why YM Sep is less than YM June

[trader_david]

any explaination? I would buy sep. ym, plan to hold a while

 

[dhpar]

dividend yield < financing costs of cash index

 

[trader_david]

too professional, any plain and vanila explanation?

Quote from dhpar:

dividend yield < financing costs of cash index

 

[Big AAPL]

Quote from trader_david:

too professional, any plain and vanila explanation?

The closer the contract comes to expiration, the closer it is to the cash index (parity). When the new contract is instituted, it reflects the market participants expectations of it's future value. That is plain vanilla (no sprinkles).

 

[dhpar]

no.

it is the most basic thing in the future trading (cost-of-carry principle) - more basic than pressing a buy/sell button.

using continuous compounding and simplifying you have:

F1 = Spot * exp((dvd.yld - fin.costs) * T)

where F1 is the first future contract. similarly:

F2 = F1 * exp((dvd.yld - fin.costs) * T)

i.e. in act/act annualized terms you get ln(F2/F1) = dvd.yld - fin.costs

which is exactly what i stated in the post above. QED

Quote from trader_david:

too professional, any plain and vanila explanation?

 

[Big AAPL]

Thank you dhpar.

 

[trader_david]

thanks very much.

I just trade YM, did not notice the difference between sept.Ym and June YM.

just one more question, when june YM epire, if I hold YM (bought it at 8250), I do not sell it, what will happen, just convert it into cash? or i have to sell it?