Why waste your time?

d08 said:
I don't agree with that curve. The start section is correct in that our confidence explodes in the beginning, or is it rather arrogance due to being scared since deep down you know that you know almost nothing?

Then with some initial success your confidence truly skyrockets and you're on the top of the world. Then you fail and feel silly and worthless because the illusion is gone. As time passes you will have more failures BUT crucially learn to cope with them, you re-gain some of the confidence but it will always be moderate.

All this to say that after some 14 years dealing with the markets, my confidence is moderate at best because I'm quite certain the next troublesome situation will come from something I cannot foresee.
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When you confidence becomes permanent as what Nodoji said as surely as sun rise and sun set, is when you wake up every day and you are sure you are going to make some profits from the market no matter it turns out, or almost everyday, at least every week.
 
jl1575 said:
When you confidence becomes permanent as what Nodoji said as surely as sun rise and sun set, is when you wake up every day and you are sure you are going to make some profits from the market no matter it turns out, or almost everyday, at least every week.
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There is no 'sure', only probabilities. All sure traders are sure losers.
Consistently winning traders run on high probabilities, not sureness.
 
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themickey said:
There is no 'sure', only probabilities.
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Lets put it in this way, if you have a system that gives you signals that are 95% probability to be winner, then if you enter 10 to 20 trades in a day with the same risk limit, you are surely to have a profitable day. For a single trade, there is only probability, that is correct.
 
jl1575 said:
Lets put it in this way, if you have a system that gives you signals that are 95% probability to be winner, then if you enter 10 to 20 trades in a day with the same risk limit, you are surely to have a profitable day. For a single trade, there is only probability, that is correct.
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There is no system giving away 95% probability.
Probability waxes and wanes with the ebb & flow of market mood.
Yesterday's probability wont be today's.
 
Larry Williams showed one of his systems during a workshop, reported by someone who attended the show, that reached almost 100% wining probability; and there were other evidences that people achieved that kind of performance. Of course you don't expect those people to broadcast their systems.
 
themickey said:
There is no system giving away 95% probability.
Probability waxes and wanes with the ebb & flow of market mood.
Yesterday's probability wont be today's.
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You probably know that Goldman Sachs only has 1-3 losing days each year these few years. Of course they are in a different game level.
 
jl1575 said:
You probably know that Goldman Sachs only has 1-3 losing days each year these few years. Of course they are in a different game level.
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Seriously? You are comparing a single proprietary strategy to a multi-strategy, multi-asset-class, multiple geography market maker?

PS. What is this infatuation with high win rates here?
 
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