As someone who has been a long-time losing trader, I am hoping to be the exception to that observation rather than yet another instance that proves the rule. But, if I fail to transform myself, I will not blame Seykota!
Why Profitable Trading Is So Difficult
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As someone who has been a long-time losing trader, I am hoping to be the exception to that observation rather than yet another instance that proves the rule. But, if I fail to transform myself, I will not blame Seykota!
The key word, though, is "want". If you want to, there's no reason why you can't.
I don't trade like Redneck...
Wait...you know, it's actually quite possible that I do trade like Redneck.(Seriously, I owe that guy a million thanks for latching me onto the multiple chart idea.)
Nod, Can you please elaborate on this multiple chart idea? Thanks.
As for why people ask for proof... it is simple human nature...
Imagine you are at work and someone makes claims of greatness around the water cooler or breakroom.... be it huge trading gains, or can bench press huge amount of weight, or run a mile in a minute, or hit a PGA level golf score. Surely some people will want to see them in action, right?
Now imagine if that person won't let anyone come into the weight room with them, or refuses all offers to play golf with others, or won't go running with anyone..... then office gossip will start up and some people will whisper "I don't think he/she can do those great claims....." That is just the way it is.
I just wonder why so many people wont do simple assignments or backtesting, especially if the method is objective and codable...
Imagine you are at work and someone makes claims of greatness around the water cooler or breakroom.... be it huge trading gains, or can bench press huge amount of weight, or run a mile in a minute, or hit a PGA level golf score. Surely some people will want to see them in action, right?
Now imagine if that person won't let anyone come into the weight room with them, or refuses all offers to play golf with others, or won't go running with anyone..... then office gossip will start up and some people will whisper "I don't think he/she can do those great claims....." That is just the way it is.
I just wonder why so many people wont do simple assignments or backtesting, especially if the method is objective and codable...
Depends on the human. I couldn't care less about someone's claims of success. If I have no interest in copying them, what is it to me? Whether they're making tons or lying through their teeth is irrelevant. All that matters to me is my trading.
Blasphemous! Certainly you are not suggesting that people (traders) be responsible for themselves.
Some realtime analysis: QQQ now at 86.80. My models tell me to move from long side of strong stocks to short side of weak stocks.
I believe that trading is more likely a zero to negative sum activity than not.
I believe that trading is more likely a zero to negative sum activity than not.
One hour later: QQQ at 86.56. Negative excursion=0 (~0.01). Reward/Risk=+24.
No, I asked people who PM’d me for help to identify a specific price action pattern (which I described in detail) over a 2-week period (10 trading days) and conduct a specific analysis of the price action surrounding each appearance of that setup.
Maybe some have done it, but none has turned in their assignment.
I’ve posted live trades on ET for years. More importantly, I’ve posted market analysis leading into the trades, and I’ve posted illustrations of the price action surrounding the trades (several times a week in my old day trading journal, in fact). There are similar presentations by traders and educators all over the net. Those who want what I have are free to get it, but they have to do the work.
Hi, R! Thanks for your kind words! You sure would know where I put on my trades; you were there during the entire Birth of a Method!
Nice, Hitch! Thanks for showing that it’s possible to capture 40 ticks profit in a day.
Are you trading piker size like us gurus?
In a nutshell, the point of this thread is to emphasize the importance of learning to read price action so you're trading with the side who has the greatest advantages, and also the importance of capturing the price action patterns that lead into a strong directional move at the hard right edge and conditioning yourself to recognize, and be comfortable trading, those patterns in a way that places you on the team more likely to win.
As you say with far fewer words: Preparation.
Live calls mean little. I think the analysis of unfolding price action such as that which I provided yesterday on this thread, is far more beneficial than calling trades. Anyone following along then may have learned how to trade in lukewarm conditions (chop) in the event they can't prevent themselves from trading all the time.
Now that is useful analysis. Price hit a key multi-day supply line, and if you’re an anticipatory trader, the method you describe places the odds of gains in your favor.
It might be, but that is not the direction I choose to trade spreads. I found long ago some instruments are more prone to trend much better than say Indexes, especially the ES. Crude Oil or Emini Russell is a perfect example, it often goes sideways for a few hours, then takes off. My style of trading chop is reversion to the mean, just like prems/discounts in options, I do scalp with the trend 75% of the time, just waiting for the snap back to reality and if it doesn't happen quickly enough, try to get out with a tick. Just having a method is not always good enough, often times it is the "little things" or "nuances" that takes you from good to a very good trader. Reading beyond the charts, studying what has happened more times than not in the past and why? Dealing with spreads, I look at last 5/10 years seasonality, I want the edge to be on my side, no guarantee it be a profitable trade, but want to see that in the past it was 80% trade for so many weeks or months. Once I have this idea of what the spread should do, then I apply my method and wait for a signal, and even then is when money management rules comes in. I am not one who has much patience after I have put on a trade even if long term, my back testing shows me this in how I design my methods.
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