Why TA does not work
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Quote from cornixforex:
Point out one single mistake I committed when publicly exposed how your "hedging" stuff is completely delusional in the "junk science" thread.
Openly say here that L EURUSD + SGBPUSD + SEURGBP =/= FLAT.
Let's see how well YOU understand your own stuff.
Sorros said " to make money , you need to know what the market does not know and take a risk , otherwise everybody knows what is on t/a charts"
If you knew about hedging and probabilities , with exits in and out of hedges as and when appropriate , using stops on risk exposure , you would be wiser.
Right now you might as well stick to gambling on the euro /usd horse , or betting on the form of the euro/ usd horse , based on performance of the euro /usd horse in the last several races.
Let's wait for Soros in this thread before discussing what he said, right now it's just us speaking here.
I don't understand "hedging"? Fine. Point out one single mistake I committed when exposed your "hedging" as self-delusion.
Write here in this thread that L EURUSD + S GBPUSD + S EURGBP =/= FLAT POSITION and legging in/out in any combination using these three pairs does not equal OUTRIGHT position in one of these pairs.
What are you afraid of if you are right?
P. S. Everybody has no idea what's really on the charts. You also posted "T/A" charts which wouldn't be worth the paper if printed out. What you think is "T/A" is not even amateur level really. But that doesn't mean real T/A doesn't exist.
The palindrome dark lord is brilliant. I would suggest listening. Not to mention a much older and much richer version of someone whose very close-- (that's not his daughter)
Quote from cornixforex:
Let's wait for Soros in this thread before discussing what he said, right now it's just us speaking here.
I don't understand "hedging"? Fine. Point out one single mistake I committed when exposed your "hedging" as self-delusion.
Write here in this thread that L EURUSD + S GBPUSD + S EURGBP =/= FLAT POSITION and legging in/out in any combination using these three pairs does not equal OUTRIGHT position in one of these pairs.
What are you afraid of if you are right?
P. S. Everybody has no idea what's really on the charts. You also posted "T/A" charts which wouldn't be worth the paper if printed out. What you think is "T/A" is not even amateur level really. But that doesn't mean real T/A doesn't exist.
With hedged trading you dont need t/a.The hedging gives you the volatility of 3 pairs to trade , with the risk of one pair e/gbp which has an average 700 pips yearly range , and 80 % of the time it ranges when hedged trading makes money.Other ways to reduce risk is by buying options on naked directional trades from a hedge.
There is no fear , just more profitable , and easier to average down a 700 pip range on e/gbp.All done very intelligently.There is probably around 500 pips a week here using hedged trading ,you will learn.
This is just blah-blah and not the answer to my questions.
You may fool someone into this pseudo-advanced talk about "hedging", but clearly not me.
That's why guess you will never answer the question directly: what is the exposure of L EURUSD + SGBPUSD + SEURGBP. I know the answer, I am sure Surf knows the answer, do you know the answer, Olio?
P. S. The only logical reason I see in such "hedging" is to gain extra commissions if you act in the interests of a broker who without any doubts benefits from such a bright idea as simply opening and closing EURUSD trades, but paying an additional GBPUSD + EURGBP spread for that every time.
Quote from cornixforex:
This is just blah-blah and not the answer to my questions.
You may fool someone into this pseudo-advanced talk about "hedging", but clearly not me.
That's why guess you will never answer the question directly: what is the exposure of L EURUSD + SGBPUSD + SEURGBP. I know the answer, I am sure Surf knows the answer, do you know the answer, Olio?
P. S. The only logical reason I see in such "hedging" is to gain extra commissions if you act in the interests of a broker who without any doubts benefits from such a bright idea as simply opening and closing EURUSD trades, but paying an additional GBPUSD + EURGBP spread for that every time.
I am glad for you , cause you are talking to the next George Sorros , but you won't know why.You are a clueless two bit gambler and I have the no loss holy grail in my hand.You will remain clueless.
Just found a risk free 200 pips a week strategy , just set and forget , but you won't know why or how.
Enjoy your stay on E T.
TA is junk to me. I am not a TA trader.
I do not know how many of you know how human brain works.
human brain likes to generalize/theoretize (try to rearrage it, seek regularity....), the good part is it stores more information, the bad part is it loss chunk of information, maybe critical to the reality/real world.
most TA are indicators, but I never see an indicator with its true probaility attached. how many people knows the probabilty of a double top or a double bottom (reversal happens). their logic is if A happens, then B happens. the real problem here is: if A happens, then what is the chance of B happen. TA puts you into gambler situation. why? you are driven to know the odd of an event. you overtrade to hope the more you do, the more statisticaly edge will show. this is a wrong mindset.
first you need admit: the market has zillions of combinations of ups/downs and patterns.
second forget about theory/indicators and prediction, focus on if something happens, what I should do.since market is out of control, we can not predict what will happen, but we can take advantge of what is going on if we prepare it mentaly or reharse it beforehand.
human brains likes to overestimate something they likes, and underestimate things they do not like. the most deadly sin is they generalize/exergrate. if biten by a dog, you will immeadiately conclude dogs are dangerous (you will easily raise the probaility of dog biting, you will think every dog is a danger, in reality, some dogs are brutal, some are very kind and nice, most are between).
suppose we do not TA, do we lose? not really.
suppose we have TA, do we win? not really.
from those two answers, we know TA is for those people who have lots of time or those acamdemic guys. the market runs as it should run whether you have TA or not.
Practically TA is just a tool. if you pull out a chart, you do not need a EMA, you can notice whether it is trending down or trending up, or random walk. I see some guys stacked indicators with indicators on their chart, the results are not better than some guys even bother to check the chart.
TA is a good tool to describe market behaviors. when two traders talk, if TA is used, they can comminucate easily. that is it.
to me, I care more about what is next minute/next hour/next day, if next hour happens A, I do the thing I should do.
bear in mind, find a top or a bottom, or a desirable pattern in the past chart is easy, you do not need TA, chart is good enough.
I know a guy who is in market wizard, in 1989 old Bush lauched a war against iraq, before the news broke worldwide, the guy bought all gold futures from Hongkong (8 minutes late the news hit there).
for those TA guys, they may buy after the indicators say "buy, buy, buy". just after you get in, that guy unloads all to you.
TA helps you understand the market better, make the market simpler. but it does not help you trade. in order to trade well, you need trade intelligentlly, know when to apply, when not to apply, when to apply others, when to apply nothing at all.
I do not know how many of you know how human brain works.
human brain likes to generalize/theoretize (try to rearrage it, seek regularity....), the good part is it stores more information, the bad part is it loss chunk of information, maybe critical to the reality/real world.
most TA are indicators, but I never see an indicator with its true probaility attached. how many people knows the probabilty of a double top or a double bottom (reversal happens). their logic is if A happens, then B happens. the real problem here is: if A happens, then what is the chance of B happen. TA puts you into gambler situation. why? you are driven to know the odd of an event. you overtrade to hope the more you do, the more statisticaly edge will show. this is a wrong mindset.
first you need admit: the market has zillions of combinations of ups/downs and patterns.
second forget about theory/indicators and prediction, focus on if something happens, what I should do.since market is out of control, we can not predict what will happen, but we can take advantge of what is going on if we prepare it mentaly or reharse it beforehand.
human brains likes to overestimate something they likes, and underestimate things they do not like. the most deadly sin is they generalize/exergrate. if biten by a dog, you will immeadiately conclude dogs are dangerous (you will easily raise the probaility of dog biting, you will think every dog is a danger, in reality, some dogs are brutal, some are very kind and nice, most are between).
suppose we do not TA, do we lose? not really.
suppose we have TA, do we win? not really.
from those two answers, we know TA is for those people who have lots of time or those acamdemic guys. the market runs as it should run whether you have TA or not.
Practically TA is just a tool. if you pull out a chart, you do not need a EMA, you can notice whether it is trending down or trending up, or random walk. I see some guys stacked indicators with indicators on their chart, the results are not better than some guys even bother to check the chart.
TA is a good tool to describe market behaviors. when two traders talk, if TA is used, they can comminucate easily. that is it.
to me, I care more about what is next minute/next hour/next day, if next hour happens A, I do the thing I should do.
bear in mind, find a top or a bottom, or a desirable pattern in the past chart is easy, you do not need TA, chart is good enough.
I know a guy who is in market wizard, in 1989 old Bush lauched a war against iraq, before the news broke worldwide, the guy bought all gold futures from Hongkong (8 minutes late the news hit there).
for those TA guys, they may buy after the indicators say "buy, buy, buy". just after you get in, that guy unloads all to you.
TA helps you understand the market better, make the market simpler. but it does not help you trade. in order to trade well, you need trade intelligentlly, know when to apply, when not to apply, when to apply others, when to apply nothing at all.