Why Technical Trading Signals Stopped Working

dozu888 · Nov 21, 2019

pipeguy said:
Well, how would you explain such market anomaly as momentum? Clearly, it does have a reason (greed or fear either through human or machine action) but to trade it we don't need a reason outside of the assumption that if there is acceleration of price movement it can continue moving in this direction for some time.

There is no doubt price movement is random for 90 or 95% of the time and technical analysis can't work here. We are simply looking for an edge where there is strong selling or buying imbalances which can be non-random.

right, movements do have reason and I was saying that the key to trading is understanding the reason. e.g. the GS or the Morgan house is buying shares while pushing a bearish article on Marketwatch.com

not blue line cross the red line, or the momentum indicator went from 79 to 81, whatever the garbage they teach..

murray t turtle · Nov 22, 2019

dozu888 said:
Well ain’t really only 2 indicators? With trend and counter trend.

%%
Something like that;
his indicators may work better, usually,LOL, if he does not post about them...…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

tommcginnis · Nov 22, 2019

dozu888 said:
movements do have reason

Stop for a minute, dozer, and think about that.
The *whole* thing.
You want to swagger about, spouting whatever you want to call what it is that you spout -- ignoring the first word of that phrase -- the subject of that phrase .... "movement." :wtf:

Dozer, what is a "movement"?
How might one recognize a "movement"??

Could it beeeeeeee :wtf:

trend lines??
Visual agglomerations branded as "support[!]" or "resistance[!]"
{You should hear some Thomas Dolby voice-overs about now.... "Science!" }
No matter what you call 'em, the *reasons* you wish to divine *each* stem from declaring a starting point and an ending point to your analysis.

You can't establish the impact of any fundamentals change until you declare the area/time horizon/graph of interest. That, my friend, is technical analysis.

You're welcome.

dozu888 · Nov 22, 2019

tommcginnis said:
Stop for a minute, dozer, and think about that.
The *whole* thing.
You want to swagger about, spouting whatever you want to call what it is that you spout -- ignoring the first word of that phrase -- the subject of that phrase .... "movement."

Dozer, what is a "movement"?
How might one recognize a "movement"??

Could it beeeeeeee trend lines??
Visual agglomerations branded as "support[!]" or "resistance[!]"
{You should hear some Thomas Dolby voice-overs about now.... "Science!" }
No matter what you call 'em, the *reasons* you wish to divine *each* stem from declaring a starting point and an ending point to your analysis.

You can't establish the impact of any fundamentals change until you declare the area/time horizon/graph of interest. That, my friend, is technical analysis.

You're welcome.

nah -

e.g. observations from lately -

3 weeks in a row now them hitting all the bids in the last 10 minutes of Friday... indicating my boys working big orders and have to fulfill some weekly quota....

by the way the above is also related to the fact that the dumb money aka retail sentiment has been overly bearish hence there are not many floating shares out there.

meanwhile - you have news stories like Bridgewater making bearish bets or Warren keeping a gazillion dollars in cash blah.... all this indicating my boys media machine in full swing trying to squeeze out every share they can...

these things, have nothing to do with areas/zones/trend lines/support resistance... you don't need these things to tell if the price is moving up or down, and how urgent.

comagnum · Nov 23, 2019

TA, as taught by the founders, is based on price & volume- not indicators!

No trading technique is going to be in sync with the market all the time. You have to be able to observant, adaptable, & a good problem solver.

Most traders make a killing in bull markets & lose their ass when the market turns into a full blown bear. If you can't make profits it in a long & strong bull market than your in the wrong profession, don't blame an indicator.

The losers blame anything but themselves - they need to take a critical look at what they are doing wrong.

pipeguy · Nov 25, 2019

comagnum said:
TA, as taught by the founders, is based on price & volume- not indicators!

No trading technique is going to be in sync with the market all the time. You have to be able to observant, adaptable, & a good problem solver.

Most traders make a killing in bull markets & lose their ass when the market turns into a full blown bear. If you can't make profits it in a long & strong bull market than your in the wrong profession, don't blame an indicator.

The losers blame anything but themselves - they need to take a critical look at what they are doing wrong.

Buy and hold is not a trading, it is investing. We have a lower volatility in bull markets and that is the key - markets becomes more "trendish". Consider it a luck enhanced by Central Bank support. Bear markets feature high volatility and it kills sustainable high probability trends movements.

tomorton · Nov 25, 2019

I had no idea that anything had changed with regards indicators. I didn't use them then and I don't use them now.

Zodiac4u · Nov 27, 2019

SunTrader said:

Not fond of blanket statements, however the mention of monthly was interesting, I've looked at the monthly and weekly from time to time. I'm not a long term player, but since we are close to the end of the Month, I popped up the SPY Cash and its set to close on its highs this month. That being said we may get some roll over momentum and push the next bar higher. Were not in the over bought area at all here, so it looks like we have more upside room to go as long as there's surprise news?

SunTrader · Nov 27, 2019

Zodiac4u said:
Not fond of blanket statements, however the mention of monthly was interesting, I've looked at the monthly and weekly from time to time. I'm not a long term player, but since we are close to the end of the Month, I popped up the SPY Cash and its set to close on its highs this month. That being said we may get some roll over momentum and push the next bar higher. Were not in the over bought area at all here, so it looks like we have more upside room to go as long as there's surprise news?

IMO (and many others much smarter than me) there is no such thing as overbought/oversold. Just sayin'.

Zodiac4u · Nov 27, 2019

SunTrader said:
IMO (and many others much smarter than me) there is no such thing as overbought/oversold. Just sayin'.

You are correct if you are just making a statement, it would seam that i did just that. But there are plenty of indicators that do show an overbought or oversold areas. If you believe in them they will work until they don't

. When you follow indicators as much as I have, you will find the one or two that work best for you. Some work better on high volume and specific times and others just plain suck. Sorry about the confusion.