FYI hindsight should work 100% of the time and it should. Don't fool yourself and think it works in the future ...
Why is trading so difficult?
- Thread starter padutrader
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Of course, there is no guarantee but, the way it is structured is say XYZ stock typically has huge earnings say every May of each year on average and goes up 50%. Say the occurence happens 6 out of the last 8 years in the sample. No guarantee it will happen this year although, it may happen. Different businesses have different business cycles so, there is a rational basis to think it may work a good number of times. To be fair, you are taking a gamble. Just like when you place a trade using a setup you have in your stock trading system. There is no guarantee that it will work this time out. On a larger sample of hundreds of trades, if you have an edge, you should do okay and make some monies!
What if it is a coin flip each time and you lose 23 times in a row, I once lost 23 times in a row, but overall I didn't lose any money.
What happens if CEO retires, you betting on the man or the company?
Actually, I have know a few who did it the right way and didn't wipe out accounts. And 2 of the 3 were women, men overall are lazy animals, we know what we need to do but look for what is easiest, no easy, going to take time, money, and drive your emotions crazy. You have to be open minded and read much, after a few years you pretty much stop reading and just study charting. And the funny part of it all, once you have learned to trade, any market comes easier and to a degree you expect to be profitable on each trade, and you often say "was that it"? Forty years later, I am amazed at how much I have learned, often times knowing which bar will reversal, whether volume increases or decreases, and slightest changes of indicators can read if trend continuation or reversals. Knowledge is not read from a book, it is getting down and dirty and go bar by bar for 10,000 plus hours, and you better be overall enjoying it or you be hating it. Forty years, and last night found a new pattern and pulled all nighter to test it.
Chow baby.
I get what you are saying. Trying to keep an open mind and look at different things. Now, I am primarily a swing trader who looks at stockcharts, candlesticks and price action to determine how best to trade a stock. I took a 7 day trial on that trading system and I was not really sold on it 100%. After that I gave it up. Still, I thought that was probably, better than those selling their indicator settings for thousands of dollars. I do use risk management now compared to when I started trading. I did not know better then. Now, risk management is at the top of my list. I feel I am a better trader now and see the setups more clearly now than before. Still adding a new money management to my trading system which I have backtested and happy with the results. Only time will tell how much improvement I get out of that change since, I just incorporated it into my trading system.
Go ahead and mortgage your house and bet the ranch ! Go for it , no one will stop you. Better yet, do that and leverage yourself to the gills and get back to us on yr results .
I find that most newly modified/rehashed/renamed indicators are not the best, but have you tried to test the more common indicators?And have you had similar results as in 50/50?
I am not modifying indicators but, made changes to my money management part of my trading system. Actually, I use only indicators as a guide. My decision on a trade is based on the stockchart, price actions, candlesticks, support and resistance. That is all I use now.
Thinking your over simplifying this easy just follow your plan thing, you forget that the main reason that this field has so many losers is because they due lack the discipline to develop and execute their plan.
Was merely making a comment on indicators and that seasonality approach to trading. Other than the 7 day trial. I have not used that trading system. My risk management rules will prevent me from violating my appropriate position side per trade. My swing trading is based on candlesticks, stockchart, support and resistant levels, price action. Any indicator like a couple of moving averages on my stockchart is only a guide. I do not rely on indicators to make any trading decisions.
I was asking lylec305 and just to clarify i was referring to snake oilers who are coming out with new versions of indicators.