Why Not Buy/ Hold Long / Roll to next series

J

John9999

I have taken time off from trading to regroup. I found out that I really like the way it is to not have to watch every little wiggle during the day for NQ / ES / TF/ YM...

We all know there is a very solid Long bias in place.

When I look at my performance, and even look at performance of professional traders that offer there services.... not my self or them can beat the performance of just going long, hold till rollover and do it all again.

sure, there are drawdowns like we had earlier this year,,,,

or maybe I look at the Leveraged Index Mutual funds,,,, not sure if they go to cash or not when things turn down on their underlying index

comments please
 
John9999 said:
I have taken time off from trading to regroup. I found out that I really like the way it is to not have to watch every little wiggle during the day for NQ / ES / TF/ YM...

We all know there is a very solid Long bias in place.

When I look at my performance, and even look at performance of professional traders that offer there services.... not my self or them can beat the performance of just going long, hold till rollover and do it all again.

sure, there are drawdowns like we had earlier this year,,,,

or maybe I look at the Leveraged Index Mutual funds,,,, not sure if they go to cash or not when things turn down on their underlying index

comments please
More...

Having looked at day trading, swing trading and position trading (as opposed to buy and hold), what I have observed trading all these years, learning on my own that the hardest thing with position trading or buy and hold are the drawdowns. A stock that gets battered could be stuck in lower prices for years, decades and you will be stuck with negative returns for years on down. That is the reality of it. CSCO is $42.46 right now. Compare that to its highs in the dot com bubble when it reached $100-$120.00 at its peak. That was how many years ago? Let us just say 18 years and if you bought at the peak at say just $100.00, you would still be down 58% of your monies 18 years going and still waiting? So, you waited 18 years and did not even earn one cent during those 18 years? Think about that, long and hard!
 
HMMM... I have thought about a simple 15 day Moving Average... if it closes for the day below the MA I sell,,,, not looking to go short,,, wait for it to close above MA again and go long

it is trading but certainly not day trading,,,,which in over 7 years plus of active trading has just not worked for me.
 
John9999 said:
HMMM... I have thought about a simple 15 day Moving Average... if it closes for the day below the MA I sell,,,, not looking to go short,,, wait for it to close above MA again and go long

it is trading but certainly not day trading,,,,which in over 7 years plus of active trading has just not worked for me.
More...

The way I understood your original post is that you would hold your trades on a long term basis like maybe, years and ignore the fluctuations and drawdowns. I was just basing my remark on what you have posted. It seems to me you are now talking about short term trading which is a way different way of trading as well! Each method carries its own risks and challenges as well as rewards.
 
well,,, I am just thinking this out... I am sure at this point that day trading is not going to work for me. I sure have put in a ton of effort, just doesn't work for me.
 
I read your opening post the same way as @smallfil

Outside of the written confusion, the most important thing to remember is you have learned what does not work for you!! And as you know, things that do work for you, are not the same things that work for others.

Good luck
 
You can make great money in any holding time, none are really inherently better than others. What's really important is that you choose a style which you are personally compatible with and will be able to continue using for a long time.
 
Yes yes.... I have finally come to grips with the fact that day trading and being flat in Futures at the close is not for me. I also, do not believe it generates any greater gains than a more swing type trading. Holding for days to months.

I just ran NQ for 2018.... just buy and roll the Mini contract and you are up 927 points...

exit at a close below 15 day MA and re-enter,,, it is 8 trades and 960 pts...

take the opposite side Short/Long on the MA crossover ... it is 15 trades , but it does add approx 200 points to the total
 
Buy and hold/covered call guy here. I've always liked buying things like QQQ (at say below $180.). Then do a covered call of the Jan 20 $180. If it gets called away you have the option income and dividend. If you hit a recession (say it drops to $120.), in Jan 2020 do a covered call of the $160. for 2022. You will have made some income...Not great. If it doesn't get called away do another call way out of the money...
 
It is up to individual preference / personality.

Some prefers long term investment and would buy and hold for months. They dislike very close monitoring and are prepared for very hugh paper loss.
Their performance will only be known months or even years later.
By the time you know your performance, it might be too late.


Some prefers day trading ie open and close position within minutes / hours.
They are ok with concentrating on trading for hours.
They take advantage of major news / events which can happen anytime.
Their performance will be known within few hours.


Either way will work.
Choose which ever way suits you and choose the one that works for you.

for me, I only do day trading.
 
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