Why Trading is so Hard

[PistolPete]

And before the "educated " come blurting out win rate is'nt everything , its not and other side of expectancy Risk/Reward is still important but given the above WR rates higher , Simple maths . Trade accurately , trade quickly and trade frequently and the above will be understood

2 systems with the same expectancy but one with a 40% WR and the other with a 60% WR , the 60 will have a smoother curve ... FACTS dont they $&% up fallacies

and for the " educated " a smooth curve has smaller DDs and reduced ROR

 

[PistolPete]

AND trading is hard because you need to know all this shit IF you want to rise above the mediocre who just " eek " out a living

 

[schweiz]

I would suggest handtesting theories ideas that you have, hand test until your eyes bleed.

If you do it long enough your pattern recognition skill will improve and you will see things that your typical retail trader will not.

That is how I learned.

Most people don't understand that. They just test quickly some indicators and want fast results.
You need to go slowly and analyze every trade, why he is successful or why he is not, if the entry was, good as wel as the exit, why you took the trade or why you missed him...

I see many people program something quickly, run it on the computer and when the result pops up they try to optimize the parameters to have the best result based on past. No wonder most of them never make money.
To know the "WHY?" you should analyze everything on the bottom level of it. A complete drilldown.

 

[schweiz]

We all know that you are a stud, Jessika Alba is your girlfriend and you trade from a beachside property in Nice However, the world is full of losers like myself that still manage to eek out a living in the market

If that is the level you want to discuss on you will have to find somebody else.
I am sure you are not a loser in trading but you are when it concerns ego.
If however you would still be trying to survive in the market, your kind of reaction shows where your problem is.
As a number of people liked my posting it is clear that I am not the type of person you insinuate, as they would also be studs...

PS: I live indeed on the border of the Mediterranean sea, but not in Nice.

It is Jessica Alba, not Jessika. I checked it on her passport, so I am sure.

 

[schweiz]

Not making money on a subset of trades is not the same as losing money.

50 trades is not a "subset" anymore. I never have 3 losses in a row. This is a result of the way I trade; if I have a losing trade, the next ones I manage in another way till I recovered my loss of the previous one. After that happened I go back in "normal mode".
Making no money in 50 trades means you have no clue or you are just gambling. However gambling would give you statistically more winning trades then your "trading".
Small but very important detail is that I am a daytrader. Things can be different for LT traders, but even then, 50 trades and still losing money...

PS: read posting #80 from PistolPete. You might still learn something although you think you know everything already.

 

[sle]

2 systems with the same expectancy but one with a 40% WR and the other with a 60% WR , the 60 will have a smoother curve ... FACTS dont they $&% up fallacies

Well, assuming equal long term expectation, a high frequency strategy that has a win rate of 40% would have a drastically smoother curve vs a medium frequency strategy that has a win rate of 60%. That too is a fact

Nobody is disputing that it's better to be rich and famous than sick and poor. However, people make money in the markets in all sorts of ways. Many UHF players have win rates of 51% and plenty of them have intraday stretches of 1000s of losing trades. Many vol strategies (the relative value ones, not just "selling premium") have winning rates of 40%. For example, I'd rather add a strategy with lower win rate, but higher pnl/tradevalue and/or better distributional characteristics.

and for the " educated " a smooth curve has smaller DDs and reduced ROR

Assuming symmetric distribution, right?

You might still learn something although you think you know everything already.

Oh, I certainly have plenty to learn, from people here and otherwise. However I doubt the sources of that knowledge will be you or PistolPete.

 

[schweiz]

Oh, I certainly have plenty to learn, from people here and otherwise. However I doubt the sources of that knowledge will be you or PistolPete.

Your statement just confirmed that you are one of those who thinks he knows everything. If you cannot see the value in other people's postings (because of missing intelligence, feeling of supremacy or being full of yourself) you assume they have no value. That's how you miss opportunities. It is also know that these people do not realize it themselves. Vicious circle.

You will surely not get it from me as I never post personal trading knowledge here. Just basic things.

 

[volpri]

Win rate is VERY important. So is average win as opposed to average loss.

 

[schweiz]

Win rate is VERY important. So is average win as opposed to average loss.

Win rate is VERY important if average win is bigger then average loss.

 

[PistolPete]

I certainly have plenty to learn

More than some

However I doubt the sources of that knowledge will be you or PistolPete

Would you like fries with that

stretches of 1000s of losing trades

eek

Trade accurately

Something you clearly struggle with , Fries ?