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why this board isn't healthy if you trade for a living
- Thread starter akdrmeb
- Start date
Well, i for one find the system optimizers very amusing. They are absolutely hell bent on taking nature and spoiling it with the burden of false mechanisms. It's almost like the madness of Frankenstein, or crazy gardeners, who turn thier back on the beauty of nature and try to build thier own mechanical garden of Eden. Doomed by madness, vanity and ego they are.
The wrong attitude from the outset.
Dackster.
The wrong attitude from the outset.
Dackster.
Quote from Trader666:
You don't know who William Eckhardt is? That explains it then... you're posting here without even reading the prior posts. And you don't know what you don't know.
You wrote before that you "eventually came to the conclusion that back testing is not viable" apparently at least in part because you'd "read" about the optimization trap. Which is a beginner's trap. So you're coming to conclusions about things you don't understand.
My point was, if I knew almost nothing about a subject and then someone like Eckhardt endorsed it, that would give me pause.
Ok maybe it wasn't obvious in my post but I am not the truth bringer of facts. I wanted to say that I feel that I can better use my time learning other methods of trading as opposed to backtesting.
With all of the "great" traders/investors out there how do you determine who to imitate if that is in fact what you do? To me it seems that just as the market prices in news instantly, desperate people tend to "price in" or exaust and implement everything they can find out about which ever trader happens to be in the spotlight with great returns. Do you think the next great trader with amazing returns is going to attribute his success to imitating Eckhardt? After what I read about Eckhardt it seems as though he was very educated in mathmatics, physics and philosophy. I'm sure he was very smart and came up with his own trading plan without envying someone else. If he says backtesting is great I'm sure a vague statement like that will not help anyone become a better trader nor give the slightest clue as to what his trading plan consists of.
What I find amusing is when they misuse it like this and then conclude backtesting doesn't work.
Quote from Dackster:
Well, i for one find the system optimizers very amusing. They are absolutely hell bent on taking nature and spoiling it with the burden of false mechanisms. It's almost like the madness of Frankenstein, or crazy gardeners, who turn thier back on the beauty of nature and try to build thier own mechanical garden of Eden. Doomed by madness, vanity and ego they are.
The wrong attitude from the outset.
Dackster.
Simple...don't trade for a living. It's unhealth.
Quote from akdrmeb:
i read so many posts that say...
dont trade! i would never recommend it to anyone. it will stress you out. your life will end. etcetera etcetera.
well. i find this amusing especially in the "Career trading" section of all places. I think we should all shift our focus. What is the underlying reason to these statements?
The statements come from not understanding one's own psychology. There should be no stress in trading. Trading should be boring. Especially if you are a career trader. This is why I feel this board isn't healthy for the necessary successful professional trader mindset. In understanding my own psychology, I can feel myself tingling with stress just reading these posts which is unhealthy.
To everyone who feels stressed. Here is a tip for the next time you enter a trade. Before you take the trade, know your entry, exit and stop. And right before you send the order, say out loud, "I accept the risk associated with this entry and I don't care where it ends". Come to terms with, ie. 'Accept' the risk and there will be no stress. Then, turn your computer off so you can't change your order.
If anyone follows these instructions for a month straight and makes a bunch of money feel free to donate it to charity. Then do it again and take a vacation. Because that is what being a career trader means. Enjoyment + Personal Satisfaction.
Not being a regular reader of ET, I thought Jack Hershey was just another snake oil peddler, but it seems to run deeper than that. I see evidence of actual mental illness.
So Eckhardt is handicapped. No one else has to be, however.
The several alternatives include:
1. Forward testing....
You know words. Cool.
2. Designing and using a paradigm that eliminates probability.
A trading paradigm that incorporates certainty. Now that is WAY cool. I'm unsure of how this meshes with all the blabber about the future not being known, but I likes!
3. Using leading indicators of what is traded....
Once again with the certainty. The very concept of a leading indicator is pretty fantastic. No more of those lagging or concurrent indicators.
4. Automating systems based upon the scientific use of the null hypothesis.
Vintage nonsense. There is no scientific use of the null hypothesis, just as there is no "the" null hypothesis. In statistical studies, the researcher will assume non-correlation. This is called the null hypothesis. He will then set out to investigate whether he can reject a null hypothesis; i.e. he will try to prove correlation. Being a mere convention, it cannot be used as a basis for trading systems anymore than my cat, because it doesn't mean anything. Why not base a system on the continental convention of saying the day before the month rather than the American way of saying the month first?
5. Making use of all of the above in the trading application.
In this case, sadly, minus minus minus minus does not make plus
Back testing has a couple of draw backs:
1. It doesn't work
Mmmkay
2. It doesn't prove anything.
Yawn
3. It has nothing to do with real time in the Present, the only place trading takes place.
Hey, wait, what about the paradigms that eliminated probability and the leading indicators? Come on man! Daddy needs a new yacht.
4. IT is an inductive proof just like anyone quoting a past track record of someone for some "due diligence" type purpose.
I'm not even sure what this means
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:
Simple...don't trade for a living. It's unhealth.
It's as if people want to take the business of speculating and wield it as a trophy. To many people, trading has it's various facets and contexts, but very rarely do they choose right. Always room for them, there is always room for them.
Dackster.
Learning valid concepts from great traders and imitating or envying them are two different things but you seem stuck on the latter.
Eckhardt didn't say "backtesting is great" he said "I know of no way to validate conjectures concerning technical trading without back testing."
If it's not obvious to you how that statement can help traders, maybe you should think twice about trading with real money.
Eckhardt didn't say "backtesting is great" he said "I know of no way to validate conjectures concerning technical trading without back testing."
If it's not obvious to you how that statement can help traders, maybe you should think twice about trading with real money.
Quote from mynd66:
With all of the "great" traders/investors out there how do you determine who to imitate if that is in fact what you do? To me it seems that just as the market prices in news instantly, desperate people tend to "price in" or exaust and implement everything they can find out about which ever trader happens to be in the spotlight with great returns. Do you think the next great trader with amazing returns is going to attribute his success to imitating Eckhardt? After what I read about Eckhardt it seems as though he was very educated in mathmatics, physics and philosophy. I'm sure he was very smart and came up with his own trading plan without envying someone else. If he says backtesting is great I'm sure a vague statement like that will not help anyone become a better trader nor give the slightest clue as to what his trading plan consists of.
Ya know it's funny....I've been here for a long time. And never once read a Hershey thread.
But I do be ill'n
But I do be ill'n
Quote from Smurfie:
Not being a regular reader of ET, I thought Jack Hershey was just another snake oil peddler, but it seems to run deeper than that. I see evidence of actual mental illness.