Why wait for a pullback?

[Laissez Faire]

What's the opportunity cost of waiting for a pullback (i.e loss profit potential). It's 2 sided equation here.

Probablity of determining trade direction x probability of correct entry x probability of stop placement x probability of target...

It's not that easy. Which is why I said the answer comes from detailed market knowledge, i.e., statistics of how your chosen market moves most of the time.

For example, if you look at index futures or ES, it will very rarely move say 20 points without a solid pullback. ES is a market that retraces a lot.

So, let's say you recognize a strong trend higher and the market moved 20 points. Will you enter there knowing that 80 % of the time that's about where it will start retracing and you are likely to buy a top?

 

[deaddog]

It's not that easy. Which is why I said the answer comes from detailed market knowledge, i.e., statistics of how your chosen market moves most of the time.

For example, if you look at index futures or ES, it will very rarely move say 20 points without a solid pullback. ES is a market that retraces a lot.

So, let's say you recognize a strong trend higher and the market moved 20 points. Will you enter there knowing that 80 % of the time that's about where it will start retracing and you are likely to buy a top?

Without giving away any secrets, what is your set-up?
At what point do you enter a trade? You are waiting for a pull back from where?

 

[hilmy83]

It's not that easy. Which is why I said the answer comes from detailed market knowledge, i.e., statistics of how your chosen market moves most of the time.

For example, if you look at index futures or ES, it will very rarely move say 20 points without a solid pullback. ES is a market that retraces a lot.

So, let's say you recognize a strong trend higher and the market moved 20 points. Will you enter there knowing that 80 % of the time that's about where it will start retracing and you are likely to buy a top?

What's the net result of the probability of you choosing the right direction and entry point?

 

[easymon1]

I only have 15 minutes to trade per day. So I can not wait for no pull back.

Do you wait for breakouts?
Do you wait for pullbacks?

 

[easymon1]

How to trade Breakouts - https://www.dogpile.com/serp?q=How+to+trade+Breakouts
How to trade Pullbacks - https://www.dogpile.com/serp?q=How+to+trade+Pullbacks

 

[Laissez Faire]

Without giving away any secrets, what is your set-up?
At what point do you enter a trade? You are waiting for a pull back from where?

It would be too complex to give a single answer to that question. The simple answer would be that sometimes I enter right away while other times I wait for a pullback.

Like I already said I think the answer to this question is very complex and it depends on market, time frame, leverage utilized, how far the market already moved and so on.

Just look at the index futures today. I'm sure many got very bullish after yesterday's monster close. However, those who bought yesterday's close and didn't wait for a pullback certainly got creamed today.

Now, of course, if someone bought yesterday's close with 1 MES and 100 points is 0.00001 % of their portfolio, no biggie. It's still a poor entry, though.

What's the net result of the probability of you choosing the right direction and entry point?

That's a tough one.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Do you wait for breakouts?
Do you wait for pullbacks?

Hello easymon1,

The answer is no for both questions.

I trade for 30 seconds to 15 minutes per day.

If I see price going down, I go short.

If I see price going up, I go long.

It is just that simple. No need to wait for anything.

Do you wait when you go to the ATM for a pull back or breakout to take your money?

Please never ever forget why the ES future market exist. It exist for us to take money and leave like when you go to the ATM machine.

The harder you work, the more you lose when it comes to trading business.

 

[easymon1]

Hello easymon1,
If I see price going down, I go short. If I see price going up, I go long.

There you go traders. Just that simple.
youtube.com/watch?v=DmeUuoxyt_E

 

[SimpleMeLike]

There you go traders. Just that simple.
youtube.com/watch?v=DmeUuoxyt_E

Hello easymon1,

Never forget in trading business, it does not matter if you work hard or work smart or work simple.

It all pays the same.

So why work hard?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

That's most assuredly bullshit my friend, lol.

Hello easymon1,

yes, and even it was not bullshit or if I was bullshitting or the next guy is bullshitting or if the next post is bullshit.

Guess what? You can not prove to anyone on this earth that is bullshit or not bullshit.

So what difference does it make if what I say is bullshit or not?

We are page 9 of this thread, and noone have proven nothing about if pull back makes money or not?

So perhaps waiting for pull back is bullshit.

Keep it simple my friend, work smarter not harder.