Why the next recession will be worse than 2001

Quote from silk:



(1) no housing bubble to pull us out of recession

Housing bubble is area specific, it can simply reshuffle. Lots of areas very close to the hot spots which are dirt cheap and rock bottom pricing. A correction here means a look elsewhere, as long as money supply grows.

(2) less room for gvt to increase spending as this time we already have huge deficit verus a record surpluss in 2000.

Obviously Tom Paine has zero idea about how the system works and the whole overpublicized deficit/surplus debate. There was an operational "surplus", heavily manipulated by CLinton's accounting. Yeah, a little known fact is that the beloved Bill Clinton was a master at juking the stats. Cause putting the humonogous Medicare & S.S. obligations in tiny footnotes can create a "surplus".
The way this country's financial system works is one of perpetual growing government debt. It's probably not going anywhere. And there are many things the government can spend on and borrow more to do it.

(3) China will likely fall into recession with us next time.

The concept is GLOBALIZATION not Chinatization. The corporate pigs are already looking for the next new sweatshop land as China's pricing is going up. Same goes on in India. They are looking at Eastern Europe actually for Tech offshoring and the rest of Asia for the manufacturing offshoring.
 
u think cheap twinkees and milk would help too?

Quote from silk:

I'm thinking that lower commodity prices will be the way to get out of the next recession. Fiscal and monetary stimulus will be less effective then in last recession. Next time around things like cheap oil/gasoline might be the force that helps prop up a dead consumer.
 
Will agree with the first 2, but the 3rd is a coin toss. The third will be more determined by our incompetent congress and what dumbass law they pass next on free trade.


One thing you forgot to mention is the world is flush with cash so a major recession is hard to see unless the U.S. falls to a 3 world status.
 
Quote from dinoman:

Will agree with the first 2, but the 3rd is a coin toss. The third will be more determined by our incompetent congress and what dumbass law they pass next on free trade.


One thing you forgot to mention is the world is flush with cash so a major recession is hard to see unless the U.S. falls to a 3 world status.

I don't know the answer, but I'm going to try and find it.

But I would place a small, friendly wager - like a good drink if were shooting the shit in a pub right now- on an estimate that the good ole' USA consumes at least 35% of China's exports, and probably closer to 50%.

Check out this link for some incredibly stimulating facts and opinions on the 'interconnectiveness' of the USA/China trade relationship, and China's massive reliance on the US consumer so that it can just barely grow enough jobs to keep the peasants from rioting:

http://www.itulip.com/economicMAD.htm
 
Quote from dinoman:

"... a major recession is hard to see unless the U.S. falls to a 3 world status.

Unfortunately for all of us, it's inevitable.

However, we may not see another recession until the financial system built on fiat currency implodes..... that could be 20 years or more.
 
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