Why Israel will *not* attack Iran

377OHMS

377OHMS

Its clear that the US isn't going to attack Iran or help Israel attack Iran and that is being reported in the current news cycle.

So why doesn't Israel attack Iran unilaterally? Isn't their military supposed to be very capable?

Its like this. Israel has F-15 Strike Eagles and F-16 Falcons and they operate them very expertly but the biggest ordinance those aircraft can carry are about 2,000 lbs each.

The bunker-buster bombs being discussed for use in Iran weigh up to 30,000 lbs each. Israel has no B-1 bomber, no B-2 bomber and no B-52 bombers either. They don't have any viable aircraft that can deploy or drop a real bunker-buster bomb. You can't just kick a bunker-buster out of the back of a cargo aircraft as there is very precise targeting information needed and the aircraft must penetrate some serious air defenses. You can't just lumber in there in a C-130 with a bunker-buster in the back and push it out over the target.

The point is that the decision to attack Iran lies with Barrack Obama and if he doesn't agree to employ US bombers for the job then there simply will not be any attack. Since Obama has made it very clear that he is not going to attack Iran it seems to me that it just isn't going to happen.

Today the SWIFT people announced that they are no-kidding preventing Iran from transacting oil sales through their system and that means any bank using the SWIFT system will not be able to process transactions for Iran. Almost *all* of the worlds banks use SWIFT so Iran is going to face some serious economic hardship and the citizens of Iran are the ones who are going to suffer. I'm hoping there will be an uprising that manages to oust the theocrats and that Iran will return to a secular government and give up its nuclear weapons program.
 
Would you favor the U.S. attacking Iran? If so, when? Perhaps preferring to have Israel do it first? This is a pretty complex issue, and I would like to see your thoughts on it.


c
 
I'm not sure who is spinning what here because I noticed that story today also. But below is part of a CNN article from March 13th 2012 that directly disputes the payload capabilities of the Israeli aircraft. Also, Israel may have sub launched missles that could deliver a large payload if their accuracy can be relied upon.

The strike aircraft would carry bunker-busting GBU-28 bombs -- 5,000-pound bombs to "go after hardened and buried sites," Barrie said.

Each F-15I could carry up to three bunker-busters, he said, depending on whether they are configured to carry the maximum number of bombs or the largest possible amount of fuel.

The American military has an even larger bunker-buster, the 30,000-pound GBU-57, but there's "no indication the Israelis have requested that weapon" or that Israel has the B-2 or B-52 bombers needed to deliver it, Barrie said.

Like other experts, he based his analysis on the assumption that if Israel mounted an attack, it would do so without American help.

There would be at least four primary targets, said Emily Chorley, a nuclear expert at Jane's: the Natanz and Fordo nuclear enrichment plants, the Esfahan uranium conversion facility, and the Arak nuclear complex.

Esfahan and Arak are above ground and are "relatively vulnerable to aerial attack," she said.

But Natanz, in the center of the country, is buried under 33 feet of earth and 6 feet of concrete, Chorley said, making it "very hard to penetrate."

Fordo, near the holy city of Qom, is "even more difficult" because it is deeply buried in a mountain, she said.

Dropping a bunker-busting bomb on Fordo actually might make it less vulnerable, Chorley said, since collapsing the entrance without destroying the facility would protect it from further bombing.

"It's questionable whether Israel is capable of destroying it in an air-launched attack," she said.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/13/world/meast/israel-iran-attack/index.html
 
Quote from pspr:

I'm not sure who is spinning what here because I noticed that story today also. But below is a CNN article from March 13th 2012 that directly disputes the the payload capabilities of the Israeli aircraft. Also, Israel may have sub launched missles that could deliver a large payload if their accuracy can be relied upon.

The strike aircraft would carry bunker-busting GBU-28 bombs -- 5,000-pound bombs to "go after hardened and buried sites," Barrie said.

Each F-15I could carry up to three bunker-busters, he said, depending on whether they are configured to carry the maximum number of bombs or the largest possible amount of fuel.

The American military has an even larger bunker-buster, the 30,000-pound GBU-57, but there's "no indication the Israelis have requested that weapon" or that Israel has the B-2 or B-52 bombers needed to deliver it, Barrie said.

Like other experts, he based his analysis on the assumption that if Israel mounted an attack, it would do so without American help.

There would be at least four primary targets, said Emily Chorley, a nuclear expert at Jane's: the Natanz and Fordo nuclear enrichment plants, the Esfahan uranium conversion facility, and the Arak nuclear complex.

Esfahan and Arak are above ground and are "relatively vulnerable to aerial attack," she said.

But Natanz, in the center of the country, is buried under 33 feet of earth and 6 feet of concrete, Chorley said, making it "very hard to penetrate."

Fordo, near the holy city of Qom, is "even more difficult" because it is deeply buried in a mountain, she said.

Dropping a bunker-busting bomb on Fordo actually might make it less vulnerable, Chorley said, since collapsing the entrance without destroying the facility would protect it from further bombing.

"It's questionable whether Israel is capable of destroying it in an air-launched attack," she said.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/13/world/meast/israel-iran-attack/index.html
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The 5000 lbs bunker-busters can penetrate 30-40 feet of dirt and concrete. The big 30,000 lbs bunker-busters can evidently penetrate very deep and go through steel reinforced concrete.
 
Quote from 377OHMS:

The 5000 lbs bunker-busters can penetrate 30-40 feet of dirt and concrete. The big 30,000 lbs bunker-busters can evidently penetrate very deep and go through steel reinforced concrete.
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Right. But what happens if you drop two or more of the 5000 lb bombs in that same spot? Do you keep getting deeper?
 
The US could rent the necessary planes to Israel and get a signed agreement that they were to be used for peaceful purposes only. Then after the Israelis blow the Iranian nuclear program to oblivion the US could whip out the agreement, the Israelis could go "oops, sorry" and it would be all cool after that because between the Israelis and the US news blackout powers the story could end right there.
 
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