Why RIMM and AAPL are long term shorts

The fundamentals that are..... people are buying apple and rimm products. Look at Apple sales and Rimm's subscriber gains. Do you have a high degree of certainty that people won't like apple products or blackberrys in two years?

Even if you somehow end up being right, it doesn't make any sense. The upside is maybe Rimm growth slows and it drops to 70 and you make a small gain... the downside is Rimm could double which wouldn't surprise me. There's no equation where that gamble makes any sense. It's like trying to jump over 10 foot hurdles when you can make easier money jumping over 2 foot hurdles.

If you want to lose your money by randomly speculating... I suggest you go to a casino... find the roulette table. By the way, black is just so much better than red. You'll lose your money just like shorting hottest nasdaq stocks, but at least at the casino maybe some women will notice you losing money and think you've got deep pockets...
 
Quote from detective:

Both RIMM and AAPL are long term shorts. Starting with a small short position at these prices and scaling in will make you money in the long run. I'm talking 1-3 years. Not holding for a week or 2. I'm talking long term short positions, not daytrading or swingtrading short these members of the Four Horsemen.

RIMM's market cap is over 60 Billion, AAPL's market cap is over 140 Billion, do people really except these companies to continue their earnings growth rates?

It was like CSCO in 2000 when its market cap went past MSFT's, really, was the router market ever bigger and more profitable than the market for computer O/S and software? Maybe the router market had a higher growth rate then but the overall market size was and is much smaller than the computer O/S and software market.

Look at the big picture people. RIMM sells that Blackberry gadget which is easily substitutable with any decent cell phone. And AAPL with its ipod, iphone, iXXXX, they are all fads and gadgets that are commodity products. The ipod is an mp3 player. The iphone is a cellphone. No one uses overpriced Macs. What makes it so special??? Might as well buy DELL instead at a much cheaper valuation if you want to purchase a company that sells commodity products.
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in 1986 microsoft was at the equivalent of 1. in 2000 was at 58. there is nothing predictive at this point about your time horizon.
 
Quote from zdreg:

in 1986 microsoft was at the equivalent of 1. in 2000 was at 58. there is nothing predictive at this point about your time horizon.
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What was Microsoft's market cap in 1986? 60 Billion? 140 Billion?
You think a 60 billion market cap company can sport a 3.5 trillion market cap in our lifetime? Maybe if Bernanke keeps things up, but it will be in Weimar regime conditions.
 
Detective, RIMM and AAPL might be shorts on a fundamental basis but if past history is a guide there will be a decent window of opportunity to enter a short where technicals will also confirm the down move. Better to go in during those times and take small lumps if it doesn't pan out quickly than see these stocks double while holding short in the mean time.
 
I think, there is a philosophical case that can be made....for this position similar to the person who started this thread.

However, even if I agree, I can not take a position to reflect this.

A friend asked me to look at PMCSierra recently (PMCS) ... It was up to 240 plus during the internet bubble and this company has survived at it currently trades north of 8 or 9....

So, if you were long during the boom times, your head was handed to you, if you were a long term investor...

For people, who want to short RIMM and AAPL, buy LEAP puts and please do not short...

And, if you short, keep loss control by adding stop loss orders.

Best regards...
 
long term shorting AAPL is bad bad advice. They are on a prolonged run that is not going to stop in the next few years, unless Steve Jobs has a heart attack and dies. The only thing that even breaks the ups is real weakness in the stock markets in general.

There is no data that supports this crazy idea.
 
Quote from Nattdog:
If you don't like a stocks long term prospects, don't own it for the long term. but for god sakes don't short it. Shorting is the worst most money losing strategy of all time, and shorting and holding is even worse. It always facinates me that small speculators are facinated with shorting and making short calls. I think it is an ego thing, the "Im smarter than the suckers," a tyro's cockyness that in fact makes one more stuped and more of a sucker than those one considers a sucker. Dangerous stuff.
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Big props for this post. Should be made a sticky around here!!!!
 
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