K, here’s your satori moment ... Your reason to engage with markets is at the point of entry, right? That’s your WHY. Your highest RISK is at the point of entry. Managing trade, once it’s in profit, is about maximizing returns.
Why trading educators talk about entries 95% of the time?
- Thread starter VEGASDESERT
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Not sure I just had a satori moment just yet..
Yes you enter because you believe you're buying low in a trading range or at the start
of a breakout or whatever BUT, whats next?
Like I said in my original post, if you simply put a reasonable target and equal stop,
guaranteed you'll barely be above 50% success probably right at 50%.
What I'm getting at is how the market unfolds after you enter is how the profit is made
but you don't hear much about that. Profit taking and stop loss needs
to be adjusted as new info comes in. Thats my belief anyway..
Very few traders and/or educators will explain how the trade unfolds after they enter the trade especially those on twitter / stocktwits that have text limitations on the characters for a message post.
Also, the duration of the trade is important too. For example, if you're talking to a trader that typically has 1 - 2 minutes duration per trade...its an unrealistic expectation to want that person to explain everything else beyond the trade as it unfolds to you.
In contrast, if you're talking about a trade that last hours, days or weeks...its realistic to explain things as it unfolds.
Simply, give an example of the duration of the trade and someone can then tell you what's realistic to be explained to you as the trade unfolds.
Something else, if you're in a one on one conversation (nobody else involved), you should expect to be given a little more info about the trade versus being in a live room with others posting their commentaries / questions to someone in the middle (open) of a trade.
Try it yourself...take the time to explain your trades from start to finish via text messages while you're in the middle of a trade. Not easy to do. Yet, if you do it all in hindsight to make the explanations look pretty...
Well, we all know what that (hindsight) leads to the type of discussions.
wrbtrader
um..is this really what people talk about on here? shouldnt the question be how do i exit a trade with significant profits. i promise you this. if your entry is sound you have time to think about your exit.
I don't think he's talking about "thinking".
I believe he's talking about someone explaining (as in writing / talking) it to him as it unfolds beyond just the trade entry.
wrbtrader
99% of trading educators are FoS.
That said, consistently getting good entries is in many ways all that matters in trading. You can't "manage" -EV into +EV, whereas almost any method of managing trades will produce profits given a set of +EV entries.
Risk management and proper position sizing are critical for surviving the rough and tumble of live markets, as well as statistically inevitable drawdowns, but they're no good if you're not making the right plays to begin with.
The edge is within the sell - buy price.
Entry is as important as exit.
A setup is at least,
1 Entry, a 1 TP, an 1 SL and 1 Size.
It’s an exposure to a risk for a return.
You can’t really have unknowns,
At least you need reliable approximation.
Otherwise you can’t price and take your bet.
You can lose a trade for being too early,
But you can always de-leverage and loosen up.
Exposure is ultimately what we control.
There is a difference btw wet toes and deep diving.
Average buy < Average sell ≈ Edge
Entry :
Don’t buy weakness / sell strength
...
Exit :
Don’t fold winners / hold losers
...
Size :
Don’t over bet
...
Each variable has its own problems.
Without edge and over time,
1:1 trades win 1/2 = 0 - costs
2:1 trades win 1/3 = 0 - costs
1:2 trades win 2/3 = 0 - costs
You can win 1/2+ with 1:1 trades thanks to bias
(momentum, mean reversion, ...)
The problem I see is ...
People have wrong model to the hundredth decimal,
When you better have a sound one rounded to the digit.
Even though 1 tick better entry is 2 ticks earned.
And it can make a huge difference over time.
Entry is as important as exit.
A setup is at least,
1 Entry, a 1 TP, an 1 SL and 1 Size.
It’s an exposure to a risk for a return.
You can’t really have unknowns,
At least you need reliable approximation.
Otherwise you can’t price and take your bet.
You can lose a trade for being too early,
But you can always de-leverage and loosen up.
Exposure is ultimately what we control.
There is a difference btw wet toes and deep diving.
Average buy < Average sell ≈ Edge
Entry :
Don’t buy weakness / sell strength
...
Exit :
Don’t fold winners / hold losers
...
Size :
Don’t over bet
...
Each variable has its own problems.
Without edge and over time,
1:1 trades win 1/2 = 0 - costs
2:1 trades win 1/3 = 0 - costs
1:2 trades win 2/3 = 0 - costs
You can win 1/2+ with 1:1 trades thanks to bias
(momentum, mean reversion, ...)
The problem I see is ...
People have wrong model to the hundredth decimal,
When you better have a sound one rounded to the digit.
Even though 1 tick better entry is 2 ticks earned.
And it can make a huge difference over time.
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I can get better than 60% win rate and given a following wind 5x's the profit to SL at times if not more. M1 charts and jumping on Momo in markets where Momo persists, not rocket science.
But the reason why is, entries are a lot easier to teach, you can pick a setup and get a good win rate from this setup and you can wait for this setup to come, where as Exit your in, it's live and if you wait for a setup going in the opposite direction you'll give too much back.
Exiting at a loss or profit are the tricky things, get greedy and market can soon reverse and take away your profit, don't get greedy and you'll never get the big profits relative to SL.
But the reason why is, entries are a lot easier to teach, you can pick a setup and get a good win rate from this setup and you can wait for this setup to come, where as Exit your in, it's live and if you wait for a setup going in the opposite direction you'll give too much back.
Exiting at a loss or profit are the tricky things, get greedy and market can soon reverse and take away your profit, don't get greedy and you'll never get the big profits relative to SL.
But if the set up is so great, then there is nothing else to know just set your target
= to your risk and your done.
Thats why I don't believe great setups really exist, I mean they do, but they come around
every now and then and happen too fast, but over the long run the vast majority of setups you take are so so.
= to your risk and your done.
Thats why I don't believe great setups really exist, I mean they do, but they come around
every now and then and happen too fast, but over the long run the vast majority of setups you take are so so.