Why Was Marsman Stifled?

So, with +/-90% break even range.... thats $3 to $57. So collected $27 in premiums.
He's short 30/40 strangle... in Jan.?

Risk is to the upside... if it hits 90-100... that's triple what it is now... he would lose double collected premium. Hope not all eggs in this basket, but maybe 1/3?...

That IV isn't going to drop, I would guess options values would roughly stay the same in the next weeks.... So I hope he's drinking enough fluids to cover the sweat loss
 
New Tweet from Mars :
I expect that on D-Day IV will drop to ~ 100, and spot will be inside the range of -65%..+90%. Jan opts 25/50
 
He says he's heavily invested... he's not... he's short...

That's why I say he's got some things mixed up.

Anyway, the pain will start >70....
 
Hey Jackrabbit........so Mars is playing Opthotec.
What do you think he did to position himself? Which options did he sell and why?
This is not a baiting.... I really want to know what you think he did. Hell we can all learn from it. And I know you know this stuff far better than me.
 
algofy said:
Marsman was clearly insane, what is with this talk of his genius?
More...
Some geniuses are insane. Some people, generally those who've never met an actual insane person, conflating that fact into thinking all insane people are geniuses. This could be what's occurring here.
 
Uhm... @vanzandt read my thursday post?

I thought he shorted something like the 30-40 strangle in Jan, but then you posted he traded the 25-50 strangle in Jan... which makes more sense.

If that's correct, he does the same he always does, short vega on very high IV stocks, which usually are stocks in the pharma/biotech area with something big happening sooner than later.

Since he probably shorted about 1-2 weeks ago, I think he's already having paper losses since Vols have risen. For what I've read, OPHT will have some data coming up in the next 30 days of their 3rd phase studies on Fovista. Will have a significant effect... Either almost bust or boom...

He'll be alright when bust scenario, just the boom might be very ugly. If it hits jackpot, it might go to (and beyond) $90. So.... ouch. Short the 25-50 strangle on about $20 premium means above 70 the pain will kick in. Say he's short for 50k premium... that's 25 strangles. If it hits 90 he will have lost double that. So -50k netliq, with 2.500 negative delta. So every $1 up is another 2.5k loss.

So, breakeven at 5 or 70.... which seems like a very wide margin, but like I always have said... IV is high for a reason. The market isn't stupid. Maybe he's also got some hard deltas (stock) to cover his slightly short delta position...

But... he might be okay... we'll see... I was thinking last Friday of buying the Dec 55-75 call spread at 1.50... now at 3. So I might have missed out...

upload_2016-12-6_13-53-6.png
 
Sig said:
Some geniuses are insane. Some people, generally those who've never met an actual insane person, conflating that fact into thinking all insane people are geniuses. This could be what's occurring here.
More...

I just think marsman is ignorant... and geniuses are never ignorant.... insane people can be ignorant though... so he might be an ignorant insane person.

Anyway, he's playing black-jack with somebody else's money.... So I guess his backer is also ignorant and stupid. He should have the name "IIS"... "Ignorant, Insane and Stupid Inc."
 
JackRab said:
Uhm... @vanzandt read my thursday post?

I thought he shorted something like the 30-40 strangle in Jan, but then you posted he traded the 25-50 strangle in Jan... which makes more sense.

If that's correct, he does the same he always does, short vega on very high IV stocks, which usually are stocks in the pharma/biotech area with something big happening sooner than later.

Since he probably shorted about 1-2 weeks ago, I think he's already having paper losses since Vols have risen. For what I've read, OPHT will have some data coming up in the next 30 days of their 3rd phase studies on Fovista. Will have a significant effect... Either almost bust or boom...

He'll be alright when bust scenario, just the boom might be very ugly. If it hits jackpot, it might go to (and beyond) $90. So.... ouch. Short the 25-50 strangle on about $20 premium means above 70 the pain will kick in. Say he's short for 50k premium... that's 25 strangles. If it hits 90 he will have lost double that. So -50k netliq, with 2.500 negative delta. So every $1 up is another 2.5k loss.

So, breakeven at 5 or 70.... which seems like a very wide margin, but like I always have said... IV is high for a reason. The market isn't stupid. Maybe he's also got some hard deltas (stock) to cover his slightly short delta position...

But... he might be okay... we'll see... I was thinking last Friday of buying the Dec 55-75 call spread at 1.50... now at 3. So I might have missed out...

View attachment 168596
More...
Thanks JR
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top