Why to short the Canadian Dollar

Quote from Ivanovich:

The FXCM SSI data is completely coincidental as an indicator. Obviously, as a trend reaches extreme levels, more and more folks will take a position on the other side. Therefore, this indicator will continue to indicate more gains the more extreme a position goes.

At the very end of the trend (the top or the bottom), this trend will signify a continuance of that trend, and buying (or selling) into it at that time will prove fatal.

I put no stock in this indicator.
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0.9117...
 
Quote from kashirin:

at what currency rate canadian economy will become bigger than american?
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er it would have to fall to like $20 american to $1 canadian for that

maybe more - maybe 40 or 50 to 1
 
the more one sided a panic becomes, the better the entry

for a dollar bottom you need to see the world throwing in the towel


foreign people refusing dollars as payment, people in the street talking about how shit the dollar is, people moving all their assets outside of the USD, just no hope

has to be a "no brainer trade shorting the USD"

its happening.....
 
Quote from Poole:

the more one sided a panic becomes, the better the entry

for a dollar bottom you need to see the world throwing in the towel


foreign people refusing dollars as payment, people in the street talking about how shit the dollar is, people moving all their assets outside of the USD, just no hope

has to be a "no brainer trade shorting the USD"

its happening.....
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Already a no brainer with the CAD. It's a one way, no risk argument.
 
I understand the context of being a contrarian. However, sometime when the prevailing trend is extremely obvious and backed by undisputable fundamentals, it doesn't necessary hurt to go along with the crowd. (i.e. short the USD)

When guys like Buffet and Jim Rogers are running away from the US dollars, you really got to have great wisdom and courage to go against them. Though of course they are never always right.

A rally in the US dollars will almost certainely come sooner or later, but how long will it really last when more bad news are bound to come?
 
I think the USD has so many bad things happening that it's still too early to find a bottom. Forex trends tend to last for decades, not months! Look how many years the CAD was in the dumps, down to 1.64/US at times. I don't think the USD will change until either Iraq is fixed, which is still looking like its never going to happen, or China stops becoming the next world super power which I also don't see happening. China dumping US assets is what I have been waiting to actually hear from them for the last couple years and we finally got confirmation. USD will only change course when theres confidence in the political leadership and foreign wars which turn into quagmires stop occuring on a regular basis. Wrose case scenario, Iran being attacked with US support would most likely result in a massive USD selloff.
 
I am out of my short at the moment with some profits. I want to resell from higher levels.

Instead I bought the AUD dip today at .9155 in the DEC futs. Oil and gold are still way too strong despite this carry unwinding, so they should remain supported for a while.

We'll see how that works.
 
Do you see how that 4 cent rally doesn't even make a blip, I am bullish for the Canadian Dollar.

The US is an empire in decline, all hail Canada!

:) Jokes aside, but I really do believe our American friends should park some of their savings in Canadian dollars. I think if we look at Canada's fundamentals, you can see its a very healthy country to do business, and I dont' see investors turning away from that.

Sikh Investor
 
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