"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?
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[light bulb turns on]
Suddenly, I realize why you don't understand TA. You are operating from a false set of premises.
First off, anyone who told you that TA can predict future price movements was lying to you. [It's actually a bit weird to see that you gave this as proposition #2, seeing as we've been telling you for the past week that TA is not about predicting the future, but anyhow...]
The value of TA does not lie in its predication on the past nor in its prediction of the future. The value of TA lies in its description of the present moment. If you have a problem with information theory being based on an assumption of directional time flow, you have bigger problems than your scepticism about TA.
Funny how we could go on for pages and pages, through all the threads where you've questioned TA, and finally figure out that it was all a big misunderstanding. What a waste of time.
ok, now we are getting somewhere, i think. what you erroneously call the present, i KNOW that is the past--- TA would not exist had the trade not occured to create the price therefore it is the past. this is not even getting into the inherent lag in feeds, internet, computer, et al .
the present begins, in my opinion, when the trade is executed-- everything prior is the past within the limited microcosm of the market.
im still not understanding those who state that one is not trying to predict the next, or next series of price moves by using TA...nothing else makes sense---
the issue is not directional time flow, but rather the calculation of price series repeating based on prior price/series.
surf
i call this trade management, not TA.
why couldnt the same thing be done with intuitive entries, say 3 one minute up moves, go long??
thanks,
surf
Let's take this in reverse order
Sorry, I can't help you here. TA has nothing, zero, absolutely nada to do with predicting future price movements. If you're having trouble understanding the concept of probability theory, perhaps others here have the time to help you out. However, if you can understand that insurers base life insurance premiums on the expectations they've developed, expectations which are based on actuarial tables that describe the rate at which different categories of people die, then I can't see how you don't understand probability as it relates to TA.
So now you're trying to break time up into units discrete enough to prove your theory that TA involves prediction?
Sorry, surf. This is wholly artificial.
TA shows you the state of the market at the present moment. Based on this, we decide whether to enter or not.
That's it. That's the end of the story. You can't make it true that TA involves prediction of the future, even if you stand on your head and shout it in Swahili. Insurers cannot predict which of the insured will die. TA practitioners cannot predict which of the trades will go either this way or that.
Sorry, I can't help you here. TA has nothing, zero, absolutely nada to do with predicting future price movements. If you're having trouble understanding the concept of probability theory, perhaps others here have the time to help you out. However, if you can understand that insurers base life insurance premiums on the expectations they've developed, expectations which are based on actuarial tables that describe the rate at which different categories of people die, then I can't see how you don't understand probability as it relates to TA.
So now you're trying to break time up into units discrete enough to prove your theory that TA involves prediction?
Sorry, surf. This is wholly artificial.
TA shows you the state of the market at the present moment. Based on this, we decide whether to enter or not.
That's it. That's the end of the story. You can't make it true that TA involves prediction of the future, even if you stand on your head and shout it in Swahili. Insurers cannot predict which of the insured will die. TA practitioners cannot predict which of the trades will go either this way or that.
<b>Let's take this in reverse order
Sorry, I can't help you here. TA has nothing, zero, absolutely nada to do with predicting future price movements. If you're having trouble understanding the concept of probability theory, perhaps others here have the time to help you out. However, if you can understand that insurers base life insurance premiums on the expectations that they have developed, expectations which are based on actuarial tables which describe the rate at which different categories of people die, then I can't see how you don't understand probability as it relates to TA. </b>
you can not compare actuarial tables to TA, come on man, you are stretching. probability theory? if this was applicable, one could easily calculate the odds of a future price move based on past price moves or whatever. unfortunately, this CAN"T be done. how many moves/series in one direction increase the odds that the next move/series will be in the same or opposite direction?? one can calculate that out of 1000 people, 10 will die in any given year or whatever--- one can not show that probability increases of price moving in the direction of your entry based on TA. I think you agree with me here, so what is the value of TA then opposed to guessing based on anything?
<b>So now you're trying to break time up into units discrete enough to prove your theory that TA involves prediction?
Sorry, surf. This is wholly artificial.
TA shows you the state of the market at the present moment. Based on this, we decide whether to enter or not. </b>
no, it shows the past. im sorry if you can't follow me here. nothing i can do.
<b>That's it. That's the end of the story. You can't make it true that TA involves prediction of the future, even if you stand on your head and shout it in Swahili. Insurers cannot predict which of the insured will die. TA practitioners cannot predict which of the trades will go either this way or that. </b>
if it can't predict, what good is it? random or intuitive entries should create the same effect--- if they don't and TA can't predict--im totally lost as to the value of TA.
Sorry, I can't help you here. TA has nothing, zero, absolutely nada to do with predicting future price movements. If you're having trouble understanding the concept of probability theory, perhaps others here have the time to help you out. However, if you can understand that insurers base life insurance premiums on the expectations that they have developed, expectations which are based on actuarial tables which describe the rate at which different categories of people die, then I can't see how you don't understand probability as it relates to TA. </b>
you can not compare actuarial tables to TA, come on man, you are stretching. probability theory? if this was applicable, one could easily calculate the odds of a future price move based on past price moves or whatever. unfortunately, this CAN"T be done. how many moves/series in one direction increase the odds that the next move/series will be in the same or opposite direction?? one can calculate that out of 1000 people, 10 will die in any given year or whatever--- one can not show that probability increases of price moving in the direction of your entry based on TA. I think you agree with me here, so what is the value of TA then opposed to guessing based on anything?
<b>So now you're trying to break time up into units discrete enough to prove your theory that TA involves prediction?
Sorry, surf. This is wholly artificial.
TA shows you the state of the market at the present moment. Based on this, we decide whether to enter or not. </b>
no, it shows the past. im sorry if you can't follow me here. nothing i can do.
<b>That's it. That's the end of the story. You can't make it true that TA involves prediction of the future, even if you stand on your head and shout it in Swahili. Insurers cannot predict which of the insured will die. TA practitioners cannot predict which of the trades will go either this way or that. </b>
if it can't predict, what good is it? random or intuitive entries should create the same effect--- if they don't and TA can't predict--im totally lost as to the value of TA.
??
Maybe I've been misunderstanding you. Isn't this what you're claiming can't be done? Isn't this the essence of the debate here??
If an actuarial table can't predict who is going to die and who isn't, what good is it?
My last post here, surf. I wish I could give you one of the indicators I coded myself, just for the sheer pleasure of watching your jaw drop to the floor as you saw the arrows pop up in real time. Unfortunately, I'm not feeling that philanthropic.
I'm sure there are good books that can help you understand probability theory as it applies to trading. Again, someone here should be able to point you in the right direction.
if you can do this, give me a call---- i would like to see the calculations-- and i'll buy lunch.
surf
Sorry, I did say last post, but I didn't see this. You're asking me personally to do what... the raw actuarial calculations for life insurance premiums? Sorry, I'm not a professional statistician.
Quote from traderNik:
If an actuarial table can't predict who is going to die and who isn't, what good is it?
My last post here, surf. I wish I could give you one of the indicators I coded myself, just for the sheer pleasure of watching your jaw drop to the floor as you saw the arrows pop up in real time. Unfortunately, I'm not feeling that philanthropic.
I'm sure there are good books that can help you understand probability theory as it applies to trading. Again, someone here should be able to point you in the right direction.
yes, if you feel philanthropic, i would like to see what you have.
i understand the law of large numbers as it applies to insurance--- i have several course hours in for the CLU from my lost youth
i still fail to understand the similarities between life insurance probability applications and probability theory as it relates to entering a trade based on TA.
regards,
surf