Will Bush get re-elected?

[Maverick74]

Quote from dddooo:

Kerry's tax increases on income above $200K have nothing to do with job creation - it has to do with huge budget deficit. Other then that you are right or close - free trade should be reviewed and changed into free, fair and balanced trade.

Benedict Arnolds should not be allowed to manufacture in China, incorporate and pay taxes in Bermuda and sell in America on equal basis with a competitor manufacturing in USA, employing americans and paying taxes to uncle Sam.

Mav, this is the plan, you may no like it, you may disagree and not believe in it, but do not complain that there is no plan.

OK fine, you tell companies they can't manufacture overseas, so they stop. Now guess what? They raise prices and you know they will. Wouldn't you if you were them? So now the cost of goods and services goes sky high but heh, we added a few jobs here and there so we're all happy right? Wrong. Those cost increases are not going to hurt the Trump's of the world but the 35 year old single mother of 3 making 18k a year. To her, that kind of inflation is going to kill her since her margins are so tight.

As far as Bermuda corporations and taxes go, should you could close that loophole but guess what? They will find new loopholes, they always do. That's what society does, the game never changes, just the rules. So this will have no long term effect what so ever.

As far as raising taxes on the rich, all that will is lower investment capital. That's less money that will go into the risk pool where people start businesses and invest in each other to create jobs and opportunity. So when you take away their money through taxation, the middle class will get hit hard since they are very dependent on those with money hiring them and growing their companies.

So far I see no solution here.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from ARogueTrader:

Here is the typical Bush voter thinking to himself at the voting booth:


"Let's see.

I have a choice between a known: Bush who has fuck this deal up and stands to make it worse over the next 4 years....

Or I have a choice of an unknown who hasn't fucked it up.

Ok, I choose Bush because I am a moron."


Either you want a change, or you want continuation.

Either you like the direction, or you want to go in a different direction.

It really is that simple.

Either you want that fat fuck Cheney and the Bush cabinet to stay in place, to load the bench with conservative judges and maintain the status crapola...

Or you want a change.

It really is that simple.

Either you want an administration that generates fear so that they can make you feel secure in their leadership...

Or you want a change.

It really is that simple.

Either you want an administration that wants to bring back union of church and state...

Or you want a change back to separation of church and state as was intended by the framers.

It really is that simple.

Either you want an administration that won't willingly open up the books on what really happened on 911...

Or you want an administration that is an open book.

It really is that simple.

We can go on, and on, and on.......

It really is this simple...either status crap...or time for a change.

Holy sh*t. The man that gives lectures on black and white thinking just gave a black and white answer. LOL. ART, I thought you were against that type of either you are with us or against us logic? Wow, your colors have changed my friend. It's either A or B. It's either yes or no. You are either right or left. Wow, ART you really just contradicted yourself big time. What a freaking hypocrite. Dude, you get the cake tonight. It's all yours. Art takes home the cake tonight for being the biggest hypocrite on ET. Good for you ART.

 

[Daxtrader]

I don't think it's fair to ask ET'ers that don't support bush to come up with a plan. It's not our job, if it was we'd be running for president. Do you want to give this administration another chance? Another 4 years? I don't. Why should you? They didn't seem to have any solutions either, let someone else have a stab at it.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Daxtrader:

I don't think it's fair to ask ET'ers that don't support bush to come up with a plan. It's not our job, if it was we'd be running for president. Do you want to give this administration another chance? Another 4 years? I don't. Why should you? They didn't seem to have any solutions either, let someone else have a stab at it.

Wrong answer. It is fair that I ask you for a solution because the fact that you can't come up with one tells me that maybe it isn't Bush's fault. Maybe, just maybe we are going through a paradigm shift here that is going to take some getting use to. The fact that you can't tell me one thing, just one thing that would do to improve the jobs situation tells me that maybe there is no solution in which all your cries for Bush will fall on deaf ears.

 

[ARogueTrader]

A woman goes home from a hard day at work to a regular nightly beating by her husband.

A friend asks, "Why don't you leave him?'

She says, "He says he will take care of me."

You don't need much of a plan to just admit that you got the wrong man in your life if you are a woman like that.

Maybe a new man would be worse, but you sure as hell know by now after 4 years of marriage what you got.

Either you want more of the same, or you take a risk to move on to the next.

Right about now, to a lot of folks, life under the last Democratic president don't look too bad...and a return to that expansive feeling, rather than the dark contractive feeling of the current adminstration has some appeal.

Ya happy with what ya got? Stick with it.

You want a change? You make one.

 

[dddooo]

Quote from Maverick74:

OK fine, you tell companies they can't manufacture overseas, so they stop. Now guess what? They raise prices and you know they will. Wouldn't you if you were them? So now the cost of goods and services goes sky high but heh, we added a few jobs

What's interesting is that with all that rampant outsourcing hapenning in the last few years, the prices did not go down all that much, actually on average they did not go down at all.

The cars are not cheaper, HMOs, medical and drug companies outsource but healthcare cost is skyrocketing. Insurance companies outsource, still no savings for the consumers? The prices at WalMart are indeed lower then elsewhere, but only slightly, the difference does not justify outsourcing. They do not charge consumers less because it costs them less to produce. They charge what the market can bear.

Outsourcing increased CEO compensation and corporate profits, but it did nothing for the consumers. So if outsourcing is stopped, it may not affect the consumer that much either. The corporate profits may indeed go down a bit, the stock market will go back to its "normal" valuation and Bill Gates may not be able to make 5bln a year, will only have a $3 bln profit.

On the other side Americans having good high-paying jobs will spend more, so corporations may actually come out ahead in the long run.

 

[jbtrader23]

JB,

OK, let me put you on the hot seat. Tell me, if you were President starting tomorrow, what would you do to create jobs? I'm listening. What would you do? See, here is the problem with you people on the left, you all shout and scream and complain about the jobs but when asked what your solution is, you have none.

Let me briefly explain to you the problem we have in this country. First of all, obviously, the recession, the bubble bursting and 9/11 all had an impact on the jobs. But there is something even bigger then that. See, for decades we were spoiled in this country. We had a never ending supply of low skilled jobs with high pay. It took decades for the rest of the world to get their act together and realize that there was no reason they could not take these low skilled jobs. I mean come on, remember a few years ago when getting your Microsoft certification certificate was the biggest thing in the world? I had friends go to school for that. It took 8 weeks and about 3k. When you were done you had a 60k to 80k job waiting for you. That's right, you heard me, for 8 weeks of your time and 3k out of your wallet, you could be making 60k to 80k. Then if you got more licenses, you could make 100k plus.

Now this was a joke. I mean the people in these classes were truck drivers, school teachers, at home moms, high school drop outs. BTW, I'm dead serious. And here was the kicker, we could not fill these jobs fast enough. I mean if you opened a newspaper, you say 300 of these jobs in the want ads. They were begging for people. I actually had a friend who recruited people for these schools to get their certification. He made a fortune. Now these people should have been making about $8 an hour but they weren't, they were making a killing. But then along came the market and it suddenly became efficient.

All these other countries around the world saw this and said, hey, why can't we do that, these are not high skilled jobs. We can train our people for 8 weeks to do this stuff and we'll work for half that salary, and that is what they did. Not just with this industry but with all the high paying low skilled jobs that we had.

The problem we have no is there are many jobs out there but they are in high skilled industries like healthcare, biotech, alternative energy, and nursing. Can you believe we have a nursing shortage in this country. We are in such desperate need of nurses we are actually recruiting women from Africa, yeah you heard me right, Africa. Nursing is very high paying job for the skill level required and we can't find any nurses. So we have to import them from overseas. I mean this is what I am talking about. The jobs are here, we just don't have qualified people to fill them. We need to get back to education, get kids taking the math and science courses again. It's so funny, when I was in college my friends spent hours upon hours with the guidance counselors figuring out which classes they could substitute for their hard math and science classes. I mean they just refused to take these classes. Same thing in high school. Guys all the high paying jobs in the future are going to require a lot of education. OK? The days were you could go to a vocational school for 6 to 8 weeks and then suddenly make 50k to 80k a year are over. I know it's sad but it's true. So what do we do now? Well, for one, we really need to put a focus on education. Two, we need to do whatever we can to get people into these fields where we have so many jobs available such as nursing, teaching, biotech, and healthcare.

I mean I see on TV all these older guys that worked in the factories that are out of work and what are they doing? Are they going to nursing school? No. Why? I don't know, they are embarrassed, who knows, but they could be employed in 6 to 12 months and maybe earn even more money then they did in the factory. Instead we stick our noses up on these jobs and let the jobs go overseas because we don't want to work hard. We don't want to go into certain fields. It's bullshit man, the jobs are here, we just have so many lazy Americans that want to make 100k a year working a no skilled job 40 hours a week. Yeah right, whatever, keep dreaming.

So anyway, I'm done ranting, go ahead and tell me what you would do starting tomorrow to create jobs. I really want to hear this. This should be really good.


If I was president starting tomorrow, here's what I'd do to improve the job market:

First, close the Mexican border! It may not be politically correct, it may alienate Vicente Fox and many legal and illegal Mexicans in this country, but with millions upon millions of illegal immigrants in this country, wages for low end jobs have been in a massive bear market. We're the only industrialized country in the world with this open door policy. If American citizens can't get jobs, why are we giving them to illegal immigrants. Put the National Guard on the border, and take meaningful and decisive steps to end it. For the illegals in this country, I don't think we should just kick them out tomorrow. But gradually, we need to return jobs to Americans.

Second, I'd end our subsidies and pandering to states heavily into manufacturing. Protecting Pennsylvania steel mills is not in our best interest going forward. End the bloated agriculture subsidies. I won't win a popularity contest, but cutting the fat out of the economy is crucial if the US expects to remain a dominant global powerhouse.

Invest massive amounts in job training programs. Invest more in R&D for future technologies (nanotech, biotech, fuel cell etc).

We are losing the 50 competitive advantage we have had in the global marketplace. Because of high speed internet access, because of economies opening up (China, India), because information is now so readily available to anyone in the world, we need a National initiative to retain our global competitive advantage. It would start in our elementary schools and extend through college. If we cut out the waste and bloated junk in our government, I think we'd easily have the money for all of this.

 

[jbtrader23]

Another way to create jobs is to let "creative destruction" work in the economy. Letting alot of zombie companies go out of business (The Lucents of the world). Flushing out companies that should have gone bust a long time ago. There's simply no way around it. That's what happens when you have a bubble economy.

It would be painful. People would go out of business, the excess of our 1982 to 1999 bull market would be squeezed out. We did it in 1990 though. Real estate went bust. People went broke. But it created the foundation for the run away 90's.

Putting band aids on the situation and pretending everything is fine (i.e. Greenspan saying..."I don't know if we're in a bubble or not"), well that's not going to help.

Either you flush out the excess now, or you turn into Japan and go into a coma for 14 years.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from ARogueTrader:

A woman goes home from a hard day at work to a regular nightly beating by her husband.

A friend asks, "Why don't you leave him?'

She says, "He says he will take care of me."

You don't need much of a plan to just admit that you got the wrong man in your life if you are a woman like that.

Maybe a new man would be worse, but you sure as hell know by now after 4 years of marriage what you got.

Either you want more of the same, or you take a risk to move on to the next.

Right about now, to a lot of folks, life under the last Democratic president don't look too bad...and a return to that expansive feeling, rather than the dark contractive feeling of the current administration has some appeal.

Ya happy with what ya got? Stick with it.

You want a change? You make one.

There you go again with the either you are with us or against us argument. ART, how is that you can use that argument but when I use to explain my policy views you accuse me of making a black and white argument. Isn't this a case of the tea calling the kettle black? I think it is.

Now look, you liberals keep asking this question over and over again. Are you better off today then you were 4 years ago. And I say YES!!!!!! I am! Are you? I don't know. Is my neighbor? I don't know. But I would say most people are. All my friends I went to college with are happily employed. Some on Wall Street. Some in the legal field, some are doctors, some are in sales. I have at least a half dozen friends making a killing in the mortgage industry right now. I have friends that work for consulting companies.

So I ask you again, who are you referring to. Now, is there a segment of the population that is not better off? Of course there is. I'm sure that 5% to 10% of Americans are worse off then they were 10 years ago. Hell, I knew guys that I traded with 4 years ago that were making a killing during the end of the bull market who now are not making squat. Some have left trading altogether. But ART, you need to understand something, just because 5% to 10% of the population is not better off, does not mean that we go and completely change course. Over 90% of the people in this country are doing just fine.

Are the people without an education hurting now? Sure. Are the people that worked for large manufacturing companies hurting right now? Sure. But come on ART, we go through these cyclical changes all the time and we will go through them again. Most people I know are doing fine.

Maybe it's you ART. Maybe you are not the trader you thought you were. Maybe you have fallen on hard times. Maybe this market is just too tough for you. Maybe it is you that is not better off. Maybe you are upset that the bubble busted and you can't make 50 pts a day in QCOM. But is that fair for you to blame Bush because you can't trade your way out of a paper bag? Maybe you should give up trading. All I know is you are a hypocrite. I also know that you have no solutions to make this country better. All you do is talk. Not just you, but all the whiny liberals out there. Because that is all you can do.

And for god sake, for the 1000th time. Bill Clinton was the benefactor of the greatest bull market bubble in history OK? It was greed and nothing else that drove this economy between 1992 and 2000. Everyone was making a killing in the mkt. Everyone was racing to buy more toys to show off to their neighbors. It was that irresponsible behavior that caused US Saving rates to hit all time lows. It was that behavior that drive consumer debt to record levels. It was that behavior that led us to this risky bubble that popped. No one saw any risk. Stocks were trading at 10,000 times earnings who cares. Companies were going to be profitable for 5 years out, who cares. That is what Clinton benefited from. Nothing else. I am glad the 90's are behind us. I got really sick of seeing kids 23 years old making 50 million dollars in stock options driving around town in their new porsche only to be bankrupt 2 years later. It was a joke. Everyone was buying new cars even though they couldn't afford them, everyone was buying mansions even though they couldn't afford them. Everyone was travelling the world even though they couldn't afford it. It was an illusion ART, it was not real. And when the house of cards collapsed, we all paid for it, just like in the 1930's.

Going forward we need to do three things. One, continue to ease the tax burden for ALL Americans. We need to change our education curriculum and get young people prepared for the future. And we need to get those who are seeking jobs into the healthcare industry, nursing and teaching. We could eliminate the jobless situation tomorrow with these sectors alone.

We cannot afford a Kerry in the White House. Raising taxes will kill this country. It will cut consumer spending to 0. It will cause companies to tighten their bottom line even more eliminating even more jobs, it will kill the stock market causing billions to disappear from 401k's and IRA's. It will shoot interest rates higher tightening the credit supply to those that need it the most.

Sorry ART, you lose round 2 as well. That's two in a row. Maybe you should just throw in the towel. What do you think buddy?

 

[cdbern]

The guys here on ET can banter over economics. Since traditionally its been a mans responsibility to provide for his family, such concerns are warranted. Women traditionally have been responsible for the daily care of the home and family, however it doesn't stop there. A woman is also suppose to support her man in his endeavors to provide by making the most of his earnings, downsizing wants and expectations, making do or doing without, not complaining (provided he's even trying).

Since you're only 1/3 of the equation, consider if you will the other traditional role of men. Protecting women and children. The economics will work itself out, it always does. But safety and freedom, as we see in other countries, doesn't come without sacrifice. If the life and well being of those you are responsible for is in jeopardy, what do you do? There's a reason men took their rifles into the fields. They knew that at anytime, what they had worked so hard to create could be taken away unless they fought to preserve it. It didn't stop them from working, however they remained alert, ever ready.

Keep your eyes on economics, but please don't become so focused that your ears aren't listening to the dangers around us. I can do without anything except my freedom and the knowledge that my children will have a life worth living. How horrifying it must have been for the women in Iraq, never knowing if their husbands and sons would be tortured and killed. How horrifying it must have been living with the fear that your beautiful daughter would be taken away and repeatedly raped. How horrifying if must have been to see your little child tortured before your eyes as Saddam's henchmen tried to extract information you didn't possess. From an American woman to an Iraqi woman, "I'm sorry you had to go through that, I wish our men had come to your rescue sooner. I hope for your sake they have enough courage to see this to the end."

Guys, the economics will work out. Be patient, have faith, be flexible. But most of all, keep us safe. There are a lot of things about Pres. Bush I don't agree with, however I know my daughters are safe. If my sons go to war, I know they'll have what they need to come home alive. I don't live in fear and as long as we have leaders with enough courage to protect our country, I won't have to live in fear. My biggest objection to Kerry is that I don't trust him to protect me and mine. Everything else is unimportant to me. Kerry just hasn't demonstrated his commitment to preserving America. Yes he is a Nam vet, although I'm not impressed with his achievement there. But after he came home, he became a coward. A woman doesn't want a man who won't defend and protect her. Do you possess the courage?

The protection of your country and its citizens is one responsibility you shouldn't put in the hands of another. They don't have the investment in the outcome you do. They have their own problems and quite possibly they don't have your best interests at heart.

Did Pres. Bush mislead us? Only time will tell. Saddam's Generals all believed the unit next to them had WMD and was willing to use them. That info reaches our ground intelligence and is passed on. Dr. Kay says that although we haven't found them, we found all the evidence they could have existed. If I have smoke in the house, I don't go to the store, because even though I can't yet see the fire, I know that its somewhere.

If there's a thief in the neighborhood, will you stay awake keeping watch? It may mean you'll have to work on less than a full nights sleep, but I'll pamper the dickens out of you for being willing to make the sacrifice for my protection. It may mean you'll have to miss a days work, but I'll make what we have stretch. All I ask is that you put our safety first.

The economy will find balance, I know you'll work hard to ensure that. But please don't neglect my safety and my future. Don't place that in the hands of the guy across town who couldn't care less.