Why trend trading does not work?

marketsurfer · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from intradaybill:

Either/or fallacy. When I trade I don't care whether there is a trend or if I am fading anything. It is all about probabilities. Good traders sometimes go along the trend and sometimes against it. Anything else is too dogmatic for me even if it works for others.

I went against the trend last week and I made easy money. Those who were afraid to go against it actually were handed their heads:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=223225

Just do what experience tell you. Forget about trends. Those are illusions.

I like your style. Great insight and deep understanding.

Surf

intradaybill · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

I like your style. Great insight and deep understanding.

Surf

Thanks surf. The important thing about trading is not to get stuck in a particular mode of operation. You have to be able to make swift changes to your style. Today maybe is a good time for a swing. Tomorrow for intraday. Next week for trend following. The week after for positions. Plus, you have to have a way of measuring the probability of success of these things for making an intelligent choice.

The market rewards adaptability more than anything else.

marketsurfer · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from intradaybill:

Thanks surf. The important thing about trading is not to get stuck in a particular mode of operation. You have to be able to make swift changes to your style. Today maybe is a good time for a swing. Tomorrow for intraday. Next week for trend following. The week after for positions. Plus, you have to have a way of measuring the probability of success of these things for making an intelligent choice.

The market rewards adaptability more than anything else.

Exactly, fixed systems get crushed. Flexibility is key in the ever changing markets.

Froglet · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from intradaybill:

Either/or fallacy. When I trade I don't care whether there is a trend or if I am fading anything. It is all about probabilities. Good traders sometimes go along the trend and sometimes against it. Anything else is too dogmatic for me even if it works for others.

I went against the trend last week and I made easy money. Those who were afraid to go against it actually were handed their heads:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=223225

Just do what experience tell you. Forget about trends. Those are illusions.

It's obvious there is one thing in common and that's trading the setup that you find most profitable. Being profitable requires you to adapt & it also requires you to use COMMON SENSE !!!

People are confused about trading a trend as opposed to fading something.

BULLSHET = FADING a GAP UP AND RUN scenario. (PERIOD) Dont' care who you are, what your call is, that is just baloney. As was mentioned earlier, it goes back to money management, risk/reward entry. NOTHING ELSE matters.

Ask yourself, in a gap up and run scenario, what would you be doing? Trying to fade? On what grounds? Those that have traded and spot these setups are playing the LONG SIDE, only an idiot would try to fade it.

But of course time frame and context plays a rolle as well, you saying you fade an intraday trade range is VERY MUCH diff't than fading a longer term trend.

EPrado · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

They must be making some money to survive that long!

right?

They all work for a firm that gives them plenty of room. And lets them continue based on their success from years ago.

Lucrum · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Exactly, fixed systems get crushed. Flexibility is key in the ever changing markets.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=123557&highlight=gold

EPrado · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from b.hull:

While trend following may have its merits, I have always suspected the critical thinking is left to those who initiate the trends, the fundamenatal analysts. Trend followers are left to surmise the direction of the trends and are typically "late to the party".

On list of strategies that I have seen over the years, fundamental analysis is at the bottom. It may have worked years ago, but in todays trading is basically useless.

EPrado · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Exactly. MosT technical t trend traders are turned into turtle soup.

Surf..you are making it really hard to be your last friend on here with this BS.

EPrado · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from plyka:

They are bitching because Maria screwed them? I know she's a tad bit older now, but that would still be a point of applause for me...not bitching that's for sure.

It was when she came on tv late one afternoon and talked about her dinner with Bernanke. He had made some off hand comment about how the mkt did not interpret what he said correctly. SP's fell like 20 handles in 2 min. Was ugly.

As far as Maria.....she could play fullback for The Giants.

Nine_Ender · Jul 12, 2011

Quote from tradingjournals:

Stupid answer.

What makes you think I do not know what you think you know?

Trends are a consequence of the negative sum game. That is why there is and there will always be trends. Those who are skilled and/or luck may think it is because of the trend, while it could be that it is just a reflection that they are among the skilled/lucky pool.

Mark: You made a good post!

Its painfully obvious that you don't know much of anything about trading. The $100 journal you created was so ridiculously contrived no real trader would post it.

All I ever see you do is look at short term swings in EUR/USD and SPY. That's not trend trading buddy !!! If you are going to go out of your way looking for random walk type trades, well no wonder you are clueless on trends.