"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Reading charts is like chess in many aspects, both an art form and a constant mathematical study of probability.
I agree with this sentence - they are more similar like one might expect. I am still newbie trader but like former chess master can say one thing:
Chess master often takes intuitive good decision that is not able to explain from scientific point of view.
In chess you do not need always take a BEST decision available. Usually is enough take a good one and if you take just good decisions and are avoiding mistakes you know that win is close...
"I did no such thing, strawman wise-as a self proclaimed technical charting guru, of course i would be baffled by someone saying tape reading or order flow etc is technical analysis, i would say it isnt, just where do you draw the line-working with no data at all, ever? "
you can be baffled all you want. i don't want to get into a semantical wank with somebody (you) who wants to redefine terms to their own agenda... but
TA is the study of price and volume. studying order flow, the tape, etc. IS TA. all a chart *is* is a way to model order flow visually over time. it doesn't matter if you use a candle chart, market profile, time/sales reports, etc. that's ALL TA.
contrast with fundamentals, which delve into completely different matters. they are not concerned with price qua price and supply/demand inbalance.
"Lagging indicators.....so? Your not supposed to be FOLLOWING the damn things, like a computer program, as a matter of course, they are supposed to TELL you something about current price behaviour, is it sustainable, is it just a spike, is it a seriously abnormal gap, is it true trending behaviour, is it-too volatile to consider it a reasonable risk, or should my approach and risk tolerance change completely, based on what my technicals are saying."
i didn't say lagging indicators are useless. i said *i* do not use them for intraday futures trading. futures are different in many respect vs. stocks (means reversion aspects, they act as supply/demand proxy for institutions. etc.) i prefer to use key reference areas, internals, intermarket relationships, etc. i am not arrogant and do not claim you CAN'T have an edge using lagging indicators with index futures intraday. i CAN say that i have met several profitable futures traders, and i have never met ONE who uses them. i know numerous LOSING retail traders who do use them (or have tried and lose money) for intraday futures trading. 90% of futures volume is less than 9% of the market participants. institutions move futures markets,and that is where i find MY edge. you can use whatever you want.
"If you happen to have a programmer in your back pocket, well thats great, but not everyone was born with a silver spoon or a leg in to the nefarious and clearly unreliable world of the street,"
i don't have a programmer, i don't use bb's. i use a relatively simple strategy, but it's robust and it has an edge. i COUNT on the fact that (most) losing traders are (relatively) predictable. knowing how THEY trade, helps provide an edge.
TA is as much a study in psychology as anything else. and if you understand how the losing trader thinks (and more importantly - ACTS), then that helps provide an edge.
" and btw, if you ever spent time backtesting technical strategies, your a dumbass looking for easy answers, you geek"
no. i am looking for statistical validity to my ideas.
one of the primary concepts in adult learning is "recency". this is CLEAR if you listen to the trading room chatter. traders JUST start adjusting to market character changes when it is too late.
that's because they rely (to a large extent) on recency, opinion, etc. and fail to look at the big picture, internals, institutional action, etc. that offer compelling risk/reward trades
you can be baffled all you want. i don't want to get into a semantical wank with somebody (you) who wants to redefine terms to their own agenda... but
TA is the study of price and volume. studying order flow, the tape, etc. IS TA. all a chart *is* is a way to model order flow visually over time. it doesn't matter if you use a candle chart, market profile, time/sales reports, etc. that's ALL TA.
contrast with fundamentals, which delve into completely different matters. they are not concerned with price qua price and supply/demand inbalance.
"Lagging indicators.....so? Your not supposed to be FOLLOWING the damn things, like a computer program, as a matter of course, they are supposed to TELL you something about current price behaviour, is it sustainable, is it just a spike, is it a seriously abnormal gap, is it true trending behaviour, is it-too volatile to consider it a reasonable risk, or should my approach and risk tolerance change completely, based on what my technicals are saying."
i didn't say lagging indicators are useless. i said *i* do not use them for intraday futures trading. futures are different in many respect vs. stocks (means reversion aspects, they act as supply/demand proxy for institutions. etc.) i prefer to use key reference areas, internals, intermarket relationships, etc. i am not arrogant and do not claim you CAN'T have an edge using lagging indicators with index futures intraday. i CAN say that i have met several profitable futures traders, and i have never met ONE who uses them. i know numerous LOSING retail traders who do use them (or have tried and lose money) for intraday futures trading. 90% of futures volume is less than 9% of the market participants. institutions move futures markets,and that is where i find MY edge. you can use whatever you want.
"If you happen to have a programmer in your back pocket, well thats great, but not everyone was born with a silver spoon or a leg in to the nefarious and clearly unreliable world of the street,"
i don't have a programmer, i don't use bb's. i use a relatively simple strategy, but it's robust and it has an edge. i COUNT on the fact that (most) losing traders are (relatively) predictable. knowing how THEY trade, helps provide an edge.
TA is as much a study in psychology as anything else. and if you understand how the losing trader thinks (and more importantly - ACTS), then that helps provide an edge.
" and btw, if you ever spent time backtesting technical strategies, your a dumbass looking for easy answers, you geek"
no. i am looking for statistical validity to my ideas.
one of the primary concepts in adult learning is "recency". this is CLEAR if you listen to the trading room chatter. traders JUST start adjusting to market character changes when it is too late.
that's because they rely (to a large extent) on recency, opinion, etc. and fail to look at the big picture, internals, institutional action, etc. that offer compelling risk/reward trades
Quote from JSSPMK:
âTrading is just a probability game based on pattern recognitionâ
I had to spend some time on editing this borrowed slogan
To each his own, btw right on Steve46!
the problem is, patterns only repeat in the past.
these mantras sound good, but there are no tests whatsoever that indicate that a certain pattern will result in a certain result in any quantifiable probability for exploitation.
furthermore, a pattern is only a pattern in the past, hence the non usefulness of these zen like mantras---repeated over and over again to keep the cash flowing into the machine....
if one could just have a scalable, consistent slight edge that lasts, jim simons would have competition.... edges exist but they are exceedingly rare and it aint nothing you can do with tradestation, etal.
'Surfer, are you being paid by The Man to ass-sert that TA doesn't work? Indubitably it does. The Man makes his bread from volume, and there cannot be volume unless Paper believes in TA. For Paper to believe in TA, it MUST work. Sometimes. At least often enough to suck Paper in. The REAL TA is to know when TA DOESN'T work.
sticking it to the man....
keep the paper flowing!
surf
Right on... you hit it bro, thats all trading is. And if you can control your risk... i.e, predefining risk and having the discipline to execute your plan... your golden. That's all it takes to be successful and trade for a living.
I see way too many people put trading up on a pedestal and struggle as if it's some mysterious, impossible way to earn a really good living.
Trading is all in the head... the market just offers the opportunities to take advantage of your decisions.
I see way too many people put trading up on a pedestal and struggle as if it's some mysterious, impossible way to earn a really good living.
Trading is all in the head... the market just offers the opportunities to take advantage of your decisions.
Quote from JSSPMK:
âTrading is just a probability game based on pattern recognitionâ
I had to spend some time on editing this borrowed slogan
To each his own, btw right on Steve46!
Not sure what you consider "quantifiable"
but Thomas Bulkowski has written several books on chart patterns including the most extensive statistical work on the subject I've seen.
FWIW I no longer use these sorts of patterns myself, simply meaning I'm not trying to convince or convert anyone.
yes, this is what trading is.
not pattern recoqnition to increase probabilities. computers can recoqnize patterns far faster and better than humans, yet it doesn't work...
surf
what do you use ?