Why waste your time?

[mbondy]

I agree with the thread starter in a general sense.

Traders are probably the most delusional group of people in finance, suffering repeated net losses and yet convinced of their own abilities to succeed... without ever translating those convictions into actual success.

Sure this guy started trading and was determined and is now a millionaire, and that guy found his way and is now a millionaire too, but there are far more people trading year after year and net losing... yet still trading. The losers overwhelm the winners by a landslide.

 

[aquarian1]

What I mean is that the majority of people consider the 5% number to mean people that are somehow rich but to be eligible to be in that part of the 5% all you need is to report the majority 51% of your income as coming from trading. It does not specify how profitable you are or how many hours you work. Do you think that most people here would consider making 50K a year trading would make them successful? My guess is probably not. Take that 5 out of 100 people and tell me how many you think are wealthy,? Probably 1 or zero. So if they knew that their probability of becoming rich from trading was essentially zero and at BEST was that they would make a living wage would they be OK with risking their life savings? I Used the number of $20,000 as an example and I challenge you to show me how the average investor has more cash to invest, I highly doubt it and if you do, you are the exception, not the rule

If a person wants a guarantee to make a lot of money become a doctor - if your morals can handle it.

I would think one needs to be highly motivated,skilled intelligent and persistent to succeed - if possible- at trading. Not so for being a doctor.

However, there is the aspect of compounding of capital that is possible in trading.

If you wanted to, work out what 10 points per ES contract per week for two years, increasing contracts each Monday where your account permits. (ES is $50 /point per contract)

 

[danielc1]

It is not only in ‘trading’, it is in everything that can make you a lot of money. People have a tendency to look for the succesfull one in a group of maybe 1000 losers. Thinking they are going to be the ‘one’ that makes it. But now comes the kicker: who is saying that the other ones are losers? Net gain in trading is a definition of succes, not THE definition of succes. Sure, people who has no money, it is everything for them... The bigger the gain, the bigger the succes? How about the learning proces, or the experience they take with them in live? I know a lot of people that thought they where searching to be profitable in trading, while they really where searching for meaning, or something completly different. If they had not try to trade, their experience would not be complete. That is why everyone has to ‘bother’ if they think they want to trade.

 

[murray t turtle]

95% of people seek mediocrity/comfort. Only 5% of people succeed in doing anything really challenging beyond going to school, holding a job, or raising their kids.

Only 5% that set out to: get in shape, play a musical instrument, start a business, learn a foreign language, sail across the ocean, write a book, make a film, host a web site with lots of visitors, surf 20' Pipeline, hanglide, etc. ever succeed. Why should trading be any different?

Traders that make out well over the long haul are absolutely committed, they have an unconditional persistence. Most 'active traders' don't even have a written trading plan, like someone mentioned, the bar is very low of those considered to have tried trading & failed.

%%
Good points, even if, partial disclosure, i play the radio more any music.... LOL.It can be tricky sometimes, Jim Rogers considers himself more an investor......so including Rogers + investors its much more than 5% profitable.[Pension plans, IRA,ROTH ,,,,,, realty; but not including some Canada Real estate .... LOL]
However since he mentioned trading again, we have to include that hedge fund with over 20 billion AUM, averaged about 10%/+ for ten years but low drawdowns LOL[Source = Forbes 2015 or 2016 , dont really want to mention the fund- they sue @ in a NY minute LOL]

Dont really know why WMT is up so much this year/bull market , lousy sector,[TGT- +JCP bearish sector] but maybe a millionaire bias, WMT made so many of them??

Maybe they read the 2001 stock Traders Almanac, May 2001, ''a new good FED head is worth a 10 billion tax cut''?? Tek stock trend 2017 is much better bull,, than 2001 bear DIA=DOW, LOL. NOT a prediction; thanks

 

[ironchef]

I agree with the thread starter in a general sense.

Traders are probably the most delusional group of people in finance, suffering repeated net losses and yet convinced of their own abilities to succeed... without ever translating those convictions into actual success.

Sure this guy started trading and was determined and is now a millionaire, and that guy found his way and is now a millionaire too, but there are far more people trading year after year and net losing... yet still trading. The losers overwhelm the winners by a landslide.

For most profession, to be at the top of your game no matter how talented you are you face huge odds. You won't make it to the top if you are not dedicated, work hard and have a one track mind.

Let's look at some odds of success in other professions:

1. There are 37100 high schools in the US, each graduates about 10 basketball players a year, so there are 371,000 aspiring high school basket players aspiring to be an NBA player. Each year the NBA drafted 56 draftees to play in the NBA. so the odds are 0.15% or 1 in 662.

2. If you work for GM, there are 200900 employees. About 1/3 are salaried. the odds of one of them becoming the CEO is 1 in 67,000 or lets say there are 100 senior management positions so the odds of getting one of those is 1 in 670, not that different from being a NBA player.

So successful people are all delusional otherwise, why play with such odds.

Regards,

 

[ironchef]

Dont really know why WMT is up so much this year/bull market , lousy sector,[TGT- +JCP bearish sector] but maybe a millionaire bias, WMT made so many of them??

Have you looked at their online marketplace and read their strategy to take on AMZN? They are second only to AMZN in the US and use the same playbook as AMZN, finally.

I think they are going to be one of the few survivors in the online war.

Regards,

 

[mbondy]

For most profession, to be at the top of your game no matter how talented you are you face huge odds. You won't make it to the top if you are not dedicated, work hard and have a one track mind.

Let's look at some odds of success in other professions:

1. There are 37100 high schools in the US, each graduates about 10 basketball players a year, so there are 371,000 aspiring high school basket players aspiring to be an NBA player. Each year the NBA drafted 56 draftees to play in the NBA. so the odds are 0.15% or 1 in 662.

2. If you work for GM, there are 200900 employees. About 1/3 are salaried. the odds of one of them becoming the CEO is 1 in 67,000 or lets say there are 100 senior management positions so the odds of getting one of those is 1 in 670, not that different from being a NBA player.

So successful people are all delusional otherwise, why play with such odds.

Regards,

In both of your examples, all of the participants, whether or not they achieve mastery, are still awarded some level of success for their efforts. Just because you're not the president of GM or playing in the NBA does not mean that you aren't getting paid or can't make a reasonable living. I'm sorry but I don't see the correlation. Most traders are net losers who never progress beyond net losing and therefore, should avoid trading altogether.

 

[ironchef]

In both of your examples, all of the participants, whether or not they achieve mastery, are still awarded some level of success for their efforts. Just because you're not the president of GM or playing in the NBA does not mean that you aren't getting paid or can't make a reasonable living. I'm sorry but I don't see the correlation. Most traders are net losers who never progress beyond net losing and therefore, should avoid trading altogether.

Most aspiring basketball players supplement their income doing odd jobs, most aspiring actors and actresses resort to serving as waiter/waitress to make a living until they hit it. Most aspiring traders have a day jobs and only a few can afford to trade full time.

 

[Esha.J]

If you really want to become a great trader, you have to hone your craft. You must put in the time and get educated.

 

[just21]

For me, the answer is always the same: "Never".

"Never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”
Winston Churchill.