Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[ironchef]

In order for anyone to become a student (of mine), it is much easier said than done.
You would need to be intune with a swing trading stocks long only mentality.
You would need to probably spend a couple of thousand dollars (that's not too much) on particular hardware.
You would need to be math savvy and enjoy coding.
You would need to set up software in a special configuration.
You would need to be a dedicated introvert nerd who can focus for hours in order to get where you want to fast.
You would need to understand my algos I think, some are a bit complex.
You would have the time to do all this.
Lining up all these ducks would be uncommon.

You also need to know the obvious.

Not nysestocks' obvious but @themickey's obvious .

 

[fairvalue]

I don't think this is THE obvious, but it's a step in the right direction. It at least adheres to the OP's statement about the need for BLASH and SHABL to become a successful trader.

So we can all agree that in order to buy low and sell high, you want to wait for a pullback in a rising trend, yes? Let that be the starting point for the next round of discussion.

I just wrote down, what was obvious for me in this chart.

 

[fairvalue]

In order for anyone to become a student (of mine), it is much easier said than done.
You would need to be intune with a swing trading stocks long only mentality.
You would need to probably spend a couple of thousand dollars (that's not too much) on particular hardware.
You would need to be math savvy and enjoy coding.
You would need to set up software in a special configuration.
You would need to be a dedicated introvert nerd who can focus for hours in order to get where you want to fast.
You would need to understand my algos I think, some are a bit complex.
You would have the time to do all this.
Lining up all these ducks would be uncommon.

It would; thx for being so precise for the apply conditions, now =) But it still does not answer the question, how to apply

 

[fairvalue]

I don't think this is THE obvious, but it's a step in the right direction. It at least adheres to the OP's statement about the need for BLASH and SHABL to become a successful trader.

So we can all agree that in order to buy low and sell high, you want to wait for a pullback in a rising trend, yes? Let that be the starting point for the next round of discussion.

So it is agreed, that to buy low and to sell high, want to wait for a pullback in a rising trend. Lets define the direction of a trend period as the respective EMA indicator. Prices above EMA equals an upward trend and prices below EMA equals a downward trend.


Purple vertical lines are interpreted as signals to enter market in the described direction.


Some assumptions made:

· This is a daily chart; therefore the signal today is a trading signal for tomorrow/the following day

· A pullback are at least two following days in the opposite direction; or

· An opposite move that counters the price move of the preceding trend days

· Ehlers entry definitions are applied


I added un updated version of that chart, where I tried to rule out hindsight; i.e. where I would have entered the market, if I didnt knew the future, in yellow. So why differs this?

 

[schizo]

I added un updated version of that chart, where I tried to rule out hindsight; i.e. where I would have entered the market, if I didnt knew the future, in yellow. So why differs this?

It's called RISK MANAGEMENT. You want to manage your risk for both entries and exits.

For example, in all these "Trading for Beginner" books, they all say you're supposed to EXIT your losing trades pronto. Well, I say you really should be looking to only ENTER trades with the lowest risk of being stopped out.

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Regarding the chart, this was not my chart so I would probably not trade exactly like it's shown. However, I completely agree with buying/selling the pullbacks. For example, I could sell short at (1) as the price crosses below the low of the highest candle. You could also sell once Ehler crosses below the overbought line, but that would be too laggy IMO.

Also the chart only shows you where to enter but not where to exit. For instance, (2) would be a good example. It would have turned out to be a losing trade no matter what. So the question is where should you have gotten out? Probably a tick or two above the high of the candle you entered.

I didn't completely understood your question so ain't sure if any of them addresses your concerns. Let me know if you got more questions.

 

[fairvalue]

It's called RISK MANAGEMENT. You want to manage your risk for both entries and exits.

For example, in all these "Trading for Beginner" books, they all say you're supposed to EXIT your losing trades pronto. Well, I say you really should be looking to only ENTER trades with the lowest risk of being stopped out.

----------------------------------

Regarding the chart, this was not my chart so I would probably not trade exactly like it's shown. However, I completely agree with buying/selling the pullbacks. For example, I could sell short at (1) as the price crosses below the low of the highest candle. You could also sell once Ehler crosses below the overbought line, but that would be too laggy IMO.

Also the chart only shows you where to enter but not where to exit. For instance, (2) would be a good example. It would have turned out to be a losing trade no matter what. So the question is where should you have gotten out? Probably a tick or two above the high of the candle you entered.

View attachment 328866

I didn't completely understood your question so ain't sure if any of them addresses your concerns. Let me know if you got more questions.

very much appreciated for taking your time

 

[Onra]

You have a belief about the market concept wrong, imo ironchef.
The market is not an artist.
The market is a machine.
Once you understand that which I did years ago, it becomes easier.
The machine kicks in and out of gear, going forward, backwards and disengages.
But the machine is at times 'overwhelmed' by emotional and erratic retail which causes the machine to disengage.
Sometimes its difficult to differentiate between retail and machine as imo blowoffs could be the deliberate attempts by machine to pop the market up or down to a) escape, b) enter c) reverse.

The machine is clever, tireless, focused, repetitive, predictable.
The machine operates by rules.
The machine is not emotional or artistic, but because the machine disengages, noobs have the wrong impression and jump to wrong conclusions as emotional retail trading takes over.

View attachment 326701

Can you see the machine?

Mick; in the original Obvious "an additional small calculation" was necessary too...
Is your example purely visual based?

 

[themickey]

Mick; in the original Obvious "an additional small calculation" was necessary too...
Is your example purely visual based?

Visual versus mathmatical?
It's not visual because imo, when visually humans see things they see things with too much bias.

About the markets being machines/robots, I'm more than ever convinced. The algos I write display it clearly.

I'll give an example:
Until basically yesterday when USA mkts had a very large breakout there was a pattern repeating continually. That pattern was:

a) The majority of all sectors could not break above the prior quarter High.
b) This month, the majority of stocks could not break above the last day of November.
c) Those that did, many then immediately stalled.
d) Currently all major indexes are just sitting below their ATH's. Russell 2000 is the exception at ~20% below, but notice it is now racing to catch up fast.

The exceptions to the lagards were gold which initially was well ahead of the pack, then stalled to underperform, now it is similar to all other sectors.
Other standout was uranium which like gold outperformed, now stalled to allow other sectors to catch up.
Crypto atm is well ahead of the pack on all levels.
Lithium is underperforming everything, but I think this because China has a stranglehold on lithium processing and somehow via hongkong/singapore exchanges are manipulating lithium price.
Copper is another in the dog box, as well Energy (oil & gas).

I track over 400 USA major stocks and commodities and another couple hundred on the ASX which look and compare levels, and I see this rythm play out, something will surge, then die briefly while something else takes a turn.

Some sectors staying down for very prolonged times, atm copper, nickel, rare earths, lithium, natural gas, coal (was doing ok but now slumped),

It's much easier to see and recognize this stuff in data form than visually via charts.

 

[Ed48]

Here's the reality

So what are the chances of the OP, or anyone, sharing secrets on a public internet site like this one...

And, in fact, the OP states this in black and white (2nd to last paragraph):

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340884

 

[ironchef]

Here's the reality

So what are the chances of the OP, or anyone, sharing secrets on a public internet site like this one...

And, in fact, the OP states this in black and white (2nd to last paragraph):

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340884

OP revealed it multiple times.

But OP wasn't talking to trading experts like @schizo or @themickey because they already know how to trade and don't need the obvious to make money.

OP was advising newbie traders who weren't profitable and were wondering why nothing worked for them.