Will everyone be disappointed with just 25bp cut?

It comes down to free markets seeking a semblance of parity in global purchasing power. As I've written here before, we American's can make $400 on a Saturday tending bar and know we can "exchange" that $400 for the labor and materials of 10 Chinese guy's manufacturing a plasma. We take it as gospel that an autoworker in Flint provides 20x the utility of an assemblyman in Tampico. It used to be American's worked 10 minutes for a gallon of gas while a Malaysian worked a day. Now perhaps we work half an hour for the same product while the Asian works two hours. Someday we'll be at parity. I'm no liberal but I am fair minded and there's a social-justice tenant saying all men are equal. This bring's us to Bernanke, Cheney and policy.

There are two distinct economic American's. One part of America benefit's from asset appreciation rather than labor and the other provide service in exchange for currency/essentials. In a capitalistic society the poor work for the rich. That's fine. That's how poor folk eat and with initiative they can try to be un poor. Hence to keep the chain afloat it's important to keep asset prices away from levels that could cause upheaval. The only people who really benefit from price shock are shorts and those seeking entrance into the asset class. Rest assured, the asset holders aren't looking out for the interest of those two groups. Is there a price to pay for risk avoidance? Of course and it manifests itself in the form of a cheaper currency.

A devalued dollar effects the asset holder very little. His assets will generally appreciate in cheap dollars so that they can maintain global parity in price. The America toiling for dollar wages suffers the most as it's they who are assetless and paying more for essentials. Just the same, they'd be far worse off being unemployed.

With the negative balance of trade and our number one export being debt how could anyone think that we'd maintain lordship over the third world? Because of our know how? Give me a friggin' break. Been to Compton? Besides those American's with know how-particuarly 6"11 power forwards- are rewarded very nicely. It is what it is.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Can you prove it statistically?

The main inflation in the US is in food, materials, energy, health care and education. I don't really see how rate or dollar policy impacts any of them very much. Food is largely political interference in the form of ethanol subsidies, energy is part politicla and part hedge fund speculation, materials are a china not Fed story and health care and education are both market failures. Do you really think college costs would go down with a stronger dollar?


Are you aware of the actual mechanism that lowers rates? Or that keeps rates low?
 
This best sums up what lowering rates does, and the difference between the 2000 cuts and the 2007 cuts:

"The problem is that the last time the Fed embarked on a campaign lowering short-term interest rates, the U.S. dollar index was sitting near 120, gold was near $300, and oil was near $20. Now the dollar index is under 79, gold is over $750, and oil is over $90."
 
Quote from YMsystemtrader:

This best sums up what lowering rates does, and the difference between the 2000 cuts and the 2007 cuts:

"The problem is that the last time the Fed embarked on a campaign lowering short-term interest rates, the U.S. dollar index was sitting near 120, gold was near $300, and oil was near $20. Now the dollar index is under 79, gold is over $750, and oil is over $90."

you forgot similarities
We didn't have inflation in 2000 and we don't have inlation now
You know how they count inflation? if something gets expensive they exchange it to something that is cheaper
so no we substitute food and gas to something else
We drive on chinese DVDs and eat chinese plasmas

LMAO
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Can you prove it statistically?

The main inflation in the US is in food, materials, energy, health care and education. I don't really see how rate or dollar policy impacts any of them very much. Food is largely political interference in the form of ethanol subsidies, energy is part politicla and part hedge fund speculation, materials are a china not Fed story and health care and education are both market failures. Do you really think college costs would go down with a stronger dollar?

regarding helth care and education
do you know how many canadian doctors and teachers moved to US when exchange rate was 1.5?
Do you think they will move now with exchange rate below parity?


You defend rate cuts by your own personal uknown reasons for some time
But it's clearly you 're biased as you ignore facts

Weak currency is never good
Countries like Canada and Australia with strong currencies and balanced budget now enjoy real prosperity. And US looks quite third world country now - just in 5 years
 
Quote from kashirin:
Weak currency is never good
Countries like Canada and Australia with strong currencies and balanced budget now enjoy real prosperity. And US looks quite third world country now - just in 5 years [/B]

You could have made the same argument in the mid 80s, with the dollar plummeting. Arguments aside, if you look at the objective history you'll find most Armageddon based arguments while appearing rational end up being specious in hind site.

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1656441#post1656441
(latest post)
 
A 25 BP cut is a certainty. Although imo there should be no cut. The market over the past week has been pricing in a 25 BP cut.
 
Quote from Dr.Greenback:

Whatever the FED does it will disappoint the markets. If it's no cut, or, 25bps.

Ya hit the nail on the head!

No Cut, 25bps, 50 bps, it doesn't matter. As soon as it's released markets tank.
 
Quote from Algorithm:

Should be no cut in the funds rate and make the discount window par with the funds rate.

Provide liquidity to the banks, don't flood the general markets.

Of course that's not what's going to happen and of course everyone will perceive a cut as bullish. So bad economic data is bullish for stocks???????:confused:

I haven't seen as many consumer companies come in light or miss as there have been this past quarter in quite a while.

bad economic data has been bullish for stocks for EONS...

only now is there some semblence of a return to the negative correlation between equity and bond prices...
 
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