Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[schizo]

Here's the reality

So what are the chances of the OP, or anyone, sharing secrets on a public internet site like this one...

And, in fact, the OP states this in black and white (2nd to last paragraph):

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340884

Apropos methinks the key lies in his last paragraph:

"It is a cruel and callous world - those that are not prepared to think and act for themselves are doomed to failure, as has been the case for generations, and will continue to be the case into the future!"​

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Why do you think the market is so "efficient"? Is it because traders (or bots) are really that smart? Au contraire! 80% (likely more) of them don't think and will ultimately lose. It's the minority 20% (likely less) that controls the market. They will dictate how the market should flow, be it up or down. On that note, success doesn't hinge on some elusive holygrail. It's more to do with psychology.

 

[baron193]

the OP has already told you, and it became obvious to him/her that a lot of traders do not know what is the obvious and simple understanding of what is required in order to trade any market without clouding your mind with the unnecessary, methods can be worked out around these basic requirements, as he said even if he did spell it out most would discount it as worthless.

 

[johnc19822]

Losers average losers

 

[johnc19822]

Check out my thread which is worth reading; you should find at least 1 idea in there to add to your trading plan.

 

[NotTheExpert]

Is the obvious noted by NYSESTOCKS that price has to be moving? Is he suggesting that price goes through different market conditions and price can literally be doing basically nothing? Also, this thread has me thinking in a couple of ways… such as:
— do I need to trade against other traders
— am I just trying to get the best price on existing trade ideas?
— I the matrix references refer to Deja Vu where the market repeats itself?
— is it all psychology? Because even my “psychology” isn’t so good in simulations
— determine how moves are made… I’ve started making more of an effort to determine this also such as observing more closely how retracements and legs add up to equal other legs potentially (still not fully seeing this yet..)
— is math or indicators needed? The OP seems to suggest that all you need are your eyes. If I do this, will I continue to fail or is this just another path that can still work today?

 

[NotTheExpert]

Is he possibly implying that there are multiple obvious reasons and not just one obvious? Is he saying you need an edge? If so, why does he so Backtesting is worthless? How else can you get an edge unless the edge is by being more mindful than other traders…? Am I missing something? Also, I couldn’t get the password for ANF options… is the obvious that you have to place a trade? Is the obvious that you have to win more than you lose?
the obvious that most traders are too lazy to figure out how to win at trading?

 

[schizo]

Is the obvious noted by NYSESTOCKS that price has to be moving? Is he suggesting that price goes through different market conditions and price can literally be doing basically nothing? Also, this thread has me thinking in a couple of ways… such as:
— do I need to trade against other traders
— am I just trying to get the best price on existing trade ideas?
— I the matrix references refer to Deja Vu where the market repeats itself?
— is it all psychology? Because even my “psychology” isn’t so good in simulations
— determine how moves are made… I’ve started making more of an effort to determine this also such as observing more closely how retracements and legs add up to equal other legs potentially (still not fully seeing this yet..)
— is math or indicators needed? The OP seems to suggest that all you need are your eyes. If I do this, will I continue to fail or is this just another path that can still work today?

You approach the problem from a "wealth accumulation" perspective. Why don't you switch gear and look at it from a "risk management" side of the equation?

 

[NotTheExpert]

According to the OP, all the risk management won’t help you if you don’t know the obvious

 

[NotTheExpert]

Low risk entry = Good risk-reward and high-probability win.

Don't you think? But then again, just what does "low risk entry" mean exactly? Perhaps that's where the obvious lies. Maybe it's so obvious that nobody cares to even look there. (This is giving me head cramps already )

Maybe at support/resistance. Still trying to figure this out. I’ve tried precise entries but those don’t seem to work or at least I haven’t gotten them to work

 

[schizo]

According to the OP, all the risk management won’t help you if you don’t know the obvious

Maybe your definition of risk management is different from mine, which includes BLASH and SHABL (as alluded by the OP at the outset of this thread). Also I think you're taking all this too literally. Perhaps that's why you can't see it? The OBVIOUS won't reveal to you as one of those "a-ha!" moments, but more as a culmination of experience.