, down to earth in convos, extremely approachable even though by estimate he probably has 9 or even 10 figure net worth. He got in way too early in bitcoin, moreno and eth, and of course who doesn't know about his $1M watch

He was the lead dev for a long time until he stepped down. I'm sure you know what happened to him, recently

Liquidity matters. If you don't know what that means, you don't hodl over 1000 moreno tokens

My non US binance is shot, they enforced kyc on it a few months ago, You probably have no idea why Kraken allows trading of it

did you ever hear of x mary(first letter) r dot to ?

Did you do research on Taproot privacy features? Nothing as good as moreno's but if you combine with best practices no address re-use and only acquiring btc at trusted places like Coinbase and the likes, you should not be running into tainted coins

If you have doubts about particular btc coins you own, test it out with small amounts using advanced coin controls bounce it around a few local wallet addresses, and send to a place like Coinbase and see if you get a pushback email from them

For the record, I've never handled tainted btc's that I'm aware of and Coinbase has never contacted me that I sent them "bad" coins

Look into Tornado cash and the upcoming zk-rollups

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think you're a little late to the moreno party and I hope you're careful it doesn't cost you too much funds or end up in messy situation

Fair warning, but based on your posts, you're at the stage that you probably won't listen to me

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

When did you discover Moreno?

Their IRC chats are some of the most fun, spent many hours over many days over many months over years. Attended scheduled dev meetings even though I was not a dev, they have a great sense of humor in several of their IRC channels

I've made contributions to the community project proposals

Chatted with Fluffy Pony on several occasions, easy going guy, down to earth in convos, extremely approachable even though by estimate he probably has 9 or even 10 figure net worth. He got in way too early in bitcoin, moreno and eth, and of course who doesn't know about his $1M watch

He was the lead dev for a long time until he stepped down. I'm sure you know what happened to him, recently

Liquidity matters. If you don't know what that means, you don't hodl over 1000 moreno tokens

My non US binance is shot, they enforced kyc on it a few months ago, You probably have no idea why Kraken allows trading of it

did you ever hear of x mary(first letter) r dot to ?

Did you do research on Taproot privacy features? Nothing as good as moreno's but if you combine with best practices no address re-use and only acquiring btc at trusted places like Coinbase and the likes, you should not be running into tainted coins

If you have doubts about particular btc coins you own, test it out with small amounts using advanced coin controls bounce it around a few local wallet addresses, and send to a place like Coinbase and see if you get a pushback email from them

For the record, I've never handled tainted btc's that I'm aware of and Coinbase has never contacted me that I sent them "bad" coins

Look into Tornado cash and the upcoming zk-rollups

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think you're a little late to the moreno party and I hope you're careful it doesn't cost you too much funds or end up in messy situation

Fair warning, but based on your posts, you're at the stage that you probably won't listen to me

A post from a true believer.

An analogy. Bitcoin today is like the Facebook SITE (not company) in 2010. Eventually will become irrelevant. Potentially huge upside, but eventual irrelevancy.

 

[johnarb]

A post from a true believer.

An analogy. Bitcoin today is like the Facebook SITE (not company) in 2010. Eventually will become irrelevant. Potentially huge upside, but eventual irrelevancy.

I am a true bitcoin believer and proud of it

My post was >90% non-btc, but you choose to attack btc, lmao

I cannot imagine the level of saltiness you feel about selling your btc for so cheap and I'm glad I do not have to. I've done very well and I don't have to work so hard to grind a few $

You could have had 9 or 10 figures had you not made the biggest mistake of your life but here you are still grinding trying to trade and find the next big thing and you think you're so early in moreno, lol

liquidity matters. You were asking me how to cash out btc in 2021???

You are fucking way out of your league with moreno. I hope you put your life savings in it and make sure you get your family and friends into it

Have Fun Staying Poor

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I am a true bitcoin believer and proud of it

My post was >90% non-btc, but you choose to attack btc, lmao

I cannot imagine the level of saltiness you feel about selling your btc for so cheap and I'm glad I do not have to. I've done very well and I don't have to work so hard to grind a few $

You could have had 9 or 10 figures had you not made the biggest mistake of your life but here you are still grinding trying to trade and find the next big thing and you think you're so early in moreno, lol

liquidity matters. You were asking me how to cash out btc in 2021???

You are fucking way out of your league with moreno. I hope you put your life savings in it and make sure you get your family and friends into it

Have Fun Staying Poor

Is Bitcoin down or something? lol