Why most BTC speculators will MAKE money

[peilthetraveler]

I read an article that said that one of the main problems of bitcoin is that it is so volatile, and hence won't be accepted universally. And this makes complete sense to me.

If you want to use a currency system to pay for stuff, it needs to have small fluctuations. The Canadian dollar lost about 5% of value against the US$ in a couple of weeks just last month and this has caused major headaches. But its only 5%! How the heck can you expect to use a currency that swings in the double digits of % so often? It is akin to hyper inflation one day, and major deflation the next. This is not a stable system. Either the fluctuations have to stop or it can't be accepted as universally as you would like.

I don't doubt that many people will make a killing on it, maybe they already have, and there will be major losers, but no large business would deal with this at this stage. Sure I heard a guy paid for Tesla car in bitcoins, but I'm sure it was to a dealer who was also caught up in the craze and most probably the sole owner of the business. Point being, the majority cannot use it at this point.

Issue has already been addressed. Coinbase and bitpay transfers the btc to dollars at point of sale, so no risk for business if they dont want the risk of holding bitcoin.

And no large business you say? You mean like overstock.com? http://www.overstock.com/bitcoin

Or zynga?

http://www.coindesk.com/games-giant-zynga-playing-bitcoin/

Or newsweek?

http://www.newsweek.com/newsweek-becomes-first-magazine-accept-bitcoin-pitches-228533

But none of the really big big businesses would adopt it, would they? I mean...like Google?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygre...exploring-possible-bitcoin-integration-plans/

 

[Pekelo]

Gotta love it when people actually think this is true. .

The point is, the usage is already limited in 2 huge countries and bitcoin is still in just Beta. :eek:

Now you want lies? How about the rarity issue? Or bringing up divisibility when it is irrelevant to divide into worthless units??? (I could divide a penny into 100 parts, but what is the point?)

Now let's mention the literally dozens of problems (have you heard of timejacking) that are still unsolved, then we can talk about the future of bitcoin.

Or send me a PM when they have a Release Candidate at least.

 

[peilthetraveler]

The point is, the usage is already limited in 2 huge countries and bitcoin is still in just Beta. :eek:

Now you want lies? How about the rarity issue? Or bringing up divisibility when it is irrelevant to divide into worthless units??? (I could divide a penny into 100 parts, but what is the point?)

Now let's mention the literally dozens of problems (have you heard of timejacking) that are still unsolved, then we can talk about the future of bitcoin.

Or send me a PM when they have a Release Candidate at least.

Going to reverse it on you a little.

How many countries can you go to that you can use US dollars? Maybe 10-15% of the world will accept them as payment for goods & services? And the dollar has been around for 100s of years! :eek:

Now lets mention the literally dozens of problems that are still unsolved with the USD. Have you heard of counterfeiting? Money printing? Being forced to pay 35% of all the coins you mine to the government? (you like that bitcoin reference?) How about the fact that if you hold USD, it is GUARANTEED to go down in value every single year? Why would you hold it? Because men with guns tell you thats what you have to use!


According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.

The average fiat currency lasts for about 27 years. The world has been fiat for about 44 years now...all countries are in debt to their eyeballs (us especially) So what's going to happen? Cryptocurrencies are going to happen.

 

[Hoi]

Going to reverse it on you a little.

How many countries can you go to that you can use US dollars? Maybe 10-15% of the world will accept them as payment for goods & services? And the dollar has been around for 100s of years! :eek:

Now lets mention the literally dozens of problems that are still unsolved with the USD. Have you heard of counterfeiting? Money printing? Being forced to pay 35% of all the coins you mine to the government? (you like that bitcoin reference?) How about the fact that if you hold USD, it is GUARANTEED to go down in value every single year? Why would you hold it? Because men with guns tell you thats what you have to use!


According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.

The average fiat currency lasts for about 27 years. The world has been fiat for about 44 years now...all countries are in debt to their eyeballs (us especially) So what's going to happen? Cryptocurrencies are going to happen.

Well said ! (and Trolls like Pekelo will die, poor).

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

While virtual currencies ARE going to be increasingly 'the thing', BitCoin isn't going to be one of them. With somewhere in the region of 45% of Bitcoin Exchanges either going bust, running off with the loot or being sequestered by national authorities and the volatility inherent in the design of the mining technique making it far too risky for serious investment or trading, Bitcoin is going to be a prime example of selling to the greater fool.

 

[Hoi]

While virtual currencies ARE going to be increasingly 'the thing', BitCoin isn't going to be one of them. With somewhere in the region of 45% of Bitcoin Exchanges either going bust, running off with the loot or being sequestered by national authorities and the volatility inherent in the design of the mining technique making it far too risky for serious investment or trading, Bitcoin is going to be a prime example of selling to the greater fool.

You have no idea how much is already invested in the Bitcoin-network and Eco-system (it's nearing $1 billion this year). This will not die by some small childhood illness.

 

[Pekelo]

Going to reverse it on you a little.

How many countries can you go to that you can use US dollars?.

Dude, seriously. You are such a cultist. When I bring up problems with your cult, you are supposed to DEFEND them, instead of bringing up problems with other cult.

I don't care what the problem is with the US dollar, we are talking about bitcoin....

Well said ! .

Another cultist. And of course anyone who has valid criticism is the enemy or at least a troll...

You have no idea how much is already invested in the Bitcoin-network and Eco-system

The amount invested doesn't always equal success. Yahoo invested 6 billions in broadcast.com and they lost it all.... I dare you to type it in...

 

[just21]

While virtual currencies ARE going to be increasingly 'the thing', BitCoin isn't going to be one of them. With somewhere in the region of 45% of Bitcoin Exchanges either going bust, running off with the loot or being sequestered by national authorities and the volatility inherent in the design of the mining technique making it far too risky for serious investment or trading, Bitcoin is going to be a prime example of selling to the greater fool.

What is the market profile chart of bitcoin looking like?

 

[Hoi]

And of course anyone who has valid criticism is the enemy or at least a troll...

Yes indeed: if you call the following "valid criticism", while it's debugged several time before, then you are just a troll repeating the same nonsense:

Now you want lies? How about the rarity issue? Or bringing up divisibility when it is irrelevant to divide into worthless units???

OK, I will try it for you once more:


Usefulness + Rarity = Value.

Let's compare it with Water.
Water is extremely useful (you will die without it) so its value depends on its rarity. The availability of water is highly correlated to its Eco-system : Here in the Netherlands drinking water is available for free (costs $0.0013 per Liter). But in the Sahara desert, water is very rare and expensive.

Now look at decentralized crypto currencies. They are very useful (have explained that before) but are they rare to justify a high value? There are so many versions, are they all rare or just a few?
Also here (like the Water example), it helps to understand that there are two Eco-systems: SHA-256 and sCrypt. These two eco-systems aren't compatible. They are separated networks of different Mining-hardware.

Within the SHA-256 eco-system Bitcoin is King (99% of the whole) and there is no competition within this eco-system at all. Within the sCrypt eco-system Litecoin is (still) King (70%) but it's in this eco-system where the battle happens between many copy-cat currencies. You can say that within the sCrypt eco-system crypto-currencies aren't that rare, this in contrast to the SHA-256 eco-system where Bitcoin is the clear winner.

Now how rare are they? If we add Bitcoin and Litecoin together then there are currently 37 million coins in circulation (and this will not grow much in the next few years). Which is quite rare if the world's population discovers its usefulness.
Actually, it doesn't matter which coin or how many coins together are popular as long as the sum is Fixed and much less than world's population: then they are rare.

But is Bitcoin from the SHA-256 eco-system more valuable than Litecoin from the sCrypt eco-system? They both have a fixed maximum coins: Litecoin 4 times more than Bitcoin. So on rarity alone, Litecoin should be priced 25% of Bitcoin. Which isn't the case at all. It's Bitcoin's usefulness which makes it 40 times more valuable (you can simply use it in more places in the world and on the Internet). It's the economic law of the "Network Effect" which makes Bitcoin, as first mover, more useful and very hard to replace by another competitor.

So it's actually: Usefulness + Rarity + NetworkEffect = Value.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

You have no idea how much is already invested in the Bitcoin-network and Eco-system (it's nearing $1 billion this year). This will not die by some small childhood illness.

Are you saying there is a correlation between worth as defined by any abstract measure and viability? Bitcoin is certainly for you if you are. While I have your attention, I have a few, just a very few rare tulips that are worth $150,000 each. I wouldn't normally dream of parting with them as they're going to be worth ten times that in a month's time, but as you are a fellow connoisseur of the abstractions of value, I could let you have one for say, $250,000. Payment in US$ - BTC not accepted here.