Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
Not quite follow what you mean and your chart doesn't help either.
Anyway, there's only one way to tell a difference between those who know and those who don't.
Those who know follow Higher Low and Lower High (-->BLASH & SHABL).
Those who don't know follow Higher High and Lower Low (--> BHASL & SLABH).
I don't know if it is just me, but throughout my trading experience (over 10 years) I have been afflicted by a serious ailment: I have always had this urge to enter a trade at a pivot point when the direction of price reversed. No matter the bad results due to the ailment I kept doing this, it is insane, isn't it? It is the very definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over expecting different results
Well, few months back I reached a point where I needed to get away from trading, for few months I stopped any trading, I stopped looking at charts and dedicated myself to other activities. It's been good. Then a few days ago I had a look at the charts (S&P 500 Future index) again and one thought pop into my mind as quite obvious: What if I just followed price instead of trying to catch the reversal? Of course it is a little more complicated than it seems as I still need to keep track of various TFs, keep track of what price is doing on higher TFs, and sometimes it actually make sense to expect a reversal but overall, for me it is such a basic change in how I look at price that it is a revolution on itself. Well I will soon restart some trading and will let you know how it is going.
Good trading to all
Well, few months back I reached a point where I needed to get away from trading, for few months I stopped any trading, I stopped looking at charts and dedicated myself to other activities. It's been good. Then a few days ago I had a look at the charts (S&P 500 Future index) again and one thought pop into my mind as quite obvious: What if I just followed price instead of trying to catch the reversal? Of course it is a little more complicated than it seems as I still need to keep track of various TFs, keep track of what price is doing on higher TFs, and sometimes it actually make sense to expect a reversal but overall, for me it is such a basic change in how I look at price that it is a revolution on itself. Well I will soon restart some trading and will let you know how it is going.
Good trading to all
It seems obvious when you're out of the market and looking in the back mirror. But once you get back in and have your money at stake, you go back to making predictions.
I like it.
Would just add …
Those who know, look forward.
I don’t like charts very much, especially those which put much weight on what has already happened.
What matters most is what’s going on.
…
Buying the 2nd or 3rd higher low is priceless,
Now … Use stop and make it trail.
The strategy should offer unlimited upside.
Or at the very least, limit the downside.
…
For too long I’ve been playing a losing game,
Any profit divided by infinite loss is zero.
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Priceless.
However, I have problem with this one. When it comes to trading, you have traders and investors all looking at charts of different timeframe. What you consider as "what has already happened" is just a starting point for others.
Now ask yourself. Does the lower timeframe charts affect the higher timeframe chart? Or does the higher timeframe affect the lower timeframe?
This is the TIME element of trading. Without understanding this, you're doomed to repeat your failure (well, not you per se).
I don't know if it is just me, but throughout my trading experience (over 10 years) I have been afflicted by a serious ailment: I have always had this urge to enter a trade at a pivot point when the direction of price reversed. No matter the bad results due to the ailment I kept doing this, it is insane, isn't it? It is the very definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over expecting different results
Well, few months back I reached a point where I needed to get away from trading, for few months I stopped any trading, I stopped looking at charts and dedicated myself to other activities. It's been good. Then a few days ago I had a look at the charts (S&P 500 Future index) again and one thought pop into my mind as quite obvious: What if I just followed price instead of trying to catch the reversal? Of course it is a little more complicated than it seems as I still need to keep track of various TFs, keep track of what price is doing on higher TFs, and sometimes it actually make sense to expect a reversal but overall, for me it is such a basic change in how I look at price that it is a revolution on itself. Well I will soon restart some trading and will let you know how it is going.
Good trading to all
I am still struggling on this exact problem and I suspect many traders are in the same situation. My understanding is that’s just how human perceives the price movements. It’s our innate cognitive and psychological trait. And that’s why it’s so difficult to overcome even after we fully realize the issue.
As schizo mentioned we tend to revert back to our instinctive approach while in the action no matter how it seems so clear to us when outside the market.
If you ever see my posts on ES Journal, you would see that I fade a lot as well. The problem isn't so much with fading, but what your expectation is and how you will manage the risk. Here are some questions to consider.
When you fade the top, are you looking for a complete trend reversal or a small pullback?
What do you believe usually happens at the top? Does it reverse in one go, as in a v-pattern?
Also do you know how many pullbacks there are typically in an intraday trend? Are you actively counting the number of pullbacks? (Oh, you didn't know that?
)Before fading, did you ever consider that "this could be a trap"? On that note, what do you consider as a trap?
I don't expect you to answer these questions. They're merely rhetorical questions that I want to think on your own.