will crude oil drops after QE2 ends or would Middle East ongoing crisis keep oil high

H

Happy Hopping

in 1 of the daily market review report, some trader said, " The market is thinking oil prices may start to move lower as the dollar strengthens as QE2 nears its end. That is why you started to see comments by big investment firms calling for a pullback in oil prices."

But Mr. Clueless Bernanke said there is no rush in tightening, and extended period means a few Fed meeting. So the absolute soonest if there were tightening would be Sept. 2011. So how can oil price drop?

Of course, there is the ongoing crisis in those 10+ crisis in Middle East, would that be itself keep the oil price high above $113?
 
The turmoil in the Middle East is not going to just end anytime soon:

TRIPOLI, Libya—Libyan government forces drove rebels from a border outpost Thursday, the Tunisian state news agency reported, shutting off one of their vital supply lines, pursuing them across the mountainous frontier into Tunisia and provoking a sharp protest from that country.

http://on.wsj.com/iqTpp0
 
The dollar will not start regaining strength until QE2 is completely done, however Bernanke has hinted several times that he won't allow QE2 to end cold turkey. As long as there is any TRACE of the policy, everything will keep ballooning up until it finally explodes.

This is only my personal opinion, I know I'm no expert, but I would say give it at LEAST 6 months before we see any REAL strengthening of the dollar, and only then if QE2 is responsibly resolved.
 
Quote from survivortrader:

The dollar will not start regaining strength until QE2 is completely done, however Bernanke has hinted several times that he won't allow QE2 to end cold turkey. As long as there is any TRACE of the policy, everything will keep ballooning up until it finally explodes.

This is only my personal opinion, I know I'm no expert, but I would say give it at LEAST 6 months before we see any REAL strengthening of the dollar, and only then if QE2 is responsibly resolved.
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but what about the crisis in Middle East? Even if at a certain mth. in 2012, the US $ begins to move up, would you expect oil to drop?
 
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