Why is this market incapable of crashing??

Quote from spanish89:

Everyday no matter how horrific, dangerous, extremely volatile, (and on the brink of dwarfing the non-event of lehmans admitting they were too crap as traders) news/events/data comes out,
this market just physically cannot crash!

Every single time it tries to even it simply cannot get below 1% down intraday max,
before it then starts a slow ridiculously elongated and drawnout sideways move upwards non-stop for the following 6hours!! :confused:


Seriously now, what the fuck is causing this ridiculous disgrace??
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The market always demands the same thing of traders: you have to pick your spots. I've taken 7 ES short trades in the past 2 1/2 months since the ES high and had 6 winners, so there have been opportunities from my vantage point, but you can't force them.
 
I remember right after the flash crash, everyone on Zerohedge sounded like the OP. And the market took off for the next six months, fueled by low rates and POMO.

Could we be headed for the same?

:eek:
 
Nah, just a few months at most. (Including this month). We didn't pull back enough for a major rally.

If we get QE3 we could get a solid 5 months or more...

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I remember right after the flash crash, everyone on Zerohedge sounded like the OP. And the market took off for the next six months, fueled by low rates and POMO.

Could we be headed for the same?

:eek:
More...
 
I have no interest in whether it is a bull or a bear but maybe those record-level profit margins just might be a factor. Unless of course you don't want to tie any of it to anything.

Quote from jsp326:

Whatever you do, don't try to tie this rally to fundamentals. Price-to-forward earnings multiples have been worthless after the bubble and record-level profit margins.

The strangest thing (which we've seen before) are all the days where there's a huge ramp-up in the final minutes of trading. It happened July 3 and a few other times recently.
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Quote from jsp326:

Commodities have been falling like rocks since the beginning of March. This just looks like a normal retracement on a 6-month+ chart. And oil has a couple of gaps below that are just asking to be filled.
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CRB & the DJ UBS indexes both went through the 50 dma like it wasn't even there. Pause is inevitable of course, but it looks like a breakout to me.
Any one commodity, like CL, might not do as well; CL is right at the 50 dma and was down today even though both the CRB and the DJ UBS were up. Someone, I think here but it might have been somewhere else, posted that a bet on the NG/CL ratio going in favor of NG was a good one, for instance.
 
''Its physically impossible to 'trade what you see',
as the ONLY thing you can see is what has ALREADY HAPPENED IN THE PAST,"

You ever notice how a certain thing that happened in the past happen over and over again? When you notice that, you take a picture of it in your head and next time you see it you trade what you see.

"The experienced traders like me wait until there has been an extremely overdone move (for example a 10% crash in crude oil over just 2days),
and ONLY then do we enter a trade to BUY that market there to catch approx 2% snap-back bounce. The market is at its extreme weakest when its moved to extremely overdone levels in either direction,
and so anyone who attacks (enters trades) in the market when its at its strongest instead of at its weakest is seriously just a foolish retard!!"

So what is extreme? 10% is extreme overdone?

Oil crashed 10% in early May and you buy and scrape 2% and I sell where you buy and it crashes another 20%. So I'm a foolish retard, but I'm a smiling retard :D


jsp, regarding ramp up end of day, there's old saying that amatuers open the market, professionals close it.
 
It looks like the big guys aren't feeling a need to sell much yet. The current default is everyone being in wait & see mode. Volumes are light.
 
Quote from spanish89:

Everyday no matter how horrific, dangerous, extremely volatile, (and on the brink of dwarfing the non-event of lehmans admitting they were too crap as traders) news/events/data comes out,
this market just physically cannot crash!

Every single time it tries to even it simply cannot get below 1% down intraday max,
before it then starts a slow ridiculously elongated and drawnout sideways move upwards non-stop for the following 6hours!! :confused:


Seriously now, what the fuck is causing this ridiculous disgrace??
More...

I don't know why they won't answer you seriously. You gave one answer already in your other response. This disgrace is caused because your implied position sizes (by you or all those together who follow you faithfully as you announce your trades in advance) are much too large as a percentage of the entire market.

Assuming the market is a zero sum game (less fees) then when a trader gets too large, that trader can't win by definition. ( Think over 50% of the market as a limiting example). One eventually becomes the entire market.

Taking your rate of 25 times your capital return each year for three years and re-investing the results, for every dollar you started with you now have 15625 dollars. (I will ignore taxes and commissions since we don't know precisely how you generate those returns).

Since you sound very smart, you probably started with at least 10,000 dollars. So after three years you have at least 156,250,000 dollars. This year you will grow that to around 3,906,250,000 dollars. That is a pretty good return. (Much better than mine I will add!)

Like the grain of rice on the chessboard problem, you are very likely hitting a size that can't sustain your returns anymore. Hope that helps with your answer.
 
Oil crashed 10% in early May and you buy and scrape 2% and I sell where you buy and it crashes another 20%. So I'm a foolish retard, but I'm a smiling retard
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lol he is some nob head spread better who is incapable of posting without screaming about performance like a short dick screams about his dominance.
 
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