Quote from empee:
oil is leading a commodities bubble, gas will be below $2.50 sooner than most ppl think. I agree longer-term there may be peak oil etc etc but that doesn't justify the price run up, look at the monthly chart its totally ridiculous. Plus, look at the inflow of funds to commodities funds. In fact, when it breaks GAS will be way cheaper than it should be for a long time as trapped longs try to get out. Plus, when it tops its going to fall faster than anything you have every seen. Its possible its in that process, since we're coming off a initial top, need to see how the bounces are.
In any case, Gas will undoubted be below $2.50 way before anyone realizes it. Its going to $3.40 now since every $35 in OIL is $1 at the pump (there is a lag effect on it getting to the pump price but you will see gas dropping .60 from the peak you saw in the coming weeks).
It will therefore undoubtedly go below $2.50 since that woudl require about another $35 drop in price == sub $90 a barrell.
Realistically, if its a bubble usually you lose 70% from the top and if $147 was the top then = $44/barrell.. which fits about right was thinking $50 longer-term and maybe ratcheting up to $80 over time.
Just watch when the commodities top, its the fast money trying to monetize their cash as the FED destroys USD, however assets are all going to fall faster than USD longer-term IMHO (real estate, stocks, commodities, etc.).
Other than trading I'm long USD and have liquidated virtually all my assets. Just sitting in cash waiting for the panic/bargains.
(Plus to short commodities if can get a decent bounce and it looks like a good top). I was expecting a thrust from 120 area but I dunno if that last bounce was it.