why the market will fall much further

[Locutus]

Quote from Ash1972:

I guess buying the dips and hanging on for the dividends long term might have worked. I'm curious to know how many funds or individuals did this. My guess is wild swings between "Yes, it's a recovery!" and "We're shafted!" would have prevented them from executing any rational strategy.

I genuinely believe that the effect of QE on either the market or the economy could well be precisely zero. Making money available when hardly anyone wants to borrow is practically the same as not making it available. Theoretically, if one big player (the Fed) could move markets we could always have healthy, non bubbly bull markets. Utopia for all. It's society's fear and greed that make the markets what we all love so much!!

Lots of funds don't even try to "buy the dips". They just buy what they like on fundamentals (through some kind of strategy which they advertise with) and they're certainly not going to be swinging between emotional extremes. It's not their money anyway and as long as they stick to the strategy they get the moolah. Very simple. And if the strategy fails, they'll just start another fund

 

[Ash1972]

Quote from Locutus:

Lots of funds don't even try to "buy the dips". They just buy what they like on fundamentals (through some kind of strategy which they advertise with) and they're certainly not going to be swinging between emotional extremes. It's not their money anyway and as long as they stick to the strategy they get the moolah. Very simple. And if the strategy fails, they'll just start another fund

Yeah, I find that really funny. If all you had done over the last 80 years is put money into the market after every down quarter, you would have outperformed every equity fund by miles.

Yet try advertising that strategy for your fund and see how many investors you get. Nope, you need to have brilliant, highly paid analysts who "understand" value and worldwide trends and have the Ivy League degrees to prove it!

 

[efficiency]

Price tells you just about everything you need to know. Not what you want to know. Need to know.

Institutions account for roughly 70% of trading volume. Where is their present mindset???

The threshold for the number of new 52 week lows as a reinforcement is 40 to 50. Today, twas 96. NYSE not NASDAQ. Naz was 153.

Short term is over-sold and the 4th of July generally gets a rally. Before or after. Hmmm, might coincide with the demise of QE-2.

Coincidental is a derivative of coincide. Translation, sucker rally.

Yes, you can make money in a sucker rally.

Me? I'm net short.