Why USD so strong? How long?

jjf · Jan 20, 2009

Quote from moarla:

at least obama is popular all over the world: about 5 bill of people...
dont know if he is popular in the USA,...
you idiot jjf

watch what happens.
foreigners want a socialist US, but US is built on capitalist values.

you are right M, someone is going to be proven an idiot.

moarla · Jan 20, 2009

its buldt in the market that we will go under the lows again.... money in money out, at the moment onlyOUT

nothing to do with news presidents or blabla

or would you buy a share of a bank now? car maker? etc.etc. (i dont speak about daytraders...)

eminitrader007 · Jan 20, 2009

Quote from jficquette:

Yes the economy has been pretty bad or so all the dems say so.

Well you were the one who said it.....didn't you just say that a strong economy = strong dollar and a weak economy = weak dollar?

If that's the case then our economy has been terrible the last 8 years.

Stok · Jan 20, 2009

But what about all those T's of $$ we are printing and pumping out into the system.

Our debt level has gone up what, 3x in like 1-2 years?

Seems that the USD will eventually roll back over....but for now, wow, very strong.

Nikolas G · Jan 20, 2009

Quote from Stok:

USD rocking....Please give your theories/reasons why and is the ride over anytime soon?

TIA!

The question that should be asked is why has the EUR been so strong for the past 7 years. The drop in the USD had NOTHING to do with fundamentals, but simply with hedge funds seeking profit by buying high yieldering currencies funded by lower yielding currencies: And voila you have a currency bubble.

FOREX is not driven by fundamentals, never has!

jjf · Jan 20, 2009

Quote from moarla:

its buldt in the market that we will go under the lows again.... money in money out, at the moment onlyOUT

that is exactly what I said.
money sidelined = dollar up

jjf · Jan 20, 2009

I am just watching the parade at the moment.
Has someone just died.
It looks like a funeral, maybe shades of things to come.

independenceair · Jan 20, 2009

The real reason for the dollar rising is that it looks worse for the other currencies..so there is some repatriation.
Can't go that much lower than a quarter point on interest rates....maybe the stimulus to come will have a quick effect on data...sharp rate uptick may be in order(but then wouldn't stocks be climbing on the same hope ?)

4XQs · Jan 20, 2009

Here's what I think: Yes, we all know the amount of treasury bills that needs to be printed this year. But there will be massive auctions in the UK and the Euro-zone as well, which means that the USD might not be as affected as one initially might think.

Now the JPY on the other hand is interesting - what are they gonna do? BoJ are talking but not intervening. Their banks probably are holding some junk based on US homeprices as well, but how bad can this be compared to the shit they've been holding forever. I guess the biggest difference is that their bond-holders are mainly domestic and not foreign.

Any comments on my thoughts?

jjf · Jan 20, 2009

Quote from independenceair:

The real reason for the dollar rising is that it looks worse for the other currencies..so there is some repatriation.
Can't go that much lower than a quarter point on interest rates....maybe the stimulus to come will have a quick effect on data...sharp rate uptick may be in order(but then wouldn't stocks be climbing on the same hope ?)

You will probably want to see the market bottom out before the dollar slides off.