Why the delayed crash?

[Reverend Trader]

And don't forget that those "curbs" are for the benefit and manipulatin of the members' and "big boys." The world's most open and freest market...not!!!

 

[Kymar]

CBS Marketwatch article (referring to Bernie Schaeffer analysis quoted widely in recent weeks) on why huge down days, esp. on Dow, are still very possible:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18018091

Historical analysis, under theme that true crashes take place in massively overbought markets (unlike the current one):

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/crash.htm

 

[ksthomsen]

Guys,

I hate to ask a newbie question- what are "curbs"? I haven't heard the term before.

Kevin

 

[nitro]

Originally posted by marketsurfer
hi,

the crash will not happen since everyone is expecting it. in 1987 only the hard core technical analysis people saw it coming. the public was blissfully unaware. now, everyone is saying, if we can only get capitulation, the markets will rebound. in addition, the buy/hold mantra is so ingrained in the public that there probably will not be a "panic" sell situation. it appears that the slow grind down will continue untill it stops, then the equity market's will go FLAT for a LONG LONG time. the public will lose interest in the market, only then will the new bull begin.

best,

surf

I concur, almost 100%

nitro

 

[doher]

http://www.programtrading.com/curbs.htm

 

[ksthomsen]

Doher,

Thanks.

Kevin

 

[birddog]

doher,

Have you found those premium numbers to be helpful?

 

[doher]

I'm not sure which numbers u are referring to.

I don't subscribe to anything on:

http://www.programtrading.com/indicators.htm

I follow Premium, tick and trin which can be found on lycos .com (free) if you register.

A few links:

http://216.239.51.100/search?q=cach...html+trin+chart+interpretation&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

http://216.239.51.100/search?q=cach...tick.html+tick++interpretation&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

http://www.allstocks.com/html/fair_value_s_p_futures_or_prem.html

regards
doher

 

[rtstrading]

essentially happened in July with the mutual fund people bailing out to the record tune of $50+ billion. That was the momentum low for this bear cycle.

Now we have had the dead cat bounce with the momentum easing and a new price low in most if not all indices....the price low, following the mo low. Classic!

 

[CalTrader]

Originally posted by rtstrading
essentially happened in July with the mutual fund people bailing out to the record tune of $50+ billion. That was the momentum low for this bear cycle.

Now we have had the dead cat bounce with the momentum easing and a new price low in most if not all indices....the price low, following the mo low. Classic!

Very classic. I think that in more general terms there were factors driving the market until recently that have now abated. Primarily the large increases in productivity driven by cheaper and cheaper computing. The difference I see today is that while there is still a moores law factor in chip performance and storage costs, the recent fallout in the tech business has forced corporations to re-evaluate their IS expenditures. In the process they have discovered that they can get by with less computing power. That is they bought overcapacity for business that did not materialize and even bought beyond their previous needs prior to the tech boom of the last few years. So, we have a lot of overcapacity in telecomms, chip manufacturers, storage and going forward companies expenditures will be less than pre-boom based on adjusted numbers. Right now it appears that many companies are making their numbers by cutting costs - labor reductions are largley fueling productivity. ....