"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?
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i doubt you will get a response.
there is serious misunderstanding on this thread.
regards,
surf
look. TA is the study of price, volume, and derivatives of same. it can (but does not necessarily) involve charts, etc. yes, u can use TA without charts (think tape reading for instance).
fundamentals is the analysis of underlying elements - market share,product superiority, management, earnings, etc.
SOME TA is science based, and/or non-discretionary, and/or completely quantifiable.
some isn't
the exact same thing could be said about fundies.
example:
i trade intraday futures using TA (note: no lagging indicators, no squiggly lines). it is to some extent quantifiable/math based (i extensively test my setups, and am anal about keeping records/data etc.)
but a part of my trading is discretionary - certain intermarket relationships for instance.
i INVEST almost 100% with fundies. heck, sometimes i don't even LOOK at a chart. how's that froma guy who trades intraday futures for income?
example: some of my best investments have been products that i research the fundies extensively - but not math based stuff as much as marketplace (not STOCK marketplace, product marketplace). the old peter lynch thang - going to the malls, talking to my friends who work as surf promoters, etc.
that got me in HANS before a 500% return. obviously, not a typical example, but a way to "beat the street". no charts, etc. just analysis of what was happening at the local 7-11, the local fire station, the local surfer population, etc.
it got me in both CROX, UA and GOOG at the IPO's. for similar reasons. that is neither scientific nor quantifiable, but it is something you can research and apply specialized knowledge. i happen to know a LOT about firearms and force stuff (i've taught firearms to cops and civilians). that got me starting to nibble TASR in the 6's and 7's because i knew the price was beaten down mostly due to lawsuits etc. that were completely bogus. that's not insider info, but it's specialized knowledge, that anybody who invests in fundies should use. pump the nurses, doctors, local real estate d00ds, etc. for what's happening in their markets. the 7-11 manager, etc.
most people who use TA are NOT going to beat the market. most who use fundies won't either. the difference witht he former set is they TEND to be more frequent TRADERS, and ceteris paribus, the more a person trades, the less successful they are. ask ANY broker. 95% of people are WAY better dollar cost averaging once a month into a few funds, having a decent cash reserve, and using maybe 10% of capital to invest/trade more speculatively, than pressing the button because the latest macd/rsi/stoch/niftykeenneato indicator says BUY
that's absurd imo, but that's how way too many TA "traders" think
fundamentals is the analysis of underlying elements - market share,product superiority, management, earnings, etc.
SOME TA is science based, and/or non-discretionary, and/or completely quantifiable.
some isn't
the exact same thing could be said about fundies.
example:
i trade intraday futures using TA (note: no lagging indicators, no squiggly lines). it is to some extent quantifiable/math based (i extensively test my setups, and am anal about keeping records/data etc.)
but a part of my trading is discretionary - certain intermarket relationships for instance.
i INVEST almost 100% with fundies. heck, sometimes i don't even LOOK at a chart. how's that froma guy who trades intraday futures for income?
example: some of my best investments have been products that i research the fundies extensively - but not math based stuff as much as marketplace (not STOCK marketplace, product marketplace). the old peter lynch thang - going to the malls, talking to my friends who work as surf promoters, etc.
that got me in HANS before a 500% return. obviously, not a typical example, but a way to "beat the street". no charts, etc. just analysis of what was happening at the local 7-11, the local fire station, the local surfer population, etc.
it got me in both CROX, UA and GOOG at the IPO's. for similar reasons. that is neither scientific nor quantifiable, but it is something you can research and apply specialized knowledge. i happen to know a LOT about firearms and force stuff (i've taught firearms to cops and civilians). that got me starting to nibble TASR in the 6's and 7's because i knew the price was beaten down mostly due to lawsuits etc. that were completely bogus. that's not insider info, but it's specialized knowledge, that anybody who invests in fundies should use. pump the nurses, doctors, local real estate d00ds, etc. for what's happening in their markets. the 7-11 manager, etc.
most people who use TA are NOT going to beat the market. most who use fundies won't either. the difference witht he former set is they TEND to be more frequent TRADERS, and ceteris paribus, the more a person trades, the less successful they are. ask ANY broker. 95% of people are WAY better dollar cost averaging once a month into a few funds, having a decent cash reserve, and using maybe 10% of capital to invest/trade more speculatively, than pressing the button because the latest macd/rsi/stoch/niftykeenneato indicator says BUY
that's absurd imo, but that's how way too many TA "traders" think
I agree via the following modification of your statement...
Most people who use TA alone are going to have a difficult time in beating the market.
Simply, those that are consistently profitable via TA, see TA as just one tool among their other tools.
Further, usually when someone talks about TA as if it was the only thing that's needed to be consistently profitable or wants to test to see if TA has merits...
That's a trader or non-trader that's saying the only thing that matters is the entry signal...someone that really doesn't understand what's involved for a trader to be profitable.
There are many chapters in the book called Profitable Trading. Entry Signals or TA are just one chapter.
Mark
"Simply, those that are consistently profitable via TA, see TA as just one tool among their other tools. "
this is true, and has been my experience in what i have seen from successful traders AND investors.
if yer scalping on a very short timeframe, it might be 90%+ TA, but for most SUCCESSFUL traders TA is a frame of reference but not the sole reason to enter any trade (let alone investment)
"Further, usually when someone talks about TA as if it was the only thing that's needed to be consistently profitable or wants to test to see if TA has merits...
That's a trader or non-trader that's saying the only thing that matters is the entry signal...someone that really doesn't understand what's involved for a trader to be profitable. "
absolutely correct imo
this is true, and has been my experience in what i have seen from successful traders AND investors.
if yer scalping on a very short timeframe, it might be 90%+ TA, but for most SUCCESSFUL traders TA is a frame of reference but not the sole reason to enter any trade (let alone investment)
"Further, usually when someone talks about TA as if it was the only thing that's needed to be consistently profitable or wants to test to see if TA has merits...
That's a trader or non-trader that's saying the only thing that matters is the entry signal...someone that really doesn't understand what's involved for a trader to be profitable. "
absolutely correct imo
TA is not nonsense!! Where is the Outrage??
Im outraged.
A bit.
Ok, not really at all.
Ok, how is it, we never hear from these"pure price" readers, who are so freaking wonderfull and amazing......why is that?
Bucketfulls of people saying TA is garbage, let's assume tape reading, or price bar patterns OR behaviour are not TA, equally wonderfull, so where are they?
Hey surf, good to see you got rid of that tawdry piece of rubbish catologue
A bit.
Ok, not really at all.
Ok, how is it, we never hear from these"pure price" readers, who are so freaking wonderfull and amazing......why is that?
Bucketfulls of people saying TA is garbage, let's assume tape reading, or price bar patterns OR behaviour are not TA, equally wonderfull, so where are they?
Hey surf, good to see you got rid of that tawdry piece of rubbish catologue