"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?

Tradernick et al.

Im sorry but that chart you put up is highly tradeable on just the technicals alone.

I will say thougha)its badly scaled, and missing the correct indicators for me to trade it but oh yes I could trade that chart and make money purely on the technicals.

There are many ways to trade and many individuals have made a lot of money on technicals... It is simply astomnishing to deny it works, usually this is a response from those who cannot make it work for them or from those who do not have the technical grasp of the indicators suitable for trading such an instrument.

On that chart I would use
daily, 240min, 60min, 10, 5 and 1 min charts simultaneously to guage moves.

I would add to them MACD, DMI (W)ADX, and maybe CCI and bolinger to help time my entries and exits on the 1 and 5 min chart. the daily and 240 min will give mean idea of the days likley sentiment. I would also use $TICK and $TIKI as indicators of money flow into and outof the market.

All of these things would allow me to guage likely price movement and I assure you.. many technical analysts could easily trade that chart..infact its one of the easiest Ive seen although let me re-iterate.. it is clear that the way you have presented this graph shows me you are are not into technicals. because it doesnt show what I need and the price action seems way to stretched on the vertical axis and way too narrow on the horizontal...
to allow me to diseminate the price action correctly.

I mainly trade technicals on an intraday swing basis..used to be a scalper but that didnt work for me because it choped my account and I dont as yet enjoy Spreads neither do I enjoy or believe in reading false level 2 info to trade and scalp.. but they do ALL work.. it just depends on your style. If you trade Forex intraday and dont believe in technicals in this electronic world... I think youll have a very hard time of it... for example.

In truth a style usually incorporates a mixture of Technical and fundamental analysis

PEOPLE DISMISS THAT WHICH THEY DO NOT FULLY COMPREHEND..ITS HUMAN NATURE.. BUT TO DISMISS THE METHODS USED BY MILLIONS OF TRADERS WHO ARE SUCCESFUL IS IN MY OPINION MORE REVEALING ABOUT YOU THAN IT IS ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IM AFRAID... DONT WORRY WEVE ALL BEEN THERE..NO ONE METHOD IS PERFECT .
:cool:
 
Quote from Paulds11:

Tradernick et al.

Im sorry but that chart you put up is highly tradeable on just the technicals alone.
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Sorry about the scaling, I don't do too much image hosting.

Maybe you misunderstood. I was being facetious when I said that this was untradeable. These were the obvious entry points based on S & R alone, and provided low risk entries from the short side, all of which were easily seen in real time as they formed up. My mother could have traded these signals today (in fact, she may have done so).

The only technical indicator you mentioned that I have found of any use are the Std Dev bands, but I doubt I use them in the same way you do.

Anyhow, I agree that anyone who argues that a trader can't use technical indicators to provide entries has probably failed at it themselves.

I'm glad you use the usual set of canned indicators. I personally haven't found much use for them, but I'd never suggest that you can't trade them.
 
Tradernick.. understood, I read the posts very quicklydidnt see the wry smile in your words... cool...

Its astonishing that people doubt it when even basic trend lines on many charts strangely line up perfectly to form obvious channels and breaks can be confirmed from it...
regards
Paul
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

the problem is, patterns only repeat in the past.

these mantras sound good, but there are no tests whatsoever that indicate that a certain pattern will result in a certain result in any quantifiable probability for exploitation.

furthermore, a pattern is only a pattern in the past, hence the non usefulness of these zen like mantras---repeated over and over again to keep the cash flowing into the machine....

if one could just have a scalable, consistent slight edge that lasts, jim simons would have competition.... edges exist but they are exceedingly rare and it aint nothing you can do with tradestation, etal.
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Are you saying that all my results are nothing but coincidences, that I am simply lucky?:confused: (I am a 100% pattern trader).

I have observed your trading & I know (I don't need any confirmation) I can find much better entries than what you come up with on average. I use patterns, you don't, where is the logic in your statement?
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

I have observed your trading & I know (I don't need any confirmation) I can find much better entries than what you come up with on average. I use patterns, you don't, where is the logic in your statement?
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surf's an interesting cat.... he has a website which details his inability to trade various systems (and it appears that he has spent a lot of money buying other people's systems to trade forex) and he actually posted a thread here a while back which detailed his failures to make a go of trading (correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure I recall that).

However, he wants to tell us what works and what doesn't work, and he wants to tell us that a dead simple method which has been proven over time is unworkable.

Like I said, quite an interesting case study, actually.
 
Quote from whitster:

TA is the study of price and volume. studying order flow, the tape, etc. IS TA. all a chart *is* is a way to model order flow visually over time. it doesn't matter if you use a candle chart, market profile, time/sales reports, etc. that's ALL TA.
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Isn't it weird that there are people who don't get this very simple idea?
 
There's a new generation of TA bashers or those that don't believe in TA that they have now started segregating or removing many different types of TA variables (most likely stuff they use or see value in)...

Just so they can fool themselves into thinking that the remaining TA variables allows them to say the following that TA Doesn't Work.

I've also notice that most (not all) of ET most hardcore TA bashers do not respond at all when they are asked the following...

What do you use if TA doesn't work?

At least a few have started admitting they don't even trade or its just some sort'uv a hobby (an occasional trade here and there).

Some have admitted they aren't profitable, breakeven or have publicly documented their own losing efforts.

Some will say they only use charts as a guideline only and that it has no impact of their trade decisions. :confused:

The few that have responded to the question...

What do you use if TA doesn't work?

They've reply in a way that profitable traders that use TA should be responding.

Discipline, proper capitalization, money management, position size management, competitive commision rates, reliable internet connections, reliable trade execution platform, reliable data vendor, efficient computer system, psychology and a lot of market experience et cetera.

All the above makes that edge (those variables) and they are dependent upon each other to endure in the business of trading and be a consistently profitable trader.

Simply, TA bashers and profitable traders that use TA...

Stop fooling yourselves.

TA bashers are wasting too much time and energy trying to isolate TA from profitable traders in an attempt to say their profits are lucky, won't last long, coincidence et cetera.

Just the same, profitable traders needs to start mentioning those other variables of the puzzle or chapters in the book more often so that newbies can start understanding that profitable trading is a lot of work and involves more than just entry signals.

Therefore, if you are a profitable trader that uses TA...

Stop giving the illusion its the only thing you are using to generate your profits.

If the above can happen consistently...

Just maybe, maybe, more traders will be profitable because they won't start this game with tunnel vision.

Too many traders spend too much time on their entry signals or tweaking of their entry signals during drawdown periods (consistent losses) instead of tweaking their understanding of the markets and understanding of how they interact with the markets.

Too many traders spend too much time bashing entry signals or demanding proof that the entry signal has a positive expectancy...

To imply that's how they actually approach their own trading the same way with tunnel vision or that they've failed in those other variables of the puzzle as explained above so that they can use TA as their scapegoat.

Profitable trading involves team work within your trading plan and there are many players on your team...each member is dependent upon the other so that the team can achieve consistent success.

TA is just one variable in my trading plan and it's very useful.

Last of all, if you truly don't use TA then there's no need for you to look at a chart for trade decisions nor for any general guidelines info.

Mark
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

. . . money management after entry, position sizing, and being able to "read" the big picture is what i try to do as retail trader. im wrong alot!

surf
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But you put yourself out there as an authority on what others do successfully that you do not or will not understand or comprehend. Why?
 
Quote from traderNik:

surf's an interesting cat.... he has a website which details his inability to trade various systems (and it appears that he has spent a lot of money buying other people's systems to trade forex) and he actually posted a thread here a while back which detailed his failures to make a go of trading (correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure I recall that).

However, he wants to tell us what works and what doesn't work, and he wants to tell us that a dead simple method which has been proven over time is unworkable.

Like I said, quite an interesting case study, actually.
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no website/no thread, as you describe....you must have me confused with someone else.

surf:confused:
 
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