why THE HELL is it so easy to do the wrong thing...
- Thread starter Gordon Gekko
- Start date
aphie, how many trades have you actually made?
i'm all for learning from mistakes, but those are gross generalizations you speak in. i really wonder whether you've been at this for long enough to be able to do that.
in other words, what makes you so sure that it's what you were doing that was the cause of your losses, rather than just the nature of the markets at the time?
of course, when you cite such basic errors as holding losers etc (unless that's part of your strat) it stands to reason as a cause of failure.
all i'm saying is don't get too far ahead of yourself.
i really get the feeling you are finding that not being a winner from the day one really frustrating. what with all this talk of super computers, crazy (and ubstantiated) volatility theories etc etc be creative, sure. just don't forget there is one fundamental, and usually inescapable, element in ANY kind of succes - time.
i'm all for learning from mistakes, but those are gross generalizations you speak in. i really wonder whether you've been at this for long enough to be able to do that.
in other words, what makes you so sure that it's what you were doing that was the cause of your losses, rather than just the nature of the markets at the time?
of course, when you cite such basic errors as holding losers etc (unless that's part of your strat) it stands to reason as a cause of failure.
all i'm saying is don't get too far ahead of yourself.
i really get the feeling you are finding that not being a winner from the day one really frustrating. what with all this talk of super computers, crazy (and ubstantiated) volatility theories etc etc be creative, sure. just don't forget there is one fundamental, and usually inescapable, element in ANY kind of succes - time.
Good point.
I'm not really frustrated, though. However, I do want to run my own studies on ES. Basically, except for a very small percentage of people on ET, I am starting to get the feeling that ET is swarming with liars who claim profitability through ET.
Why do I make such a huge accusation? Well, first of all I'm not stupid. I've made over a hundred or so trades, and I've spent a lot of time outside the market observing it.
With all the EMH talk that was recently taking place, I realized that the markets closest to EMH would be index markets -- since they are an accumulation of so many other things. At least with individual stocks, you have a wide basket to go shopping with. With index movements that are amplified through leverage, you're talking about an extremely hard market to crack.
So I'll just keep doing what I'm doing until I stumble upon some fascinating unknown system or I see a great look corner of the market that I can arb.
If I do what everyone else does, how would I expect to be any better than the masses?
Gordon, you seem pretty emotional. It's not just this thread, I've noticed it before. Doing the opposite isn't about the system; it's about emotions and the thought process. You will still lose no matter where the targets or stops are placed unless you command them both.
How many posts do you have in the last year? Go back and read them. Reflect a little bit on what you are doing right and wrong. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like you have a journal with the trades. Start one. Write down trades and reasons behind your decisions. You have to be brutally honest with yourself. I remember a time when GG was an arrogant s.o.b. It may not be pretty.
How many posts do you have in the last year? Go back and read them. Reflect a little bit on what you are doing right and wrong. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like you have a journal with the trades. Start one. Write down trades and reasons behind your decisions. You have to be brutally honest with yourself. I remember a time when GG was an arrogant s.o.b. It may not be pretty.
Ok, you want to become profitable. Trading should be simple. Here's a system that is damned simple, but you still need discipline to stick to it. Profitable trading is all about controlling emotions and discpine, as I found out yestrerda the hard way again. .After 2 hours I was up 15 points on the Nq, but still was frustrated because i only catched small parts of the moves, so I started "thinking up" trades , instead of following my system. The balance: down 5 points for the day 
.
The chimp sytem:
Trend is determined by a 9/18 SMA MACD.
Stochastic settings 7/4/4 SMA.
Enter upon crossovers of stochastic of the signalline or the 50-line, wahtever comes first in the direction of the trend. However, only take crossovers that are in the opposite area of the 50-line, so if MACD is pos, enter on crossover in 0/50 ares and vice versa.
Exit on profit of 3 pts, stoploss 3 pts. This would have produced 10 trades for Friday. You count the winners/losers.
. The chimp sytem:
Trend is determined by a 9/18 SMA MACD.
Stochastic settings 7/4/4 SMA.
Enter upon crossovers of stochastic of the signalline or the 50-line, wahtever comes first in the direction of the trend. However, only take crossovers that are in the opposite area of the 50-line, so if MACD is pos, enter on crossover in 0/50 ares and vice versa.
Exit on profit of 3 pts, stoploss 3 pts. This would have produced 10 trades for Friday. You count the winners/losers.
Gordon,
What stocks do you trade?
How many shares do you trade a day?
What do you tend to look for in a trade?
Do you look for any specific chart set-ups?
Are you a support/resistance type of trader?
Do you have a clearly defined methodology?
How large is your stop loss?
Do you keep a core position with winners and scale out or do you cash out quickly?
What size positions do you normally take?
Do you try to anticipate trend reversals too much or do you go with the trend?
Please clarify and I will seek the root of your disgruntlement.
What stocks do you trade?
How many shares do you trade a day?
What do you tend to look for in a trade?
Do you look for any specific chart set-ups?
Are you a support/resistance type of trader?
Do you have a clearly defined methodology?
How large is your stop loss?
Do you keep a core position with winners and scale out or do you cash out quickly?
What size positions do you normally take?
Do you try to anticipate trend reversals too much or do you go with the trend?
Please clarify and I will seek the root of your disgruntlement.
My guess is gordon has not kept a trading journal (i don't mean one on ET) and does not remember why he got in and out of the trades he has taken.
No i'm not talking about the last week, he says he's been at this for a few years...he should have at least a year's worth of his trades written down and examined by himself in order to help figure out what the hell he's been doing wrong.
Nitro stated this plainly. None of us can help you if we don't know HOW you are trading. We won't know HOW you are trading until we see your trades and commentary on each (or as many as you have).
What is your reservation on posting this? We certainly aren't going to steal your "system". Are you afraid we will mock? Well maybe some will, your objective isn't to listen to those people. You must listen to the people who you respect.
No i'm not talking about the last week, he says he's been at this for a few years...he should have at least a year's worth of his trades written down and examined by himself in order to help figure out what the hell he's been doing wrong.
Nitro stated this plainly. None of us can help you if we don't know HOW you are trading. We won't know HOW you are trading until we see your trades and commentary on each (or as many as you have).
What is your reservation on posting this? We certainly aren't going to steal your "system". Are you afraid we will mock? Well maybe some will, your objective isn't to listen to those people. You must listen to the people who you respect.
Unless you learn to control your emotions your trading won't change! Take a deep breath..........
Now, instead of scalping, look for longer term setups. Here look at these stocks, AMZN, TECD, HD. Notice the setups on those stocks? Look only at the daily charts, 6 month, year whatever. Long setups right? PMCS is another. Pick one for your liking and enter on a pullback 25 shares 50 shares, whatever and ride it for a few days. Gradually move your stops up as price increases. Add shares if you want.
You need to trade less and concentrate on longer time frames. Your most profitable trades will be your longer holds. Only scalp if its a last resort and then only scalp if you have a 60% or higher win %.
You can find stocks that are good long candidates. The above that I listed are stocks I trade and have been very profitable the past 3 days thats why I listed them as examples.
Example of what can be done by managing longer time frames rather than scalp:
AMZN $5,552.50 $240.00 4.52% $22.21 $21.25 250 11/14/02
AMZN $44,420.00 $5,000.00 12.68% $22.21 $19.71 2,000 11/13/02
HD $2,463.84 $-8.70 -0.35% $28.32 $28.42 87 11/15/02
HD $49,560.00 $2,835.00 6.07% $28.32 $26.70 1,750 11/13/02
TECD $14,310.45 $161.70 1.14% $37.17 $36.75 385 11/14/02
TECD $37,170.00 $2,180.00 6.23% $37.17 $34.99 1,000 11/13/02
Cash $56,931.21
Total $210,408.00 $10,408.00 5.20%
A 5.20% return is not bad for 3 days. You can do better. Do it!
Now, instead of scalping, look for longer term setups. Here look at these stocks, AMZN, TECD, HD. Notice the setups on those stocks? Look only at the daily charts, 6 month, year whatever. Long setups right? PMCS is another. Pick one for your liking and enter on a pullback 25 shares 50 shares, whatever and ride it for a few days. Gradually move your stops up as price increases. Add shares if you want.
You need to trade less and concentrate on longer time frames. Your most profitable trades will be your longer holds. Only scalp if its a last resort and then only scalp if you have a 60% or higher win %.
You can find stocks that are good long candidates. The above that I listed are stocks I trade and have been very profitable the past 3 days thats why I listed them as examples.
Example of what can be done by managing longer time frames rather than scalp:
AMZN $5,552.50 $240.00 4.52% $22.21 $21.25 250 11/14/02
AMZN $44,420.00 $5,000.00 12.68% $22.21 $19.71 2,000 11/13/02
HD $2,463.84 $-8.70 -0.35% $28.32 $28.42 87 11/15/02
HD $49,560.00 $2,835.00 6.07% $28.32 $26.70 1,750 11/13/02
TECD $14,310.45 $161.70 1.14% $37.17 $36.75 385 11/14/02
TECD $37,170.00 $2,180.00 6.23% $37.17 $34.99 1,000 11/13/02
Cash $56,931.21
Total $210,408.00 $10,408.00 5.20%
A 5.20% return is not bad for 3 days. You can do better. Do it!