Why the market will go up

Innervoice

Innervoice

As long as the 2 and 10 year come down and the dollar weakens, the market goes up. Its that simple. Thats the correlation.
Unlike a few weeks ago when we gapped down and reversed strongly on a bad cpi , yesterday we gapped up on a good number. Thats why we have some staying power here. At least until we get another hot cpi.
 
I think so.. Inflation will eventually fall further but only by so much unless we get a bad recession and stocks will sell off on that . Either way we bounce more but then hit a wall.
 
I'm waiting to see when month-over-month inflation starts decreasing for consecutive months. That will tell you when this inflation mess is going away.

I was busy and didn't trade on this CPI news. At 200 points and 6 ES contracts, that could have been $60,000. But I would have sold it well before then.
 
Trading yesterdays gap up was difficult.
I bought MRVL near the open amd then put in a stop and let it ride until about 2:00.
Trading in and out on a day like yesterday is very tough.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
I'm waiting to see when month-over-month inflation starts decreasing for consecutive months. That will tell you when this inflation mess is going away.

I was busy and didn't trade on this CPI news. At 200 points and 6 ES contracts, that could have been $60,000. But I would have sold it well before then.
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You don't need another print to know inflation is dropping. Tthere are numerous reasons markets rallied the day before CPI looked like a textbook setup. Hong Kong market made a major bottom and rallied hard; that started before the CPI print. Major buying in volume in numerous areas I trade began mid-October. The one thing that I find amazing is that so many traders ignore earnings. Maybe more so in Canada, but there have been a ton of big beats here; analysts really underestimated what was going on.
 
Nine_Ender said:
You don't need another print to know inflation is dropping. Tthere are numerous reasons markets rallied the day before CPI looked like a textbook setup. Hong Kong market made a major bottom and rallied hard; that started before the CPI print. Major buying in volume in numerous areas I trade began mid-October. The one thing that I find amazing is that so many traders ignore earnings. Maybe more so in Canada, but there have been a ton of big beats here; analysts really underestimated what was going on.
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So you don't think unemployment will rise significantly in 2023?
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
So you don't think unemployment will rise significantly in 2023?
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Here in Canada we are at record low unemployment, 100K+ new full time jobs were added last month, and there are 1 million unfilled jobs. You know, facts, not the hysterics we get on the media and on trading sites. Sure, the central bank is by design killing some jobs, but we have a lot of slack right now.
 
In the last meeting, the fed already mentioned possibly slowing down the rate hike by the next meeting or the one after that. The upcoming FOMC meeting is on Dec 14. With unemployment rising from 3.5% to 3.7%, that will have some impact on spending and indirectly the inflation rate. Total non-farm payroll remains above 200k each month which is healthy.

I don't day trade, but was 100% all in the day before the CPI reading. It worked out nicely. Made more in that one day than my annual salary.
 
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