Why is trading so difficult?

Scataphagos said:
In addition....

1. Trading is more of a 50-50 proposition than aspiring traders hope/believe. In every trade there is a buyer and a seller... equally convinced that their side of the transaction is the correct play.

2. Losing is painful. Losing money is usually especially painful. We are hard-wired to avoid pain and that plays into how we cope with risk.

And then there's the "hope" aspect. "I hope I get lucky". Unfortunately, luck has a way of not showing up when we need it most.
More...

A note about "pressure"...

In pro golf, the "50% make" distance in putting is at ~10 feet. So... a golfer has a 10' put to win the tournament and take home the trophy. Pressure, right? (After all, if he misses he doesn't/or may not get the big prize.... he'll still get a good prize, but not the biggest one.)

Let's say the rules were different. As in, "if the golfer makes the 10' putt, he gets the trophy and $1MM, but if he misses the put, he has to write a check to somebody out of his own pocket for $1MM". That would be pressure. Though not for $1MM for retail screen jockeys like us, trading has this aspect.... "make the correct call, collect a check. If wrong, write a check". Also, it's easy for us to behave in such a way that our wins are small checks, but our writes are big checks. That adds to the difficulty of trading.

The good news... In trading you only need to be good at making a 6" putt.... the one between your ears. :)
 
Last edited:
In addition to Trading being completely contrary to Human Nature & proper action taken to be Counter Intuitive...

The second piece of difficulty is some that compare Trading to Gambling ... Placing a bet on a Football game, per say, one has "Defined Risk" built in... you either cover your bet or you do not.. & on rare occasions, one will push the bet or break even. Trading offers too much flexibility for the average individual to follow rigid discipline & allows one to "compromise" ones position & turn a simple 1:4 RR.. 3pt stop.. into an average down debacle that has one blowing up.

Putting a game on, risk parameters are built in by the book/ house, which prevents one from getting in serious trouble on a single bet.... Your $500 bet is either right/ wrong/ scratch...

In Trading, One need be right a multitude of times... At least 4x & possibly up to 7+ times...
Entry... Initial Stop... Trailing Stop... Exit.. (If a scaler like me)... Bump Trailer... Exit, etc.
Many, Many variables here in our Trading game... more so than just a couple of Green slots on the Roulette Wheel to skew the odds against us!

Something to think about.......
 
Xela said:
I'm far from convinced about that part.

I think unrealistic expectations ("thinking it's simple") are a common reason for failure, not for success.

Given how many people approach trading imagining that it's simple (especially naive spot forex beginners, partly because of the comparative lack of any significant entry-barriers, the readily available high leverage, and the "expert advisors" for MT4 offering the dream of automated income ... judging by all the participants in forums like Babypips and ForexFactory and the grotesquely misguided things they typically discuss), wouldn't one imagine that the success-rates might be very much higher than they are, if "thinking it's simple" were a reason for success rather than for failure?
confused-smiley-013.gif
More...

good point.

I will leave the question to the psychologist expert .
 
Last edited:
Scataphagos said:
A note about "pressure"...

In pro golf, the "50% make" distance in putting is at ~10 feet. So... a golfer has a 10' put to win the tournament and take home the trophy. Pressure, right? (After all, if he misses he doesn't/or may not get the big prize.... he'll still get a good prize, but not the biggest one.)

Let's say the rules were different. As in, "if the golfer makes the 10' putt, he gets the trophy and $1MM, but if he misses the put, he has to write a check to somebody out of his own pocket for $1MM". That would be pressure. Though not for $1MM for retail screen jockeys like us, trading has this aspect.... "make the correct call, collect a check. If wrong, write a check". Also, it's easy for us to behave in such a way that our wins are small checks, but our writes are big checks. That adds to the difficulty of trading.

The good news... In trading you only need to be good at making a 6" putt.... the one between your ears. :)
More...
Lee Trevino was being interviewed after making a big putt to win a tournament. The interviewer asked about how he handles that kind of pressure with so much money on the line. Lee answered "Hell, I'll tell you what pressure is. Pressure is playing the local public course in Dallas against the local hustler for fifty bucks...and you ain't got the fifty."
 
speedo said:
Lee Trevino was being interviewed after making a big putt to win a tournament. The interviewer asked about how he handles that kind of pressure with so much money on the line. Lee answered "Hell, I'll tell you what pressure is. Pressure is playing the local public course in Dallas against the local hustler for fifty bucks...and you ain't got the fifty."
More...

I heard him say that. He also said, "We all leak a little oil under pressure.... some more than others".

He is one of my favs. :)
 
Scataphagos said:
"make the correct call, collect a check. If wrong, write a check". Also, it's easy for us to behave in such a way that our wins are small checks, but our writes are big checks. That adds to the difficulty of trading.
More...
i was a good golfer but not good enough to be a pro.......so i appreciate what you are talking about
 
Xela said:
judging by all the participants in forums like Babypips and ForexFactory and the grotesquely misguided things they typically discuss), wouldn't one imagine that the success-rates might be very much higher than they are, if "thinking it's simple" were a reason for success rather than for failure?
More...

Years ago I bought a cutting edge, real-time system... satellite dish mounted on my air conditioner, data feed into my XT class computer (with 2x, 720K floppy drives and one 13" CRT monitor... cost >$10K, but presumed "worth it" if it gave me what I needed to trade well)... with the notion, "I'll gather all of the market info and distill it down to the essence to make the good trades". That's the notion of K.I.S.S. TONS of info, but not much of it actually worthwhile. Achieving K.I.S.S.... more difficult than it sounds.

IOW... it takes a BIG effort and some gray matter to make it "simple" enough to understand and have the confidence to execute.
 
Last edited:
Scataphagos said:
Years ago I bought a cutting edge, real-time system... satellite dish mounted on my air conditioner, data feed into my XT class computer (with 2x, 720K floppy drives and one 13" CRT monitor... cost >$10K, but presumed "worth it" if it gave me what I needed to trade well)... with the notion, "I'll gather all of the market info and distill it down to the essence to make the good trades". That's the notion of K.I.S.S. TONS of info, but not much of it actually worthwhile. Achieving K.I.S.S.... more difficult than it sounds.

IOW... it takes a BIG effort and some gray matter to make it "simple" enough to understand and have the confidence to execute.
More...
i see you have a dog
i have a 7 year lab.....he is the most handsome intelligent...unfortunately he show no interest when i show him charts
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top