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Will history repeat itself like 1999?
- Thread starter a529612
- Start date
i think what people aren't calculating is we've been in 13 quarter unmatched profits boom and the chances of that continuing are very slim. put to call is coming down hard,bullish sentiment is skying no matter what the clowns say on tv as i haven't seen a bear on tv in weeks and all i here is 13k or 14k. sure earnings have been good but with 2.6% gdp the chances of earnings turning down in thext 2-3 quarters is very high. an of course iran is going to pop back out of the box in the next 6 months as a showdown looms. the us's reputation is on the line and they'll attack int he next year as iran will never back down
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
As most of ET knows I've been a stubborn, albeit small short in ES for a few weeks. I would have thought the only chance of a mega year end rally would be predicated upon a GOP sweep in November. Even though I'm a Republican, and in fact a former GOP Congressional candidate myself, I've thought the chance of the Republican's holding a majority in the House as extremely doubtful. Hence I adopted "world view" that stocks would break in October as the story of Republican demise took hold. Alas in the past two weeks the GOP majority has fallen from a 57% bet on Tradesports to a 37% bet. What's the market done? Rallied to high hell!!! I had the news right but the directional index play dead wrong.
This could mean two things. Either the market is so incredibly under valued that it's going to RIP THE FACE off of shorts who're selling it on unimportant macro political analisys OR the macro political stuff WILL matter two weeks from now but only AFTER every early short has been run out.
I still subscribe to the latter.
Since 1994 only in the pivotal election year of 2000 has the market failed to rally in Q4. That's quite a streak! I think it ends. CLEARLY sentiment has been overly bearish and by being short the past few days I've violated a cardinal rule of being short on light volume, new high days. That means there's nothing for sale. It hasn't been new longs popping this stuff as much as shorts chasing the little that's being fed out. Century old axiom: Sell short covering rallies.
With rates low (although blipping up a bit this week) and P/E's reasonable I don't see a "crash" scenario. But I do see the steepest correction in four years around the corner or at least the odds being acceptably high enough to justify a short campaign.
I have heard for weeks that the Democrats winning the elections wouldnt be a good thing for the markets. Now it seems everyone is changing their opinion and that the Democrats winning would be great for the market. I think they are using any excuse to drive this market higher.