Why the big bounce today?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

My guess... the 10-yr traded @ 5% overnight. That would be one of those "big, round numbers" the markets like to fade... has traded back to 4.74% as of now. Today the markets playing for 5% to be the lid. Stay tuned.
 
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Except 10yr never traded above 5%. And not sure what bounce you speak of. Perhaps when you trade with your short time horizon and lines and circles and what not then everything appears to be a bounce, lol.
 
It's really simple, forget any logic, this market isn't capable of breaking lower. It always V's everytime all the time. That and they needed to destroy all the puts that went up yesterday. The only guarantee in this market is that there is a V waiting for it on every drop.

Who gives a &&*& about bonds. None of that matters in a market that will fomo every minor dip.
 
Total beginner speaking... Lmfao

v-shape-0DTE said:
It's really simple, forget any logic, this market isn't capable of breaking lower. It always V's everytime all the time. That and they needed to destroy all the puts that went up yesterday. The only guarantee in this market is that there is a V waiting for it on every drop.

Who gives a &&*& about bonds. None of that matters in a market that will fomo every minor dip.
More...
 
not to be facetious, but i remember one of the old adages being (to paraphrase), the market will trade in a way as to f*** over the most amt of ppl the most number of times

it's like a college class where 1-2% get As, 3-4% get Bs, 95% get Cs-Fs
- perhaps because the 1-2% include funds like Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies/ real sharp guys etc which are pulling billions in profits out from the hapless PMs hired on nepotism that can barely make an excel spreadsheet work

also maybe to analyze this in more detail,
(a) most people think in the similar ways, from the same type of education/ pop culture consumed/ habits etc, even human DNA is like 99.9% similar, so it's not hard to see why the population consists of mostly similar traders

(b) even now with algos, they are still programmed similarly by people with similar quant backgrounds, ppl who are using the same resources, not to mention job hopping/ not very many actual secret sauces out there. it's like, how much different can spaghetti bolognese be, it's the same thing only with slightly different marketing, the variations on the same theme don't make that much of a difference

(c) when most people acting in similar ways per above/ enough critical mass have either sold/ been stopped out/ liquidated, margin called, the flood of supply dries up, which puts a stop to the dumping. then the demand kicks in with waves, eg. those who are closing their shorts, the PPT, the vol sellers, the rest of the cavalry

long story short, it's price discovery, in that the market repeatedly prods ppl to "discover" how much pain they can take :sneaky:
 
I am not in the mix of the 0 DTE Index Options. I play the longer timeframes in ETFs and stocks.

But under GEX theory, traders would have cashed in their long puts on Tuesday to the dealers and then dealers would be net long puts so then they buy stocks/cover shorts to get back to Delta Neutral and that makes the market move up. If we buy long calls it makes the markets go up even more as the dealers would need to keep buying more shares to cover their short calls that they sold to everyone else. Then when the dealers buy enough shares to become delta positive they sell their shares making the markets go back down.
 
Sergio123 said:
I am not in the mix of the 0 DTE Index Options. I play the longer timeframes in ETFs and stocks.

But under GEX theory, traders would have cashed in their long puts on Tuesday to the dealers and then dealers would be net long puts so then they buy stocks/cover shorts to get back to Delta Neutral and that makes the market move up. If we buy long calls it makes the markets go up even more as the dealers would need to keep buying more shares to cover their short calls that they sold to everyone else. Then when the dealers buy enough shares to become delta positive they sell their shares making the markets go back down.
More...

Dumbest sht ever. Hindsight rationalization on dealer gamma positioning and perhaps the most absurd plot I've ever heard.

It's called market-making, Bro. Gain access to sell side dealer positioning in SN and you'll see you're FOS.
 
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