Why to short the Canadian Dollar

Quote from sim03:

The reports I posted links to have nothing to do with "% of traders" and everything to do with the aggregate value of the long and short positions at each of those dealers. Whenever you see references to "% of traders," that's just sloppy writing, including on DailyFX (shocking, I know). Laugh all you want, but at least try to understand what it is you are laughing about.

I do agree that such reports are probably of limited value to the casual outside observer, except at significant technical points, where the majority is usually wrong. Nevertheless, one of those dealers is running two managed currency funds (with different leverage), based on that dealer's published sentiment indicator, and both funds have been performing surprisingly well so far.
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my comments were in no way meant that i was laughing at you personally, no insult meant

i think the best forex position reports are probably the CFTC data on forex positions (but just the spec positions), broker reports such as oanda and others I have not found to be that useful
 
None taken, so no problem at all.

Personally, I don't use either COT or dealers' sentiment reports in any way as part of my trading. If others do, more power to them. I put the links up there in reply to a question.

However, this stuff certainly can be fun to look at, in the middle of the night, while waiting for a setup to form. Oanda's disclaimer actually begins by stating "This information is provided to your for entertainment value only." Great, that's always confidence-inspiring.
 
Quote from QuantPlus:

Is there any actual PROOF...
That this acts as a contrarian indicator...
Or do people just assume these things.

Since a smart high school student...
Could prove or disprove your assertion in about 2 hours...
It's hard to see how this could be of any value either way.
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The FXCM SSI data is completely coincidental as an indicator. Obviously, as a trend reaches extreme levels, more and more folks will take a position on the other side. Therefore, this indicator will continue to indicate more gains the more extreme a position goes.

At the very end of the trend (the top or the bottom), this trend will signify a continuance of that trend, and buying (or selling) into it at that time will prove fatal.

I put no stock in this indicator.
 
Yet another big day for the Cdn dollar. Where does it stop?

Bank of Canada lowered it's growth estimate for 2008 for the Cdn economy to 2.3% from 2.6%. Should give it some room not to raise rates. Also, Cdn inflation should be non issue given that Cdn retailers are lowering prices to reflect the increase in the value of the Cdn dollar.

Are we ready to bounce yet?
 
Quote from plugger:

Yet another big day for the Cdn dollar. Where does it stop?

Bank of Canada lowered it's growth estimate for 2008 for the Cdn economy to 2.3% from 2.6%. Should give it some room not to raise rates. Also, Cdn inflation should be non issue given that Cdn retailers are lowering prices to reflect the increase in the value of the Cdn dollar.

Are we ready to bounce yet?
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I don't know, but this market is truly insane. This type of move is unprecedented. Trying to call a bounce would be literally standing in front of a train. It will not stop, even if the US showed massive amounts of positive data and Canada was on the brink of financial chaos. It's just going to go.

Get out of the way of it.

On the plus side, the strength of the Loonie is certainly sowing the seeds of it's own destruction at this level. All you have to do is be patient.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

I don't know, but this market is truly insane. This type of move is unprecedented. Trying to call a bounce would be literally standing in front of a train. It will not stop, even if the US showed massive amounts of positive data and Canada was on the brink of financial chaos. It's just going to go.

Get out of the way of it.

On the plus side, the strength of the Loonie is certainly sowing the seeds of it's own destruction at this level. All you have to do is be patient.
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If you met me, you'd swear you see train wheel impressions on my forehead.

I should revise this thread title:

'Do you want to committ financial suicide? Short the canadian dollar'
 
Ivan, you're right. This thing seems unstoppable. I'm having a hard time believing this. Can the U.S. dollar be that truly worthless?

From a contrarian standpoint, it seems that right about when I'm ready to throw in the towel (trying for a counter trend bounce), it comes. I'm about ready.

Here we are now, 0.9173 Cdn per 1 U.S. Wow.
 
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