Why isn't everybody selling options?

Quote from MAESTRO:

I use it for delta compensation techniques, not for delta bets. There is meat there that I believe many have overlooked.

My point is that +500bp put/call will never trade to parity, so your target is moving. You have to model skew, speed and contamination. There is a lot of 3rd (and worse) 4th moment risk unless you're simply overwriting puts or dynamically-hedging a synthetic straddle. Maybe that's all you're doing, but with luck you took a vacation last week.
 
Quote from heech:

You're completely missing my point. Please go back and reconsider what I'm saying. The point isn't strike selection. The point isn't whether a passive "short straddle" is a winning strategy (I'm ABSOLUTELY not stating this). The point is how you *determine* whether any particular manager (or STRATEGY) has alpha.

I'm not. Two managers, "always in" the market, short index strangles. The only variable is bet-variation and strikes. There is little alpha there... not much more so than a passive index-replication.

*IMO* these are strategies that should not be employed passively, which relate to the best practice of determining alpha. I would never invest in a manager who sold a passive portfolio of strangles. It's suicide. I am stating that your application of alpha has no application in those scenarios.

This applies to any passive investment strategy.
 
Quote from atticus:

I'm not. Two managers, "always in" the market, short index strangles. The only variable is bet-variation and strikes. There is little alpha there... not much more so than a passive index-replication.

*IMO* these are strategies that should not be employed passively, which relate to the best practice of determining alpha. I would never invest in a manager who sold a passive portfolio of strangles. It's suicide. I am stating that your application of alpha has no application in those scenarios.

This applies to any passive investment strategy.
You must be missing my point, because I have made no position/statement regarding "passive investment strategies" in any context... well except as a footnote on that last post, saying that I believe options are largely fairly priced.

When I talk about strike selection, it has nothing to do with adding alpha. I'm referring strictly to differing standards when looking at their *historical* returns for signs of skill. Surely you agree with the statement that a manager selling straddles close to the market will have many more losing months than a manager who's dealing with strikes OTM?
 
Quote from heech:

You must be missing my point, because I have made no position/statement regarding "passive investment strategies" in any context... well except as a footnote on that last post, saying that I believe options are largely fairly priced.

When I talk about strike selection, it has nothing to do with adding alpha. I'm referring strictly to differing standards when looking at their *historical* returns for signs of skill. Surely you agree with the statement that a manager selling straddles close to the market will have many more losing months than a manager who's dealing with strikes OTM?

I am referring to your "consistency" comments in your post at 1:53pm. The only value in historical returns is during times of stress. None of these managers performed well in 2008, and many went debit. So any application of alpha in this space is inapplicable, IMO.
 
Quote from atticus:

My point is that +500bp put/call will never trade to parity, so your target is moving. You have to model skew, speed and contamination. There is a lot of 3rd (and worse) 4th moment risk unless you're simply overwriting puts or dynamically-hedging a synthetic straddle. Maybe that's all you're doing, but with luck you took a vacation last week.

This is difficult. Unless I describe the exact strategy I don't know how to illustrate my point. And yes, I was trading non-stop during the latest drop the same way as I did in 2008. You are correct, I am using synthetics (not the simple straddles or strangles or butterflies etc.). I use super replicates to make sure that my Delta-Vega balance is not out of whack. It was difficult last week, however, my draw-downs were not too large and I am above my high water mark already.
 
Quote from jr07:

If 80% of options expire worthless, as I read somewhere recently, why doesn't everybody sells calls and puts every month and duplicate?


Most options expire worthless because usually, only worthless options are allowed to expire.:p

Why would anyone give instructions for an ITM option to expire? Usually, they are sold or exercised.

Some ITM options may expire because of transaction costs or because they are not worth much and the holder would rather not take delivery. And some brokers may have higher auto exercise threshholds.

The 80% or whatever statistic does not mitigate the risk of selling options.
 
Quote from heech:

I'm potentially "okay" with occasional DDs of 40%; you can't use that alone as your manager selection criteria.

You cannot possibly apply this to managers in this space (Ansbacher, et al) as they will never return 40% in a similar time period.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

I use super replicates to make sure that my Delta-Vega balance is not out of whack. It was difficult last week, however, my draw-downs were not too large and I am above my high water mark already.

So either correlation risk (replication) or trivial exposures. My point is that the delta-vega ratios are a function of skew.
 
Quote from increasenow:

ya'll need to be thinking more of selling/writing naked options...that is where the HUGE cash is
That works best when you borrow a lot of money to do that !!!
 
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