Why isnt a Greece default+euro exit already priced in??

[Wallace]

Greece isn't priced in because the game's not yet over

if an anti austerity government is elected on June 17 which seems likely, the game
changes radically
because it's basically a statement that Greece will default on their debts
this then throws the whole EU in jeopardy because of other nationals' debts
at present, Greece is not going to default

IF a Greek anti austerity government, primarily Germany together with the ECB then
have to make the decision if they will pay - fund the money needed to secure Greece's
debt thereby preventing an EU failure

Greece leaving the EU is nothing, they're a small percentage of the EU population, it's
about the debt, and either way, default or no default, the debt still remains if not Greece

in June 2010 the euro dropped to 1.1875 during the 'fund Greece or not' process
after that there was a manufacturing boom for German, low euro = lots of exports
since higher highs follow highs and lower lows follow lows, the euro is likely to drop
below 1.1875 and maybe, continue down till it's par or close to with the $ —
I'm presuming Greek default

 

[What]

default+euro exit are not conclusive scenarios at the moment

the only conclusive scenario is that the situation is getting worse and that gets priced in every day.. greek national bank hit 20 year lows yesterday

 

[What]

Quoting from the Wall Street Journal:

".....

Q: Hello! To what degree are possible exit scenarios priced in? Prior to the repeat elections on 17 June, what would be the key events to watch, from the equity and debt valuation perspectives?
-vshamanov

Not very much. We¢re seeing big flights from equity markets in Spain and Italy right now, and the euro is down a few pennies against the dollar, but a euro exit is a big, big tail risk. If it happens, there will almost certainly be more consequences. The reason we aren¢t seeing them fully now is that it remains a tail risk. It is not inevitable, not in the short term at least.
- Charles Forelle

It¢s very hard also to know what to price in. It¢s not at all clear what sort of contagion would follow a Greek exit–collapses in asset markets in other euro-zone countries, runs on banks etc. etc.. In other words, you¢re in the realm of (Knightian) uncertainty rather than in the realm of risk. (To risk you can assign a probability)
- Stephen Fidler ............"

 

[spanish89]

Ahh well im a Opportunist trader (value-scalper)..

And so im planning on buying Jp Morgan on Monday or Tuesday when it hopefully dips to/below the 3256 support level,
holding for a 1-4days till it bounces approx 5% when il cash in.

Il then not rebuy it or make any buy trades till the market really dumps (after june 17th),
but instead will revert to scanning for any severely overvalued market which has virtually no volatility whatsoever normally (however in the result greece leaving euro and so worldwide markets meltdon) the market would rocket in 1direction.

And then will stick a trade on that market, and just leave till late June.