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[Rearden Metal]

Quote from gbos:



First of all the stock market as a whole grows no more than 4 – 5% a year on average

Check your premises.

According to MER, from 1926-2000, the U.S. stock market provided investors with an <b>average 13.4% annualized return.</b>

http://www.mlim.ml.com/content/Private/pdfs/pi_pres_mkt_volatility.pdf#search='s%26p%20average%20annual%20return%2019002000'

Futures, derivatives and forex are all zero sum games (before commissions and other costs of trading) .

Historically however, holding equities long is truly a positive sum game.

 

[gbos]

DJI at 2 january 1926 was at 158, today is at 11120

This is 5.5% annually.

Taking into account dividends will give more than this but then also you have to take into account the inflation adjustment.

And these returns are with hindsight of the US stock market outperformance. Try to construct a balanced portfolio including different markets with what a savvy investor would own back then and see to what average returns you will arrive.

Regards