Yeah, because we have to spoon feed these babies or they will cry? You think the hedge funds care as they take your monies? They will also, take every last cent out of your pockets! Arrogant people in the stockmarket lose the most monies! They believe their BS as they lose their monies!
Why Trading is so Hard
- Thread starter John9999
- Start date
Yeah, because we have to spoon feed these babies or they will cry? You think the hedge funds care as they take your monies? They will also, take every last cent out of your pockets! Arrogant people in the stockmarket lose the most monies! They believe their BS as they lose their monies!
- Most people don't have enough capital, or current income to support the fight
- There is no real place to practice, you are competing against some sophisticated MotherF*****
- You have no edge, or have not taken the time to develop a real edge
- you are not patient enough to execute the edge even if you have one
- It takes many many years of study to get really good, people don't have the patience to take the time to learn
- People are lazy
Interested to hear opinions from guys that have long term expirence in this realm, like @sle or @rallymode (@destriero if you want to weigh in?). What returns do you guys think are realistic and sustainable for an intelligent retail trader staying at relatively small size (say 500k - 1MM)?
Discounting having a serious edge, there still seem to be a few low-hanging iterative refinements available with modeling high level market tendencies and being willing to eat more volatility as long as you’re confident it still has no risk of ruin.
A stock index makes 9% CAGR or whatever over the long haul. Studies have found that a more diversified portfolio with mild leverage can add a few hundred bps to that. There’s a few known phenomena like consistent vol con tango and the inability to sustain very high IVs over the long haul that allow for capturing excess returns in certain market conditions if you size properly, although they may be few and far in between.
Where does the curve for trading drop off or become really path dependent? Trading is so far from a binary process that I have a hard time pinning down what I should even be aiming for. Thoughts on any of the above?
Discounting having a serious edge, there still seem to be a few low-hanging iterative refinements available with modeling high level market tendencies and being willing to eat more volatility as long as you’re confident it still has no risk of ruin.
A stock index makes 9% CAGR or whatever over the long haul. Studies have found that a more diversified portfolio with mild leverage can add a few hundred bps to that. There’s a few known phenomena like consistent vol con tango and the inability to sustain very high IVs over the long haul that allow for capturing excess returns in certain market conditions if you size properly, although they may be few and far in between.
Where does the curve for trading drop off or become really path dependent? Trading is so far from a binary process that I have a hard time pinning down what I should even be aiming for. Thoughts on any of the above?
I would hate to have your trade plan
Trading is a zero-sum game. Your profits come at the cost of someone else. Why would someone give their money? Its that simple.
If that's the case you should or stop immediately, or throw away that system and build a real one.
Make no money after +50 trades??????
If the overall expectation is positive, why not?
Don't want to speak for @southall, but aren't long term trend capturing systems have this kind of characteristics? I m thinking Turtle traders.
Because making 50 trades without making profits is the ultimate proof of the inability to build a system that would perform even average of what you might expect.
There should be a minimum of positive expectation. 50 trades without making profits will result in trading to make nickels and dimes. That's not the level of positive expectation a capable trader will accept. The risk reward ratio will be massively out of line with what would be the minimum necessary to take the risk of 50 trades.