For all of these reasons and more, I think the surprising, but compelling conclusion is that you don't have to worry about it one way or the other.
In other words, the same forces that argue for dollar devaluation argue equally strongly for dollar intervention by foreign central banks.
If you owe the bank a million dollars, the banks owns you. If you owe the bank a trillion dollars, you own the bank.
For reasons of reserve valuations and export competitiveness, our monetary authorities don't have to lift a finger to support the dollar. And they know it.
But the BOJ, ECB, MOF, and a host of others do, too. And they will act. Out of self interest.
The idea that they would only do so out of charity is the misguided notion. The competitive devaluation thesis seems to make the most sense to me.
In other words, the same forces that argue for dollar devaluation argue equally strongly for dollar intervention by foreign central banks.
If you owe the bank a million dollars, the banks owns you. If you owe the bank a trillion dollars, you own the bank.
For reasons of reserve valuations and export competitiveness, our monetary authorities don't have to lift a finger to support the dollar. And they know it.
But the BOJ, ECB, MOF, and a host of others do, too. And they will act. Out of self interest.
The idea that they would only do so out of charity is the misguided notion. The competitive devaluation thesis seems to make the most sense to me.