Why superpowers in the ancient time cannot last forever?
- Thread starter OddTrader
- Start date
None of the countries listed (Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, Iran, Japan, Korea) are pivoting toward China. In fact every one of them is very concerned about China and are pivoting toward the U.S. to act as a counterweight to China on their behalf (except Iran and maybe Pakistan which are the odd ducks because of the land border). The "nine-dash line" is contested by U.S. forces flying and sailing through it all the time, and it's what has the Philippines and Vietnam especially pivoting away from China.
China exports $2.2T a year (https://www.statista.com/topics/1456/export-in-china/). I don't care who you are, that's significant!
IMHO the military side is a red herring imho because this isn't a military story, wars or potential wars just make for more spectacular headlines and get more than their fare share of attention. However, if it was a military story then the PLA and PLA Navy are incredibly far behind the U.S. when it comes to force projection over anything other than a land border. It's not telling the whole story to say $1 in the hands of the Chinese military goes about as far as $3-4 in the hands of the US. If you buy 4 tanks with a range of 2,000 meters and the U.S. can only buy one with a range of 2,500 meters, you end up with 0 tanks and the U.S. ends up with 1 at the end of the day. Far more important than that is the training and professionalism of U.S. service members vice PLA service members, both in general and in highly specific areas like amphibious assaults and carrier air ops, both of which the U.S. has been practicing and refining continuously since WWII, neither of which the PLA has ever even practiced, and both of which are crucial to maritime force projection. As a retired military guy I could get sucked into going on forever on this vein, but again I believe it is really all irrelevant given the economic options.
I do agree with you on the internal policy differences between the two countries, that's really the wild card. Does nationalism and a pathological desire for stability on the part of China overrule the rationale of economic self interest? I don't think any of us know.
And I'm sure Japan and Philippines came into US sphere of influence because of America's benevolent intent...Fear of China will drive each of these nations to closer relations with China.
And how well is the US's contesting of the Nine Dash Line going? Because while China is exercising de facto sovereignty over each island chain, the US allies are loud in international forums, but absent in the location of their claims.
You can describe this however you want. The reality is the US doesn't have the domestic will to lose as many people as China does. They probably lack outright military power to win any war short of all out nuclear war--and the term "win" in that case is somewhat subjective. In any limited war within context of China's contested claims, there are no reasonable scenarios where the Chinese cede their claims. You may well be right about the history of the PLA and the technology gap that exists (more rightly, existed, it's shrinking fast). But we'd do well to remember how well this gap was exploited in Korea and Vietnam. In each case, a woefully inferior enemy propped up by the PLA was able to stalemate one war, and win the other.
The question of a tank's range is woefully academic when it's lying on the sea floor. The reality here is that Chinese anti-shipping missiles, even with a fractional success rate, make a meaningful landing of US and allied troops prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, China will determine which battles are fought and where. They enjoy air superiority within their territorial claims, and navel superiority opportunistically. And China is the sole beneficiary of time's passage with respects to the status quo.
At the moment, I'd say it's premature to suggest that China is still pursuing domestic stability pervasively. Indeed, it's middle class has risen, once active centers of dissent have fallen (when was the last time you read about the Uighurs or Tibet?), and it's people have realized the clear and concise vision consistently articulated by a stable CCP since 2002.
China's rise is very real, and nostalgic views of American superiority are likely to be punished if acted upon at a national level.
It is my thought that the conventional warfare concept has been outdated. Considering so many satellites and GPS equipment systems in the space that could be anytime used as weapons, even installed with nuclear warheads secretly without any international acknowledgement.
Nowadays almost every industrial countries is able to send satellites to inner space for communication purpose.
If NKorea can do so much progress within relatively short period of time for developing their nuclear weapons, so that many other countries could be able to do even better and quicker, possibly. And naturally!
Trump was once wanting to scale down the military set-up and expenses and he should be right and correct. Considering he gained certain theory and knowledge as a graduate from military school. (Actually imo his international policies and relations ideas before election were not all wrong. Making peace with Russia was another one of them.) Better spend the money in domestic issues and economic development.
If the NKorea say they can mass produce their nuclear weapons, how many defense equipment the US can set up within shortest time, considering the costs involved and complexity?
imo, the ultimate question for the world to ask could be, What the NKorea really want? Peace? Money? Defense? Hatred? ...
Why the world nowadays would still use the same old rules book for avoiding warfare, without any updating according to dynamic situations? A new world that allows flying drones for delivering parcel boxes without really knowing for sure what stuff (whether dangerous or not) would have been actually placed inside the big box - flying everywhere around crowds! LOL
Graduate from military school! Seriously, you consider someone who went to a military boarding school in high school (then dodged the draft) to know jack shit about anything in the military, let alone how military power influences international affairs? Wow, just wow (says this retired military officer you just insulted along with everyone else who has actually served).
Viewed within the context that the US does not recognize them as a sovereign nation, formally supports the reunification of Korea under the South Korean government, and the US has sought regime change in nations using WMD as a pretextual casus belli?
I don't think it's unreasonable to take them at their word that really all they want is guarantees of continued existence.
Bannon, for all his objectionable qualities, astutely observed that the military option is a non-starter until someone solves the equation of how 10 million people in Seoul don't die within 30 minutes of the commencement of hostilities from conventional weapons.
Incidentally, this plays out in war games (and in fact the very war games going on right now), where in the context of a ship collision in disputed waters combined with ordinary saber rattling of shelling South Korean army positions (an annual occurrence), provides sufficient pretext for China to enter a "defensive" war on behalf of the DPRK. And just like that, we're at war with China, and 10s of millions of Koreans are dead before the US ambassador is even on his flight out of Beijing...
I just meant that he, relative to other candidates, was not a guy without any knowledge at all regarding reading/studying any military books.
That Trump knew and spoken out to his crowds the problems did/does not mean he had had the ability required to solve the problems.
However, other candidates didn't/dare not even really want to touch/talk about the real problems by saying bravely, I can solve the problems! Like employment jobs, reducing national debts, Stopping wars, reduce expenses, ISIS, etc.
Therefore, he got the job!
Trump 2020!
Looks like to me Bannon got the electable policy ideas that made Trump elected after wisely adopting Bannon's ideas.
By now Trump has become a mix. imo,he cannot prove he has got required talents or capability to implement the ideas. A big appointment to everyone, except himself perhaps.
I think that's why his rating has been so low! While his supporters still like him.
