Why most traders fail
- Thread starter LondonUSTrader
- Start date
Trader's psychology and Iceberg perception of the odds against the trader, meaning that the trader didn't correctly perceive from the beginning that the odds against him is so big enough than the potential profit that banks, brokers have falsely made him believe. The underlying part of the iceberg odds are the house, brokers, another traders and Jim Cramer (Wall Street Guru). 
Everything is rigged against the trader from the wide bid/ask spreads, the feeds, slippage, and randomness.
Bullshit.
This is akin to saying that markets move for no reason whatsoever, and that trades are taken "just to see what happens," or for no reason at all. This would be the definition of insanity (of course, this ET, isn't it). Markets move on supply and demand. If there is not enough trade at one level, the market moves to the level where it can trade.
Markets are fractal which means scalable across any timeframe. Read Benoit Mandelbrot, but even better, spend a few hours looking at charts. If the price and time scaling were removed, yuo'd have no idea whether yuo were looking at a 5 min, 10 min, 18.3 min, 33min, 87 min, daily, weekly or monthly chart. This means those things that apply to, say, a daily chart will apply to a 5 min chart.
When you zoom out to a 3 year timeframe the chart may appear parabolic but when you zoom in to a 3 month chart it is linear or even flat. Which do you use? 3 month or 3 year? This is called the rescale problem and there exists no solution to it.
The baseline chart for inflation becomes parabolic over a long enough timeframe as does the S&P chart so a chartist could assume that based on this parabolic chart the S&P should fall 30% but compounded growth such as riskfree interest is parabolic.
The baseline chart for inflation becomes parabolic over a long enough timeframe as does the S&P chart so a chartist could assume that based on this parabolic chart the S&P should fall 30% but compounded growth such as riskfree interest is parabolic.